The PGA TOUR travels to Los Cabos, Mexico to play the 2023 World Tech Championship at El Cardonal in Diamante.
Formerly named The Mayakoba Golf Classic and OHL at Mayakoba, the event was held at El Camaleón Golf Club for sixteen years before moving to El Cardonal. El Camaleón is now used for the LIV Golf Mayakoba event.
El Cardonal at Diamante is a 7,452 yard par 72 Tiger Woods course with paspalum greens. “Influenced by the old-school courses of Southern California where he grew up, Tiger created a course that brings back the need for strategy, giving players multiple shot options to navigate during each hole.”
This event brings together 132 players competing for 500 FedExCup points and will finalize the top 125 for next season. Fields remain relatively weak as we approach the end of the fall period. Some of the notable golfers among the 132 in the field include: Ludvig Aberg, Cameron Young, Lucas Glover, Emiliano Grillo, Beau Hossler and Cameron Champ.
Past winners of the World Technology Championship (at El Camaleón Golf Club)
- 2022: Russell Henley (-23)
- 2021: Viktor Hovland (-23)
- 2020: Viktor Hovland (-20)
- 2019: Brendon Todd (-20)
- 2018: Matt Kuchar (-22)
- 2017: Patton Kizzire (-19)
- 2016: Pat Pérez (-21)
- 2015: Kevin Kisner (-18)
- 2014: Charlie Hoffman (-17)
- 2013: Harris English (-21)
Let’s take a look at several metrics from El Cardonal to Diamante to determine which golfers are posting the best marks in each category over their last 24 rounds.
Strokes gained: approach
Speaking about the course, Tiger Woods said: “The approach angles will be very important and will dictate the type of shots you should be looking at.” With the influence of Tiger Woods, there is a good chance that El Cardonal will take on the role of second-tier golf course.
Total strokes gained: approach over the last 24 rounds:
- Lucas Glover (+29.5)
- Sam Ryder (+24.9)
- Russell Knox (+22.4)
- At Réavie (+18.3)
- Ryan Moore (+17.9)
Driving distance
El Cardonal features forgiving fairways and is a relatively long course, so distance should be prioritized over accuracy this week.
Total driving distance over the last 24 laps:
- Cameron Champ (+22.5)
- Peter Kuest (+17.1)
- MJ Daffué (+16.5)
- Chris Gotterup (+16.0)
- Kyle Westmoreland (+15.1)
Total strokes gained: Paspalum
Paspalum greens are a different surface than most TOUR players are accustomed to. They can be bumpy and slow, and some golfers tend to really thrive on them year after year.
Comparable greens can be found at TPC Kuala Lumpur (CIMB Classic), Coco Beach Golf and Country Club (Puerto Rico Open) and Corales Golf Club (Corales Puntacana Resort & Club Championship).
Total strokes gained: Paspalum in the last 24 rounds:
- Brandon Wu (+51.3)
- Adam Long (+42.4)
- Nate Lashley (+40.0)
- Akshay Bhatia (+34.0)
- Harry Room (+26.8)
Opportunities won
On a resort tour of Mexico, we will likely see some interesting conditions this week. Therefore, it will be important to target golfers who consistently see birdie opportunities within 15 feet. Historically, bad putters have done quite well on the paspalum, so it wouldn’t be surprising to see a player who is generally strong on the green get hot with the flat club.
Total strokes gained in the category over the last 24 rounds:
- Russell Knox (+23.8)
- Callum Tarren (+21.3)
- Doug Ghim (+19.0)
- Ludvig Aberg (+18.5)
- Chris Kirk (+18.0)
Strokes gained: total under easy scoring conditions
Ultimately, this is a resort course in Mexico during swing season. There is a good chance that this event will turn into a “bird party”.
Total strokes gained: Total under easy scoring conditions:
- Doug Ghim (+39.4)
- Stéphane Jaeger (+29.2)
- Tyler Duncan (+24.1)
- Akshay Bhatia (+23.7)
- Ludvig Aberg (+22.3)
Statistical model
Below, I’ve presented the overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories discussed previously.
These rankings include SG: App (28%) Driving Distance (18%); SG: Paspalum (18%); Opportunities won (18%); and strokes gained: total under easy scoring conditions (15%)
- Callum Tarren (+6500)
- Stéphane Jaeger (+2500)
- Doug Ghim (+5500)
- Akshay Bhatia (+4000)
- Lucas Glover (+2500)
- Cameron Champ (+5000)
- Brandon Wu (+8000)
- Kevin Roy (+25000)
- Luc List (+4000)
- Kevin Yu (+11000)
2023 Global Tech Championship Picks
Emiliano Grillo +2800 (FanDuel)
Emiliano Grillo played much of his best golf on shorter, resort-style courses in this part of the world and/or at Paspalum Greens. He finished second (2015) and third (2020) at the Puerto Rico Open, a sixth at Corales (2021) and three top 10s at El Camaleón (2016, 2017 and 2020). He also finished 5th at the Mexican Open last year in Vidanta. The Argentinian ranks 7th in the peloton in Strokes Gained: Total on Paspalum.
Grillo got off to a slow start this fall, missing his first two cuts, but bounced back nicely with a 10th place finish at the ZOZO Championship in his most recent start. Although there was no shot tracking at the event, Grillo won on the field in what was measured, including driving distance, good drives gained and greens in regulation.
After the top of the table there is a big drop off in terms of talent and winning equity and I think Grillo represents the best option among golfers at the next level.
Akshay Bhatia +4000 (BetMGM)
Akshay Bhatia showed early and often throughout his career that he favored Paspalum’s coastal golf courses. On the field, he ranks 3rd in Strokes Gained: Total on Paspalum and 4th in Strokes Gained: Total on easy courses. The complex style setup will be a perfect recipe for the rising star to succeed at El Cardonal this week.
Bhatia has already won on the Korn Ferry Tour in Sandals Emerald Bay, a coastal paspalum track that has some similarities to what we’ll see this week in Mexico. In 2021, the 21-year-old finished second at the Puerto Rico Open and placed 26th at the Corales Puntacana Championsip. Last year, Bhatia finished 2nd at the Puerto Rico Open and 4th at the Mexico Open in Vidanta.
The smooth-moving southpaw has already broken through for his first PGA Tour victory at the Barracuda Championship, beating Patrick Rodgers in a playoff. However, it was an alternative event opposed to the Open Championship. Akshay is still motivated and has a lot to prove as we head into the 2024 season.
Cameron Champ +6600 (BetRivers)
Cameron Champ had a steep fall, finishing 9th at Sanderon Farms and 18th at Shriners in back-to-back starts before a poor result at the ZOZO Championship in Japan. Despite this setback, the 25-year-old is still expected to be in excellent shape as he travels to Mexico this week.
Champ is another player who has had good results with Paspalum throughout his career. On the field, he ranks 10th in Strokes Gained: Total on Paspalum and finished 6th at the Mexican Open in 2022, and 8th in 2023 to go along with a 10th place finish in 2018 at the OHL in Mayakoba. There seems to be a clear theme with Champ bringing his A-game when playing in Mexico.
El Cardonal appears to be a course that will favor bombers, and Champ is the Tour’s biggest bomber, leading the peloton in riding distance over its final 24 laps.
He’s inconsistent, but Champ has proven that if he mixes up, he can win an event.
Joel Dahmen +6500 (FanDuel)
Joel Dahmen had a rough season in 2022-23, but recently showed signs of getting his game back on track in the fall season. He struggled at the ZOZO Championship, but I’m happy to discount a start in Japan after showing solid iron play in his previous start. He gained 4.6 on approach at the Shriners to go along with 5.4 shots off the tee. Dahmen’s 10.2 strokes gained from tee to green were his best performance in this category since March 2020.
Dahmen also performs well in paspalum. He won the Corales Puntacana Championship in 2021, finished 3rd at Mayakoba in 2022 and 6th there in 2019. He has played very well on easier setups and should thrive this week in what could prove to be a ” birdie festival.”
Brandon Wu +8000 (FanDuel)
Keeping with the Paspalum theme, Brandon Wu is a player who appears to be a completely different player on the surface. He ranks first in the field in Strokes Gained: Total on Paspalum, and four of his best six PGA Tour finishes come at Paspalum, which is incredible considering the lack of events played on it.
Over his last 24 rounds, the Stanford product ranks 19th in Strokes Gained: Approach and 8th in Opportunities Gained, indicating he’s ready for a breakout if he can get his putter going. Considering he gains 0.6 field strokes per event at Paspalum instead of losing field strokes on all other surfaces, El Cardonal seems a likely place for him to figure it out.
Wu twice finished 7th or better at the Puerto Rico Open and the Mexico Open. I believe in the long-term ceiling for Wu, and I think this week might be the most realistic place for the 26-year-old to earn his first PGA TOUR victory.
Adam Long +15000 (FanDuel)
Adam Long is the last player on the card and continues the theme of players extremely comfortable on the Paspalum greens. Long placed 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Total on Paspalum and had 2nd and 3rd finishes in Mexico at Mayakoba as well as a 5th at the Corales Puntacana Championship.
Long hasn’t been at his best in recent seasons, but he started his fall on a high note, finishing 35th at the Sanderson Farms Championship and Shriners. In both starts, he gained strokes approaching and leaving the green. Perhaps a return to his favorite surface will inspire Long to return to even better form this week in Mexico.
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