OKC Thunder’s Nikola subject likely hampered by 2025-26 rookie competition

Serbian point guard Nikola Topic is preparing for his first season with the Oklahoma City Thunder after missing every game in the 2024-25 regular season and playoffs due to a partially torn ACL in his left knee. Thomas Sorber, who Oklahoma City selected 15th overall in June’s NBA draft, tore his right ACL during an offseason workout Thursday. The Georgetown center won’t play at all this year.

Most NBA rookies are not positive players, much less difference makers. The existing Thunder core makes fun of this fact.

Three Oklahoma City starters have made the All-Rookie team since the 2022 draft. Each of them helped catalyze a nearly 180-degree turnaround. The Thunder improved from the fourth-worst record in the NBA in the 2021-22 season to 84 total wins – tied for third-most in league history – last season.

Needless to say, Topic needs to make a seismic effort to achieve similar status.

Big man Chet Holmgren, who was the No. 2 pick in 2022, on average 16.5 points with 53.0% shooting, 7.9 rebounds (1.6 offensive), 2.4 assists and 2.3 blocks while playing in all 82 games during his 2023-24 rookie campaign. He totaled 3.4 boxes plus-minus (No. 35 in the NBAmin. 500 minutes), an estimated plus-minus of +2.9 (No. 36 in the NBA) and a LEBRON +2.50 (No. 28 in the NBA), supercharging the Thunder on both ends of the court.

Holmgren finished No. 2 on the Rookie of the Year list behind San Antonio Spurs center Victor Wembanyama, who had a hugely impactful season of his own. Forward Jalen Williams suffered a similar fate as a rookie, posting impressive efficiency and overall stats but falling short of Orlando Magic winner Paolo Banchero.

Williams, like Holmgren, was Oklahoma City’s most notable addition for a double-digit win jump. Both started most games as rookies, provided secondary scoring and played a role on defense – with Holmgren immediately being a top rim protector. Guard Cason Wallace was primarily a reserve throughout his freshman year, but he was elite in catch-and-shoot and perimeter defense. Those skills have been invaluable to the No. 1 seed in the Western Conference.

Reigning MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander made the All-Rookie Second Team with the 2018-19 LA Clippers. He started 73 matchesaveraged 10.8 points on 47.6% shooting and recorded a modest -0.5 box plus-minus.

Holmgren was the Thunder’s top prospect acquired during its rebuild and played like a top pick since day one. Williams shot out of a cannon during his junior campaign at Santa Clara University, climbed the pre-draft boards with a great draft combination, exceeded rookie expectations and became a two-way star. Gilgeous-Alexander rotated quality guards for the Clippers alongside Lou Williams and Patrick Beverley, producing when needed on a playoff team. He became Oklahoma City’s leading scorer the following year.

The takeaway: Oklahoma City’s three best players were studs before they gained much experience.

Topic doesn’t have much room to showcase his talent as he will play alongside a handful of impactful guards. Gilgeous-Alexander, Wallace and Isaiah Joe are rotation staples. Luguentz Dort, Alex Caruso and Aaron Wiggins can play as guards or forwards depending on the alignment, but they are also ahead of Topic on the depth chart. Even sophomore Ajay Mitchell will compete for regular season minutes.

The Thunder’s depth was one of its biggest strengths last season, and it should be better this year, even without Sorber. This is bad news for Topic, as all 10 2024-25 All-Rookie members have made at least 31 starts.

All-Rookie voting values ​​count stats and playing time against value, even if that logic is counterintuitive in the long run. Four of the five 2024-25 All-Rookie First Team recipients averaged double figures in points. The lone exception, Memphis Grizzlies center Zach Edey, averaged 8.3 rebounds (3.5 offensive), 1.3 blocks, 1.0 assists and compiled the best impact metrics of the lot.

Edey and teammate Jaylen Wells were the only award-winning rookies to play a team above .500. The Grizzlies won 48 games with a +4.7 net rating (No. 6 in the NBA) and lost to the Thunder in a first-round sweep.

Not surprisingly, the most productive rookies are selected high in the draft, play lots of minutes, and put up numbers on bad teams.

Jaylin Williams made nine starts last season despite becoming one of the best backups in the NBA. Caruso made three starts despite being the best perimeter defender in the NBA. This season, Topic won’t start games unless many rotation players sit out. A first world problem to say the least.