Phillies get potentially huge rotation addition in trade for Luzardo originally appeared on NBC Sports Philadelphia
The outfield, bullpen and back of the starting rotation were the three clearest areas the Phillies needed to address entering the offseason and after signing Jordan Romano and Max Kepler, they acquired left-handed starting pitcher Jesús Luzardo on Sunday morning from the Marlin.
The Phillies are sending the Marlins their No. 4 prospect, Dominican shortstop Starlyn Caba, and outfielder Emaarion Boyd, a former 11th-round pick who spent 2024 at High-A.
This has the potential to be the most impactful addition of the three for the Phillies. They needed a fifth starter, but Luzardo is much more than that, closer to a No. 2 when healthy, and he said last week that he was after missing all three last month and a half of the season due to a back injury.
Luzardo, 27, has two more years of club control and is eligible for free agency after the 2026 season. He immediately improves the Phillies’ rotation and takes it from one of the best in baseball to probably the best in baseball. He offers Phillies protection if Ranger Suarez leaves in free agency after 2025. Suarez hired Scott Boras last week and has surely seen the price tag in free agency, so it’s a real possibility. And Luzardo also keeps the Phillies in strong rotation should an attractive trade offer for Suarez materialize in the next couple of months.
Luzardo’s best year was 2023, his only full healthy season, when he went 10-10 with a 3.58 ERA, striking out 208 batters in 178⅔ innings. He underwent Tommy John surgery in 2016, missed just under half the season in 2022 with a forearm issue, two weeks in 2024 with elbow tightness and did not pitch after June 16 due to lumbar stress reaction.
However, Luzardo told reporters last week that he is healthy and throwing.
“I was able to follow my normal progression in the offseason: throwing, running, starting to get off the mound,” Luzardo said. MLB.com. “I feel really good (with my) elbow, my back, my whole body, and I’m really getting ready for spring training and hopefully this opening day will be 100% complete, which for l ‘Now everything feels really good, and we’re full -go.’
Luzardo looked like he would become a starter at the top of the rotation as recently as 2023. In 50 starts in 2022-23, he pitched to a 3.48 ERA and 1.15 WHIP with 328 strikeouts. batting in 279 innings.
The Phillies team knows this only too well. They knocked him out after four innings in the 2023 wild-card round, but otherwise had issues with Luzardo’s 95-97 mph fastball, as well as the mid-80s changeup and slider. Here’s what he did the last five times he faced them in the regular season:
• 5⅓ IP, 1R, 11K
• 7 IP, 2 R, 9 K
• 6 IP, 3 R, 5 K
• 6⅓ IP, 2R, 9K
• 5⅔ IP, 2R, 8K
A 2.97 ERA with 42 strikeouts in 30⅓ innings.
Aside from 2023, Luzardo has finished 100⅓ innings in the majors. He certainly doesn’t have the durability track record of a Zack Wheeler or an Aaron Nola, but maybe that’s the point. There isn’t as much wear and tear on Luzardo’s left arm despite starting in the majors since 2020.
Luzardo projects to make $6 million through arbitration this offseason, according to MLB Trade Rumors. This figure would likely reach $11 million within a year. Considering the prices of starting pitching in free agency, this is huge value and great value for the Phillies if he can stay healthy. Two years of Luzardo could end up costing the Phillies $17 million, while two years of lesser pitchers with less upside like Frankie Montas and Matthew Boyd cost the Mets and Cubs $34 million and $29 million, respectively. dollars.
Every dollar counts for the Phillies this offseason, as shown here. With their luxury tax situation, they are essentially paying double for every player they add until more money is taken off the books next winter or unless they can unload some of their bulk salary before this date.
Of course, the Phillies also paid a prospect’s price by sending 19-year-old Caba to Miami. He just got his first taste of Single A in 2024 and is unlikely to help the Phillies for a few years. This is truly a win-now team, and Luzardo is a win-now player who didn’t cost them their heralded trio of Andrew Painter, Aidan Miller and Justin Crawford.
The Phils also get a minor league catcher in the deal: 27-year-old Paul McIntosh, who earned 480 plate appearances in Double-A last season in the Marlins’ system.
The addition of Luzardo will bring the Phillies’ payroll to approximately $305 million from a luxury tax perspective. We have passed the fourth and highest threshold which results in the most severe sanctions. The Phils were already paying an additional 92.5 cents on every dollar spent above the $281 million third cap, which is why Kepler’s one-year, $10 million contract will actually cost closer to $19 .25 million dollars.
The luxury tax penalty above the $301 million threshold is 110 cents on each dollar over, so even a $5 million player would currently cost the Phillies about $10.5 million.
However, most of their off-season work is done. They added potential and depth with Luzardo, they replaced one of the two late relievers they lost in free agency with Romano and signed another outfielder who they hope can take over. a day job in left field at Kepler. There is calculated risk and reward for all three. With an inflexible payroll and roster, the Phillies knew they would have to get creative.
