Projecting Phillies 2025 Rosters and X-Factors originally appeared on NBC Sports Philadelphia
With the dust largely – perhaps entirely – settling for the Phillies this offseason and the new year here, the construction of their 2025 roster can be projected with more precision.
The Phillies should have one of the most balanced and dangerous lineups in baseball against right-handed pitchers, but could struggle against lefties without internal improvement.
Let’s get into all of this.
Composition against right-handers
Here’s a better estimate of the Phillies’ regular lineup against right-handed starting pitchers:
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DH Kyle Schwarber (left)
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SS Trea Turner (right)
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1B Bryce Harper (left)
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3B Alec Bohm (right)
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LF Max Kepler (L)
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RF Nick Castellanos (right)
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2B Bryson Stott (L)
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C JT Realmuto (R)
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CF Brandon Marsh (L)
Bench: Edmundo Sosa, Weston Wilson, Johan Rojas, Garrett Stubbs
The ability to alternate left-handed and right-handed bats throughout is appealing. Bohm could also lose a place to Kepler.
There would be no safe section of the lineup many nights for a right-handed opponent, with Castellanos-Stott-Realmuto representing perhaps the softer third.
The offensive production of Castellanos and Realmuto against identical pitchers will be crucial again in 2025. Last season, Castellanos hit .249 with a .711 OPS against righties and Realmuto hit .258 with a .738 OPS. They were much better against lefties – .269/.830 for Castellanos and .286/.782 for Realmuto.
Stott, who was dealing with elbow soreness, hit just .251 against right-handers in 2024, down from .280 the year before. Marsh still did some damage, but his batting average against RHP dropped from .292 to .262. They both need to be better, period, in 2025, but let’s not forget that in the very recent past, both were real weapons against opposing pitches.
Lineup against lefties
Here is the projection against a left-handed starter:
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DH Schwarber (L)
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SS Turner (right)
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1B Harper (L)
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3B Bohm (R)
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RF Castellanos (R)
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C Realmuto (R)
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2B Sosa (right) or Stott (left)
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LF Kepler (left) or Wilson (right)
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CF Rojas (D)
Bench: Stott, Marsh, Wilson, Stubbs
Things are trickier against a lefty, of course, but keep in mind that the 2024 Phillies ranked second in the majors against lefties in batting average (.270), second in on-base percentage (.342 ) and third in OPS (.783). . This was largely due to Harper and Schwarber negating any platoon advantage the teams thought they had.
The Phillies don’t seem excited about the idea of fielding a platoon at three different positions — second base, left field and center field — in 2025. But they’ll need Stott, Kepler and Marsh to at least handle lefties decently to avoid the temptation to choose Sosa over Stott, Wilson over Kepler and Rojas over Marsh.
Of course, not all lefties are equal. There’s a difference between facing someone with funk and deception like Sean Manaea or Chris Sale and a southpaw with a more common arm slot and repertoire. Last season, Rob Thomson started Stott in two of four matchups against LHP Mackenzie Gore and Marsh once, for example. Both started against Patrick Corbin. Both started against Rockies left-hander Austin Gomber, who the Phillies could face in the first week of the season.
A team could draw a tough left-handed starting pitcher 20 times all year. The most common problem will be that of a left-handed opener. Teams have already attacked the Phillies with left-handed openers more than usual to combat Schwarber-Harper’s top third and that won’t change with their only offensive addition being Kepler.
The Phils seem determined to give Kepler the opportunity to play every day if he hits lefties, but he’ll have to prove he can. Otherwise, Wilson – or the right-handed hitter in that role – would have more opportunities. Kepler is a career .221 hitter against lefties, although he has been better over the past three seasons at .254.
Their most important bat against LHP might end up being the player most mentioned in Phillies trade rumors this fall: Bohm. He’s a career .307 hitter with an .870 OPS against lefties and that’s exactly the kind of protection a team would want in the mopup zone after Harper, whose on-base percentage versus pitchers identical over the last two seasons is above .380. .
Exodus of lefties
Perhaps more importantly, two of the three best lefties in the NL East that the Phillies faced last season no longer pose a threat to the division. Jesus Luzardo is theirs and Max Fried is a Yankee. The Braves’ only left-handed starter is Sale. Will he make 29 more starts?
The Mets still have Manaea and David Peterson. However, the only lefty in their bullpen currently is Danny Young. It didn’t matter in the 2024 NLDS and there are still six weeks of the offseason remaining, but it could be a factor at some point.
The Phillies get off to a soft start to the regular season this year with series against the Nationals and Rockies, then could face Blake Snell and Sale in the next two against the Dodgers and Braves. All of this is still a long way off — six weeks until spring training, three months before the games that matter — but it’s fun to think about on a cold January afternoon.
