I hope we all managed to make it through the night after last night’s game quickly went from an explosion of joy to complete panic. I’m both stunned that we won the game and stunned that we didn’t knock them out given the way Purdue played for most of the game. The important thing is that it counts as a victory.
Still, I’m encouraged that Purdue finally looked like the team we expected, even if it was only for about 30 minutes. The opening 14-1 stretch was the best basketball Purdue has played in a long time, so if it’s a sign that we’re coming out of the slump as we reach the bulk of the schedule, that’s good.
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The most important thing from last night is that the win likely pushed Purdue closer to second place in March, when a loss could have closed the door on that. With seven games remaining, Purdue likely needs to be at least 6-1 to be in the discussion for a top seed. All seven could end up being Tier 1 as well. The lowest team remaining on the schedule is Northwestern with 77, and 75 is the cutoff for a Tier 1 road win. Indiana is also at 31 and the threshold for Tier 1 home wins is 30.
Still, Purdue earned its win of the season last night, and its toughest remaining games are at home. Thanks to Wisconsin upsetting Illinois in Champaign last night, the Big Ten title is still possible as long as Michigan loses at least one more game outside of the Purdue game.
It’s going to be a fight.
Purdue Boilermakers Profile
Record: 17-4, 7-3 Big Ten
KenPom: 9 (down 1 from last week
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Support matrix consensus seed: 3
Level 1 wins (KenPom) at home 1-30; Neutral 1-50; Exterior 1-75: 14 Nebraska (away), 19 Iowa (home), 20 Alabama (away), 22 Texas Tech (neutral), 31 Auburn (neutral), 36 Wisconsin (away), 48 USC (away)
Tier 2 Wins (KenPom): Home 31-75 Neutral 51-100; Outside 76-135: 45 Washington (home), 64 Akron (home), 93 Memphis
Level 1 wins (NET) at home 1-30; Neutral 1-50; Exterior 1-75: 12 Nebraska (away), 20 Texas Tech (neutral), 23 Alabama (away), 21 Iowa (home), 32 Auburn (neutral), 37 Wisconsin (away), 49 USC (away)
Level 2: Home 31-75 (NET) Neutral 51-100; Outside 76-135: 52 Washington (Home), 56 Akron (Home), 61 Washington (Home)
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Bad losses (Sub-100 NET or KenPom): None
Evansville Purple Aces (6-19, 1-12 MVC) – NET 282, KenPom 290 – Not much to say about Evansville. They lost in overtime at Valpo on Friday 70-63, but pulled off a surprising 88-80 win over Illinois State on Monday night, just their second in the MVC.
Oakland Golden Grizzlies (14-11, 10-4 Horizon) – NET 136, KenPom 129 – Just one game last week for Oakland, and it was a 91-78 loss at Cleveland State. They still sit in second place in the Horizon League, one game behind Wright State.
Alabama Crimson Tide (16-7, 6-4 SEC) – NET 23, KenPom 20 – The Tide won two great victories against Texas A&M (100-97) and Auburn (96-92) in the Iron Basketbowl. They are in a very crowded SEC field.
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Akron Zips (19-5, 10-1 MAC) – NET 54, KenPom 64 – Akron is doing well in the MAC after a close 66-64 win at Eastern Michigan, but they lost 79-69 at Troy in the MAC-Sun Belt Challenge.
Memphis Tigers (12-11, 7-4 American) – NET 104, KenPom 93 – The Tigers are about to move up to Tier 2 in terms of winning. Last week they won at UAB 90-80 and at home against Charlotte 77-54. This isn’t an NCAA team, but it’s almost a quality non-conference win.
Texas Tech Red Raiders (17-6, 7-3 Big 12) – NET 20, KenPom 22 – The Red Raiders earned a 70-63 victory at West Virginia on Sunday. This Saturday, they’ll travel to No. 1 Arizona for a chance to really increase the value of this win.
Eastern Illinois Panthers (10-16, 6-9 Ohio Valley) – NET 319, KenPom 322 – Like Evansville, there isn’t much here in the way of value. The Panthers have been on a three-game road trip since the last update and that included losses to Tennessee State (77-68) and a dismal Western Illinois team (79-70), but they did pick up a win against Tennessee Tech (60-54).
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Iowa State Cyclones (21-3, 8-3 Big 12) – NET 7, KenPom 7 – Iowa State faced Baylor at home 72-69, but suffered an upset at TCU last night 62-55 to fall off the pace of the Big 12. They missed a great opportunity to catch Arizona, and they now have three straight games against ranked teams coming up.
Marquette Golden Eagles (9-16, 4-10 Big East) – NET 111, KenPom 103 – Marquette earned a home win over Butler 70-55, but then suffered a tough loss at Villanova 77-74.
Auburn Tigers (14-10, 5-6 SEC) – NET 32, KenPom 31 – Auburn is this year’s team that played a tough schedule and will put together a near .500 season to earn an NCAA berth. They have now lost three in a row after falling to Alabama (as mentioned above) and at home to Vanderbilt 84-76. They could still withdraw from the tournament.
Kent State Golden Flashes (17-7, 8-3 MAC) – NET 144, KenPom 143 – The only game the Flashes played last week was a close 66-65 loss in the MAC-Sun Belt Challenge.
Probable NCAA teams: Alabama, Texas Tech, Iowa State, Auburn
Possible NCAA teams (could win automatic bids): Akron, Kent State, Oakland
Could play Bubble: None
