Ramp to Camp: Predicting the Celtics’ 2024-25 Win Total originally appeared on NBC Sports Boston
The 2023-24 season Boston Celtics recorded the fourth-most wins in team history. So what does this group have planned for an encore?
For the fifth part of our Ramp to Camp 2024 series, we gave our panel a weekend layup: Give us a prediction for the Celtics’ 2024-25 win total and where they’ll finish in terms of standings in the Eastern Conference.
(See the the first four episodes of Ramp to Camp here.)
Unsurprisingly, our panel is pretty bullish on the Celtics staying atop the Eastern Conference. But their record projections suggest that their win total could fall from last season. Boston has 64 wins in the 2023-24 campaign, ranking behind the teams of 1972-73 (68 wins), 1985-86 (67) and 2007-08 (66).
But half of our panel believes the Celtics’ win total will drop significantly this season. Their reasoning is sound: No Kristaps Porzingis to start the seasonA Eastern Conference strengthenedand one fight against complacency when the ultimate goal can only be achieved in June.
History also suggests a potential decline. In 1973-74, the Celtics won just 56 games, while in 1986-87 they won 59.
But for us, the 2008-09 Celtics are an interesting team. And that group offers a road map to maintaining a high win total.
Like the 2007-08 team, these Celtics won a title in their first season after assembling an elite group of talent. Both teams returned very similar rosters. (The 2008-09 team lost James Posey but had the same starting five of Rajon Rondo, Ray Allen, Paul Pierce, Kevin Garnett and Kendrick Perkins.)
After a 19-game winning streak, the 2008-09 team was 27-2 heading into their Christmas Day showdown with the Los Angeles Lakers. Boston was 41-9 after another 12-game winning streak through early February, which put the team on a 67-game winning streak heading into the All-Star break.
Disaster struck in late February when Kevin Garnett injured his right knee at Utah. He sat out the next 13 games before attempting to return in late March. He ultimately sat out the rest of the season. The Celtics lost a seven-game series to the Magic in the Eastern Conference semifinals.
While the 2007-08 Celtics are glorified for forming the Banner 17 immediately after acquiring Garnett and Ray Allen, it’s fair to say that the 2008-09 team was even better. If Garnett doesn’t get hurt, it’s fair to wonder if the Celtics will challenge the franchise’s win total record and maybe even win another title.
This is our way of saying that the 2024-25 Celtics don’t necessarily need to take a huge step back with their win total this season. Not having Porzingis in the starting lineup isn’t ideal, but this team knows how to win without him. This team can also build on last season’s continuity and chemistry with the potential to make a comeback this year.
Emboldened by that 2008-09 team, we put the Celtics at 62-20 and another first-place finish in the Eastern Conference. It’s a small step back, but it would still represent a win total among the top 10 in franchise history.
They’ll need to show the same mental toughness as last year’s group to avoid losing streaks, but the talent is too great not to get back to the 60-win plateau.
Here are the rest of our panel’s predictions:
