Any effort to compare Ohtani to other stars must start there. Even Babe Ruth is far from an Apples-like counterpart.
As we will see, even this has complications, beyond the basic fact that every player is different and baseball is wildly unpredictable. Still, let’s do our best by finding some historic lineups for Ohtani the slugger at this point in his career, then evaluate how they performed afterward.
What we’re looking for here are hitters who performed similarly in their age 26-28 seasons as Ohtani did from 2021-23. Given that Ohtani struggled mightily during the 2020 campaign shortened by Covid, then made a huge improvement afterward, that’s the most reasonable threshold.
Here are some key offensive stats from Ohtani over those three seasons:
The next step was to research comps, prioritizing overall production (OPS+) and power (HR), as well as speed (SB). (It would seem inappropriate to include plodding hitters in the pool – we want athletic players here.) Given these parameters, there obviously aren’t many matches.
Returning to integration in 1947, Ohtani is only the 20th hitter to post at least 140 OPS+ (100 is league average), 90 home runs, and 30 stolen bases between the ages of 26 and 28. We narrowed that down to the 12 players whose numbers matched Ohtani best. Among those cut from this pool were Barry Bonds and Mike Trout, whose OPS+ numbers were actually way too high. high to pair with Ohtani, as well as Christian Yelich, who is still too early in his career to judge.
The remaining dozen players are (in reverse chronological order of their 26-28 seasons): Ryan Braun (2010-12), Alex Rodriguez (2002-04), Vladimir Guerrero (2001-03), Chipper Jones (1998-2000) , Ken Griffey Jr. (1996-98), Jeff Bagwell (1994-96), Albert Belle (1993-95), Dale Murphy (1982-84), Hank Aaron (1960-62), Mickey Mantle (1958-60) , Willie Mays (1957-59) and Duke Snider (1953-55).
Right off the bat: that’s a pretty impressive list of names. Eight of the 12 are in the Hall of Fame, and that would be nine of 12 if Rodriguez’s case wasn’t weighed down by a PED-related suspension.
But let’s dig a little deeper and look at how these players fared. After 28 years old. Given the contract length Ohtani is typically expected to command, we’ll start with a 10-year time frame and divide those dozen hitters into four general categories.
The dream scenario: Hank Aaron (162 OPS+ from ages 29 to 38), Willie Mays (159)
There’s not much to say here. It would be extremely difficult to compile a list of the five greatest players in Major League history without the presence of Aaron and Mays, and that’s not just because they were great in their 20s, but also because that they were great in their 30s – a much more difficult task. .
That would be a nearly impossible standard for Ohtani to achieve, but then again, he’s already accomplished things that seemed impossible before his arrival.
The very good scenario: Mickey Mantle (172 OPS+ from ages 29 to 38), Chipper Jones (146), Jeff Bagwell (144), Alex Rodriguez (142)
If Ohtani replicates what any of these players produced over these 10 seasons, his next team should be very happy with their investment.
Mantle wore down physically as he aged, missing time and retiring after his age-36 season, so he accumulated less than half the number of plate appearances as Aaron during that window from 29-38. Yet he performed at such a high level when he was available – including a 194 OPS+ between ages 29 and 32 – that the overall result must be considered a resounding success.
The other three, who were roughly contemporaries in the 1990s and 2000s, all experienced some decline late in their careers. (Rodriguez missed his age-38 season due to suspension, and Bagwell retired after an injury-plagued age-37 campaign.) But each remained a power hitter for most of that 10-season span.
The mixed scenario: Albert Belle (140 OPS+ from ages 29 to 38), Duke Snider (135), Vladimir Guerrero (133), Ken Griffey Jr. (124), Dale Murphy (117)
Each of these players had good times and at least a few great seasons after the age of 28. Belle, Griffey and Snider all produced multiple 40-homer seasons, and Murphy came close. Guerrero won the AL MVP award and finished third the other two years.
But each has also had difficult times, mainly due to injuries. A degenerative hip disease ended Belle’s career after her age-33 season. Snider averaged about 300 plate appearances per year after age 30 and retired after his age 37 campaign. Guerrero was only a little above average with the bat after age 33 and last played at age 36. Griffey battled constant physical issues in his 30s and had his final notable offensive season at age 35. Murphy was a below average hitter after age 31.
The main lesson here: Father Time is undefeated.
The disappointing scenario: Ryan Braun (120 OPS+ from 29 to 38 years old)
Braun was the NL MVP at age 27 and runner-up at age 28, leading the NL in OPS in both seasons. But he played only 61 games the following season due to a PED-related suspension and never approached the same level of success again. Braun remained an above-average hitter for the rest of his career (ages 29-36), but only had two seasons with a score above 116 OPS+ in over 61 games.
Generally: That’s half of our 12 players who would be considered obvious successes and the other half who would likely be classified as question marks, at best, given the type of contract Ohtani projects to land. It’s hard to imagine that Ohtani won’t give his next club at least a few good seasons with the bat, but the real question is whether he holds up well enough physically to continue doing damage at least until thirties.
Usually, this type of exercise can focus on players sharing a position with the free agent in question. But it’s tricky with Ohtani.
Due to his exploits on the mound, Ohtani is limited to DH. This, in turn, maintains the WAR totals he can produce as a position player, since WAR includes a position adjustment that penalizes DHs most severely. Conversely, this group of 12 players includes five who were primarily center fielders and none spent much time at DH in their youth.
Of course, the difference between Ohtani and your typical DH is that Ohtani isn’t stuck there because he can’t play a position competently or he can’t stay healthy enough to be on field. Ohtani spent time in the corner outfield in Japan — he also recorded 8 1/3 innings out there for the Angels in 2021 – and given his athleticism and adaptability, there’s no doubt he could play at least a solid right fielder in MLB should his time on the mound come to an end. (If Ohtani’s arm health was a problem, perhaps he could follow Bryce Harper’s lead and rather play first base.)
And then there’s Ohtani’s pitch, which is a whole other conversation. Suffice it to say, the condition of the right-hander’s elbow as he returns from a second major surgery makes that part of his future much more difficult to project than his bat.
But importantly, it also gives him another avenue through which he could add significant value to his team in 2025 and beyond. If Ohtani ends up somewhere in the middle of this group of hitters but also throws at least a few more 3-6 WAR seasons on the mound – he had a 4.8 average from 2021-23 – we’re talking about a player. who could save every moment of a record contract.
