We’ve reached the home stretch of the 2023-24 NBA season, and likely Western Conference play-in teams must be feeling the heat of a Houston Rockets winning streak that reached nine games Monday night.
They suddenly find themselves a half-game behind the Golden State Warriors for 10th place and the West’s final spot in the play-in, but they’re not the only reason to panic for the rest of the likely entrants.
Teams that finish ninth or tenth must win two games to advance to the playoffs. This may be a cause for concern. Anyone who might have to face LeBron James or Stephen Curry in a unique situation would surely feel some nerves.
Whatever the reason, it’s time to turn on the panic meter for all eight teams potentially in the game.
But first, a word about what “probable” means here.
Basketball references Playoff Odds Report is “based on 10,000 simulations of the remainder of the season” and gives four teams in each conference a greater than 60% chance of finishing between seventh and tenth place.*
By this criterion, the only real close are the Dallas Mavericks (56.0%) and the Indiana Pacers (53.5). The Rockets aren’t making the cut either, but their surge should be a source of panic for some, so you’ll see them mentioned on other teams’ slides.
*Simulations are underway before the matches played on Monday March 25.
Panic counter: Weak
Even with Monday’s miraculous victory over the Boston Celtics, the Atlanta Hawks are just about locked in 10th place.
They’re five and a half ahead of the 11th-place Brooklyn Nets, who have been an absolute mess for months. They won’t miss the play-in.
The only real drama at this point involves the Chicago Bulls, who suddenly find themselves on a three-game losing streak. If they continue to struggle, Atlanta could sneak up to ninth place, but that would be gravy.
If they finish 10th and win two road games, that’s gravy.
If Trae Young is back and playing well in time for these two (potential) matches, more sauce.
It’s a product of mediocrity throughout the season and the fact that they like being in the Eastern Conference, but as far as likely play-off teams go, Atlanta’s current position is about as good as it gets without stress as possible.
Panic counter: AVERAGE
As mentioned in the Hawks slide, Chicago has lost its last three games. If the dream of escaping the bottom half of the play-in wasn’t already dead, it probably is now. There are five and a half games between the Bulls and eighth place.
The absence of this chase perhaps relieves some of the pressure, but the needle is still moving on the panic meter as Chicago has put itself in danger of being overtaken by the Hawks.
And while there’s no significant difference between the Bulls’ home (.486) and road (.457) winning percentages, almost everyone would prefer to play a playoff game in their home arena.
DeMar DeRozan could get hot enough to beat the Hawks and anyone else left between the Miami Heat and Philadelphia 76ers. Coby White and Ayo Dosunmu have made this backcourt a lot more interesting in recent weeks.
But Chicago surely doesn’t want to make the path to a playoff spot any more complicated than it already is.
Panic counter: High
Sunday, when asked about Houston’s winning streak, Draymond Green told reporters: “I don’t care about the Rockets.”
Well certainly. Draymond, in particular, is perhaps less likely than any other Warrior to say he’s afraid of losing his playoff spot. But organizationally, the panic meter needle needs to bounce off the edge.
Golden State is 3-6 in their last nine games. Their next four games will be away (although two will be against the Charlotte Hornets and San Antonio Spurs). And the only game left against the Rockets will take place in Houston (April 4).
The Warriors still have one of the most dangerous players in the NBA in Stephen Curry. Some nights, when Jonathan Kuminga, Klay Thompson or another teammate is rolling, it becomes tempting to believe in this team’s strengths again.
But stretches like the one they’re in now have, frankly, been far too common to go with anything other than “high” for this slide.
Panic counter: High
With the Warriors’ slide and the fact that they’re 5-2 in their last seven games, we could probably justify an “average” here, but it’s the Los Angeles Lakers. Expectations are always high, but that was especially true for this year’s team. He just made the conference finals in 2023.
Eight months later, despite a good continuity and healthier-than-normal seasons from LeBron and Anthony Davis, the Lakers are at very real risk of missing the playoffs entirely.
THE odds among those who move up to the eighth seed are slim, which means having to win consecutive road games to secure the eighth seed. And in the West, those games could be against Curry or the flamboyant Rockets, followed by Luka Dončić and Kyrie Irving, Kevin Durant and Devin Booker or Domantas Sabonis and De’Aaron Fox.
Having two stars like Davis and LeBron is a good confidence booster, but the West is a challenge. This is why Los Angeles is in the situation it is in right now. And it could send the biggest name in the game home before the playoffs.
Panic counter: Weak
Projection system still gives the Miami Heat as good a chance in the top six as seventh or eighth. That alone puts them pretty low on the panic meter.
But even if the Heat find themselves in the play-in, a few factors make it easy to breathe.
First, they are in the Eastern Conference. If the first play-in game includes Joel Embiid, recently returned from injury, the level of concern will certainly increase. But even if they lose this opener, they’ll get another home game against the sub-.500 Bulls or Hawks to compete.
For a team that reached the conference finals during play-ins last season, this seems like a decent chance to secure at least a playoff spot.
More important than that, however, is the fact that Jimmy Butler is still on this list. And Jimmy Butler of the Playoffs is a very real thing.
In a win or kill situation, he made it quite difficult to face. During his four playoff series with the Heat, he averaged 24.7 points, 6.8 rebounds, 5.7 assists and 1.9 steals, but that doesn’t begin to do his impact justice.
Butler can stamp his will on a series in a way few others ever have, so he can certainly throw a play-in game (or two).
Panic counter: Weak
There’s a temptation to raise this one to “average” simply because we have yet to get an actual timetable from the Philadelphia 76ers for when Embiid will return.
If he’s not back or if it’s a diminished version of himself, there’s a good chance the Sixers miss the playoffs. But there are plenty buzz that he will return in time for the play-in.
East Philadelphia plus-10.3 points per 100 possessions when Embiid and Tyrese Maxey are both on the court, and if the former is back, Philadelphia should be able to win a game on two chances against a field that includes the Bulls and Hawks.
And as if that wasn’t reason enough for the panic meter to barely register, the 76ers are still in the mix. hunting for a place among the top six.
Panic counter: AVERAGE
The Phoenix Suns are in good enough shape to maintain their spot in the top half of the play-in. There’s still a long way to go chance they make the top six and avoid the play-in altogether.
Assuming they finish seventh or eighth, there should be more than enough high-end talent to secure a playoff spot. Phoenix is plus-7.7 points per 100 possessions when Kevin Durant, Devin Booker and Bradley Beal are all on the floor.
However, even the two-to-win-one scenario has the potential to end in heartbreak, and that comes with a little extra pressure for the Suns.
They were just in the Finals in 2021, and the only player left on that list is Booker. The number of players and assets they’ve been going ever since to get this team, it’s astounding.
Phoenix went more than all-in to get Durant and Beal. And given their age and health, the window opened by their acquisitions probably won’t stay open for long. Missing the playoffs in year one with these big three would be a disaster.
Panic counter: AVERAGE
Of all the teams detailed here, the Sacramento Kings have the best chance of finishing in the top six at 36.9 percent. This might suggest that the panic meter should just buzz.
But if the Warriors can hold off the Rockets, the Kings will be in a Western Conference play-in field that could include Stephen Curry and several 2022 champions; LeBron and AD, who won the title together in 2020; and the Suns trio of Durant, Booker and Beal.
These three teams have more playoff experience than Sacramento. Even if Dallas ends up sliding into Phoenix’s spot, it would be difficult to choose Domantas Sabonis and De’Aaron Fox over Luka and Kyrie.
Fair or not, the Kings might still be haunted by the stigma the organization developed over the many years of losing that preceded this era.
Again, though, they could still finish top six, and there’s little to no chance they’ll fall to ninth or tenth. Sacramento will almost certainly have two chances to win a game and make the playoffs.
