Patriots vs Jaguars preview: Maye can benefit from this matchup originally appeared on NBC Sports Boston
The Patriots know they are advancing on fragile ground.
They are 1-5. They have lost five times in a row. They are among the last in the league when it comes to meaningful offense. And Defensive statistical categories including points scored (13.8, 31st), EPA per play (-0.18, 30th), yards per pass (4.1, 31st), yards allowed (358.8 , 25th), third down pass rate allowed (44.7 percent, 26th) and declining pass rate allowed (49.6, 26th).
It’s ugly.
And on top of that, they’re now being asked whether or not they allowed complacency to creep into the locker room during what was widely considered a rebuilding year.
The players and coaches, led by head coach Jerod Mayo, recognized that they were engaged in a long-term process to get the team back into contention. While understanding the reality of the situation is in some ways healthy for everyone involved, how can players combat a lethargic approach of waiting until next year (or the year after) during what Mayo has described as a “reset” in London on Friday. ?
“Personally, I try to take that leadership role and tell guys to put pressure on themselves,” Kendrick Bourne said this week. “When you were running courses, what was it like? How did you feel? Did you do your best? Did you do your best? I think that’s the mindset that we must have.
“Coach can tell you anything you want. But if you don’t tell yourself, we’ll never get anywhere. We’re going to stay in the same boat at 1-5 every year. Personally, I watch I hate when I get locked in. I hate it when I drop a ball…The coaches do a great job, but it’s personal I think we just have to do a better job of doing this as a whole.”
What Mayo and other Patriots decision-makers will ultimately want to implement is a culture obsessed with winning. Emerging victorious on a consistent basis is not an expectation this year, nor should it be given the state of the roster and the foundation-laying stage the organization is in.
But there is a fine line between managed expectations and apathy. If losing becomes acceptable, it can be a difficult norm to shake.
Jonathan Jones explained this week that personal pride should deter that kind of player prospect in Foxboro.
“I think everyone is a professional,” Jones said. “This is our job and our livelihood. You are (judged) on what you do week in and week out as an individual. At the very least, you take pride in yourself as a professional and you go out there and you give it your all.”
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It is not always easy, Bourne acknowledges, to maintain this psychological advantage when results are lacking. Especially over a long period of time.
“It’s hard,” he said. “It’s adversity. It’s like, ‘OK, this again?’ When we are in the match and we lose 14 points, we say to ourselves: “OK, here we go again. But it’s that decision. Personally, I’m not going to look at the scoreboard. to play Then we find ourselves at halftime only seven points behind with the ball.
“It’s changing quickly. If we continue to fall into ‘Here we go again,’ it will be ‘Here we go again.’ We have to make a personal decision. We’re just going to play and see where we are at the end. If we are left feeling sorry for ourselves, playing the victim, it will be the same result, a change in mentality.”
Playing the one-win Jaguars presents a great opportunity for a mindset change.
“We need it,” Jones said. “I think both teams need it. It’s just one of those games to get some momentum, just prove to ourselves that we can win, go out there and put together consistent plays, consistent drives, consistent quarters and come out with a victory.”
Here are the matchups that will determine whether or not the Patriots find what they’re looking for at Wembley Stadium on Sunday…
Match that will determine the result
Drake Maye vs. Ryan Nielsen
Nielsen was the Falcons’ defensive coordinator last year, leading a group that finished fifth in the NFL in completion rate allowed and 12th in EPA per play allowed. Not bad for a team that had Calais Campbell, 37, as its best passer.
This year, in the same role for the Jaguars, Nielsen has had a much tougher life. His defense is last in the NFL in EPA per play and EPA dropback. He is also 29th in yards per pass attempt allowed, 27th in completion rate and 25th in third-down defense. Only two teams pressure opposing quarterbacks less frequently than Jacksonville (26.9% pressure rate).
This should mean a nice little day for Drake Maye, who averaged 7.4 yards per pass against Houston’s top-ranked defense in Week 6. One matchup he might particularly like would be DeMario Douglas taking on the Jaguars defensive back who happens to be in his area. According to NextGen Stats, Douglas has the sixth-most slot yards in the NFL this year, and the Jags are allowing a passer rating of 128.3 when slot receivers are targeted against them.
“Pop, you can’t keep him in a phone booth.” Maye said this week. “He’s tough to guard in man coverage, and he has a knack for finding zones. So he’s a great guy to have and he makes my job a little easier. Every time you see a men’s game, Pop is someone you want to go to.”
A match that might surprise you
Christian Gonzalez vs. Brian Thomas Jr.
While Christian Gonzalez is in the midst of an impressive sophomore season, he was challenged by Stefon Diggs in Week 6, allowing four catches on five targets for 39 yards and a touchdown. His game this week isn’t as accomplished as Diggs’, but he’s talented in his own right.
Don’t be surprised if first-round rookie Brian Thomas Jr. finds some production against Gonzalez in London. He leads rookie receivers in receiving yards (424) and deep receiving yards on targets that travel at least 20 yards beyond the line of scrimmage (225), according to NGS.
While Thomas isn’t the savvy Diggs route runner, and while he’s had some serious dropping issues this season (eight on the year), he’s a real problem in size, weight and speed, measuring 6 feet 3 inches and 209 pounds. and with a time of 4.33 seconds at this year’s combine.
The Jags are 23rd in points scored this season (18.8), but they’ve shown their ability to move the football — thanks in large part to the bond Thomas and Trevor Lawrence established in their first year together. They are seventh in the league in passing success rate this season.
A match that will take years off your life
Jaguars outscore defenders against Patriots offensive tackles
This will be a near-weekly staple for the Patriots. The scariest confrontation will be the one that poses the greatest threat to Maye’s well-being. This week, as was the case last week, it’s the edges of the pocket that could pose a problem for New England’s offense.
New England remains the worst team in football in pressure rating allowed (48.1%), and they will see some changes at the tackle position. With Vederian Lowe (ankle) ruled outit could be Demontrey Jacobs filling that spot after playing right tackle in recent weeks. Mike Onwenu would then likely kick outside to right tackle, with rookie Layden Robinson coming off the bench and starting at right guard.
Not ideal against Jags passers Josh Hines-Allen and Travon Walker. According to NGS, Hines-Allen (23 pressures) and Walker (22) are one of six passing duos in the NFL with at least 20 pressures each. Although as a team the Jags don’t routinely bother quarterbacks, they do have two potential destroyers on the outside.
It will be up to offensive coordinator Alex Van Pelt to help Onwenu and Jacobs in obvious passing situations with quick passes, double teams or throws at the line of scrimmage. Maye ranked 20th in the league in Week 6 with 12 pass attempts within 2.5 seconds of snapping the ball.
It would also help the Patriots, and Maye in particular after absorbing eight hits in Week 7, if they could generate some production in the running game. That disappeared to some extent when the Patriots found themselves in a quick 14-0 hole against the Texans. There should be more room to run on Sunday since the Jags are 23rd in the NFL in EPA rushing per play allowed this season.
