It’s a non-debatable topic of conversation. And, as a student, I look forward to “subtly” watching early games on my laptop during my afternoon classes on the best four days of the year.
Like most things, March Madness is best when you have some skin in the game. And for a few weeks, I wasn’t really sure I could support my school in the biggest sporting event on the planet.
Ohio State had a dreadful seven-game streak over a four-week span, a story that becomes terribly familiar. Morale was low during these dark times. The final four projects were developed and canceled in just 28 days.
The Buckeyes hit their low point after a heartbreaking home loss to Minnesota, which completed its two-game sweep of the home team. A saving grace named Northwestern gave Ohio State the confidence it needed. The double-digit win kicked off a streak of five wins in six games, putting the Buckeyes firmly back on track for a tournament berth.
That run, coupled with the team’s early season dominance, all but clinched a tournament berth for the Buckeyes. Ohio State’s record is still one of the best in the country and includes two wins against teams currently ranked in the top 15. Chris Holtmann’s team was even ranked No. 2 in the AP poll and No. 1 in the KenPom rankings.
From an analytical standpoint, the Buckeyes have five wins in quadrant one, which places them tied for 13th in the country. Ohio State’s eight losses all came against quad-one or quad-two opponents, which are less “costly” than quad-three or quad-four losses. NET scoreswhich places the Buckeyes at 18th, are based on the strength of their wins and losses in the quadrant.
Furthermore, the KenPom Ranking I still like the Buckeyes, ranking them 9th in the country. Ken Pomeroy’s rankings are supposed to be forward-looking, meaning his model thinks Ohio State will be the ninth-best team this season.
SupportMatrix, which compiles all of the major analysts’ tournament picks, currently has the Buckeyes as the No. 6 composite seed in the tournament. Some predictions have the Bucks as high as a four seed, while others have them as low as an eighth seed.
With the Big Ten still going strong, it’s understandable to be experiencing a tough time similar to what Ohio State is experiencing. Now, as long as the wheels don’t completely come off for the Buckeyes, everything should be fine in Columbus in March.
Looking ahead, the Buckeyes have No. 20 Iowa and No. 7 Maryland this week. Next, Ohio State will face Nebraska, Michigan, Illinois and Michigan State.
This is by no means an easy end to the season for the Buckeyes, but as long as they get even one win in the next six matchups, there’s no reason why Ohio State does not participate in the tournament. Only if they don’t win should they find themselves in the bubble for the second year in a row.
This is of course the worst case scenario. Instead, Ohio State should be favored in half of its final six games, and if the Buckeyes are able to handle their business, they should play as a top seed in the top half in March.
In reality, the state of Ohio could win four or five of their next six games. If that happens, the Buckeyes would finish their season winning nine or ten of their final 12 games. This result would put Ohio State in contention for a top-five seed, as the Buckeyes were in Chris Holtmann’s first season in Columbus.
Unlike the 2017-18 season, the Buckeyes will not have the Big Ten Player of the Year this season. Instead, Holtmann and his team had to navigate the most competitive conference in recent history with a team that will likely feature just one All-Big Ten player.
Even so, by almost all measures and predictions, the Buckeyes will be part of the madness next month. Ohio State has certainly had its share of ups and downs, but its early season success and rekindled offensive identity will likely put Ohio State in the tournament as a 7 seed.
