Patriots-Colts preview: Pats enter crucial ‘evaluation period’ originally appeared on NBC Sports Boston
FOXBORO — There should be two main goals for the Patriots for the remainder of the 2024 season.
No. 1? Establish something in terms of culture, standard and identity in Jerod Mayo’s first year as head coach. It appears that there is still a lot of work to be done in this area, after a Week 12 drubbing at Miami characterized by a lack of focus and communication.
No. 2? Find out what the young players on the roster can do. In the midst of a rebuild, there is nothing more valuable than talented, cost-controlled players on rookie contracts who have proven to be franchise cornerstones. Those who can’t reach that mark at least give the team a clearer picture of its needs for next offseason.
Mayo explained this week that with time remaining, he and his team will provide their young players with opportunities to stake their claim for long-term roles through 2025 and beyond.
“Look, I would say, not to be too specific, but I will,” Mayo said. “You need a guy like Layden Robinson to show what he can do. We need a guy like Cole Strange before the end of the season to see what he can do. You can use Caedan ( Wallace) in the same bucket We need to see what the receivers can do and what they will look like in the future.
“That’s the hardest part for me. Look, you want to win now, but at the same time I think it would be a disservice to go to the end of the season and not know exactly what that we have.”
This is not an essay in itself. But this is a period of evaluation. And someone like Robinson, who could fill a void after the team released Michael Jordan earlier this week, could have a significant impact on how the Patriots allocate their team-building resources in March . (Jordan was re-signed to the practice squad and elevated to wear the uniform for Sunday’s game.)
If, for example, Robinson or Strange show they can be reliable starting options before the end of the year? It’s one more position managed, one less item to urgently address in free agency or the draft.
While the Patriots can make giant strides from a culture-building standpoint against the Colts by playing the smart, tough, reliable style of football they hope to embody consistently, it may be easier to gauge exactly what they get from young people. players who have not yet solidified what they will be.
In addition to judging these contributions, here are the other elements of this Week 13 game at Gillette Stadium that you should keep an eye on…
Match that will determine the result
Drake Maye vs. Colts DC Gus Bradley
The time when the Patriots toppled a predictable Gus Bradley defense… as they did when Bradley led the Chargers defense in the 2018 divisional round – have long since passed.
On top of what Maye has played since taking over as the starter in Week 6, he’s turned the ball over 11 times in that span and he’s facing the eighth-best team in the NFL to create takeaway meals (17). And what makes this a particularly intriguing matchup is that while Bradley’s three-deep defense is still relatively predictable, these types of coverages have given Maye some problems in his short time as a starter.
The Patriots rookie has thrown four of his seven picks against Cover 3 this year. according to NextGen statistics. And Bradley calls cover 3 (45.3 percent of opposing dropbacks) more than any other defensive coordinator in the NFL.
Previous iterations of the Patriots shredded the cover 3 with seam passes, their “Peel” concept and short catch-and-run throws to ball carriers. Maye and offensive coordinator Alex Van Pelt could opt for a plan that incorporates some of those same ideas, as Indianapolis has allowed the most completions (51) and third-most yards (333) against screens this year.
The Colts have also allowed the ninth-highest EPA per play route running this season, which could bode well for tight ends Hunter Henry and Austin Hooper.
A match that will surprise you
Patriots overtake Colts offensive line
Wondering why the Patriots try to blitz as often as they do, calling for extra rushers even though they understand it will leave them shorthanded in a secondary that often needs help?
These blitz calls, as risky as they are, are sometimes the only way for them to put pressure on opposing quarterbacks. According to NGS, they put pressure on passers in 43% of cases during blitzes. When is this not the case? This figure drops to just 23.2 percent. No team in the NFL has a big differential between blitz and non-blitz when it comes to pressure rate.
The Patriots have the fifth-highest blitz rate in the league, and there’s a good chance they continue to bring in additional rushers this week against Anthony Richardson, who has the fourth-worst quarterback rating in the NFL under pressure this year (55.4). Indy let 53 percent of its blitzes result in pressures, and the outlook for its pass protection unit is looking tougher by the day.
The Colts are already without starting center Ryan Kelly and right guard Will Fries. Right tackle Braden Smith (personal/non-injury) was ruled out, as was backup center Tanor Bertolini. Left tackle Bernhard Raimann (knee) could be limited, and former Patriots interior lineman Atonio Mafi was signed to the Colts practice squad to potentially be pushed into action.
This would be a great time for Keion White, Christian Barmore, Deatrich Wise and Anfernee Jennings – with the help of some blitzers – to live in an opposing backfield. The Patriots racked up nine sacks against a broken Bears line three weeks ago. But in five games around that one – three before, two after – they only have four sacks total.
Matchup that goes take years off your life
Pass protection Colts DT DeForest Buckner vs. Patriots
One of the advantages of playing as much zone as the Colts? They don’t allow a lot of quarterback scrambles, as their second and third level defenders tend to have their eyes on the backfield. They are 24th in quarterback scrimmage attempts (20) and yards allowed (129) this season. That’s not good news for the Patriots, whose 22-year-old quarterback is averaging 9.6 yards per scrimmage attempt, which ranks fourth in the NFL among qualifiers.
The problem for the Patriots, however, goes beyond Indy’s apparent ability to keep Maye in the pocket. When he gets in there, he’ll have to avoid one of the most dangerous interior runners in the NFL.
DeForest Buckner is second among qualified defensive tackles in pressure rate and quick pressure rate (within 2.5 seconds of the snap). Only Milton Williams of the Eagles has a better sack rate and win rate on “real” pass sets (excluding screens, play actions or rollouts) among interior passers this season.
The Colts like to send extra rushers on third down, but if handling those blitzers means Buckner has to be blocked one-on-one — especially for an offensive line that could undergo another shuffle this week — that’s a game that could ruin the game for the Patriots.
