We are at the heart of the NFL off -season, finding the Chicago Bears Smack Dab in the middle of the lull between the OTAs and the training camp, what better time to trigger discussions on the subjects that we rarely tackle during the regular season?
This brings us to a fun question to explore:
What is the most surface statistic in the NFL?
For a long time, I have had a personal reproach with a particular statistic: the NFL passer rating. Actually, (Warning of shameless caps)) I spent four months during the off-season trying to develop a better way to quantify the impact of a quarter, which I call the real note of the passer. (Do not hesitate to ask me questions at any time.) Now, let’s go back to our piece of plush out of regular season!
Why notation of the NFL passer?
Well, let’s start with a question: what does the NFL passer do?
To try to remain simple, the notation of the NFL passer is a traditional formula used to measure the passage efficiency of a quarter. It combines four key passage statistics: the percentage of completion, the yards by attempt, the percentage of touch and the percentage of interception in a single number on a scale of 0 to 158.3, where higher is better.
His birth began in 1971 when the commissioner of the NFL Pete Rozelle (yes, this Pete Rozelle) …
… asked the NFL Statistical Committee to create a new way of crowning a passenger leader. It was officially adopted as a standard of the League in the QB efficiency classification in 1973. Officially at the League a way to crown its best / most effective quarter.
But why don’t I like it?
1) He has not aged well.
In other words, the notation of NFL passers-by offers an obsolete objective to assess the success of the quarterrier. According to Professional football referenceThe average rating of the league passers -by increased from 64.9 in 1973 (when Roger Staubach led the NFL with a note from 94.6) to 92.3 in 2024, Lamar Jackson at the top of the list at a stellar 119.6. To put this in perspective, the note from the Staubach League in 1973 would only have been ranked 15th in 2024, just behind Russell Wilson. As the skills of the quarter-arre have evolved and the league rules have more and more favored the game of passes, it has become more and more difficult to make fair comparisons between eras using this metric alone.
2) It does not take into account the key components of the constitution of a passer.
Here is a simple thought experience:
Quarterrière A Launches a pass: a touch of 70 yards. However, 65 of these yards come after taking, the wide receiver transforming an inclination of 5 yards into a long score.
Quarter Also throw a touch of 70 yards, but in this case, only 20 meters come after the catch. The QB perfectly struck its receiver in a Go road.
Are these two throws equal? According to the notation of the NFL passer, they translate into the same score of 158.3 “perfect”. But does not take into account the relative difficulty of each throw, namely the depth of the target on the launch (commonly known as the average depth of the target, or adotation in the NFL of today.) So, while the box score will indicate that the two QBs were incredible on this game, there is more than what does not respond to the eye.
He also ignores two major Components of the quarter-back Play: Ball Security (specifically escaped) and bags. Modern NFL analyzes show that taking only two bags can be as damaging, or even more, at the expected points of an added team (EPA) than to launch an interception. And omitting the escaped escaped by the quarter-rear resembles the picking of the cherries, easily overlooking a critical weakness for the QB which fight with the safety of the balls.
3) There are arbitrary limiting factors.
Namely, the minimum score of 0.0 and the maximum score of 158.3 (these being limited by additional limiting factors in the way each component of the rating is calculated.) Secret Base has made a fantastic video series covering this more in depth, and I suggest you check if you want to do a deeper dive: Correct the lie of the NFL passers -by.
4) He doesn’t even really do his job.
Bear with me. This is the first example that comes to my mind when you think about the faults of the NFL Passher rating.
Bears vs. 49ersWeek 14 of the 2024 season. The Bears entered the clearly outnounced game, just ten days deleted from a Thanksgiving Day. Detroit lions. The 49ers took an early advance, marking 24 points in the first half on the way to an eruption of 38-13. Chicago did not reach the goal area before it left for about six minutes in the third quarter.
Now, looking at the box score, Caleb Williams launched only 134 yards. But he also had 2 affected, no interceptions and only 6 incompletements. On paper, it resulted on a smuggler side of 116.9, the third highest of his career.
What this number does not reflect are the seven bags he has taken, the one he lost, and the difficulty he had pushed the ball down, with an average depth of only 6.8 yards. Just a miserable global game not only for Caleb Williams but also the offensive unit as a whole.
To offer a different perspective, the score of passers -by that I developed gave Caleb Williams a score of 41.9 for this match. In my opinion, it is a much more precise reflection of the malice it played.
For a brief comparison: during week 6, Williams completed almost 80% of his passes for 226 yards, 4 touched, 1 int and only 3 bags, and his note ended up being 124.4 in a dominant victory of 35-16 Bears, Only 7.5 more points! (A game that my system gives it a score of 153.3.)
And for these reasons, I think that the current note of NFL passers-by is overrated and not a significant or precise means of measuring the performances of a quarter.
But that raises the question: in your opinion, what statistics NFL is the most over -goed? Let us know in the comments!
Gary Baugher Jr. is a contributor recruited to WCG, providing football information supported by more than 16 years of experience in organized football and more than 30 years as a fan passionate about the game. You can follow him on Twitter in @iamcogs.
