Anaheim, which is neck and neck with the Vegas Golden Knights for the Pacific Division title, has already matched its win total from last season (35) with 20 games remaining in the regular season. The Ducks have the third-longest playoff drought (seven seasons; most recent appearance: 2017-18) in the NHL behind the Buffalo Sabers (14) and Detroit Red Wings (nine), and all three teams were in position to make the playoffs in the third quarter of the season (March 6).
Here are three advanced stats scenarios surrounding Carlson that could help the Ducks win the Pacific Division and/or make a deep playoff run.
1. Shots by location
Carlson covers the three main filming locations at a high level; he ranked third among defensemen in high-danger shots on goal (15) this season before the trade, showing that he is still a driver of zone entries and scoring chances in different situations and regardless of his teammates.
He also ranked highly at his position in perimeter shot location categories before the trade; he was in the 90th percentile for mid-range goals (four), the 87th percentile for mid-range shots on goal (23), the 86th percentile for long-range goals (three), and the 85th percentile for long-range shots on goal (48).
Carlson is a three-time, 70-point defenseman who had his best season in 2019-20 (75 points in 69 games) and also had six seasons of at least 20 points on the power play (a career-high 33 in 2018-19). But this season, Washington’s power play struggled (16.4 percent; fifth-worst in the NHL) before the trade; Carlson had nine power play assists, mostly on the second unit, but did not score any power play goals.
2. Skating Ability
Even as a veteran, Carlson brought plenty of speed and playmaking ability to the Capitals and could now help the Ducks shift into another gear offensively. He ranked in the 86th percentile among defensemen for maximum skating speed (22.52 mph; 86th percentile) and the 88th percentile for power play skating distance (19.29 miles).
Carlson ranks fifth among active defenders in assists (311) and joins a defense corps with another veteran Jacob Trouba and promising players like Jackson LaCombe, Olen Zellweger And Pavel Mintyukov. One of Carlsson’s biggest tasks will be helping the Ducks improve their defensive play; despite being in a division title race, they are allowing 3.50 goals per game, second only to the Vancouver Canucks (3.71). Before the trade, Carlson was one of nine players in the NHL with at least 45 points (46) and 80 blocks (84) this season.
According to NHL EDGE IQ, the Ducks already had the most shot attempts per game (19.1) in the league before the Carlson trade. NHL EDGE IQ defines off-course shots as deducted shots (excluding attempts made more than 60 feet, beyond the goal line or against an empty net) that occur within five seconds of the puck crossing the offensive blue line.
