The other day was Tampa Bay Lightning Day on the league’s website. As they do for every team in the league, they dedicated the day to topics such as:
NHL Statistics for the Lightning
Tampa Bay Lightning Fantasy Projections
Tampa Bay Lightning’s Top Prospects
A look at the Tampa Bay Lightning team
The last post was their popular “3 Questions the Tampa Bay Lightning Face” .
As we enter the last week of August, we thought it would be interesting to answer these questions ourselves. Feel free to share your thoughts in the comments. Consider this the first in a series of season preview posts that will appear over the next month. Hockey is almost here, friends!
Question #1
Are the Lightning still a Stanley Cup contender?
The answer is yes. Are they Stanley Cup favorites? The answer is no. All a team needs to win the Stanley Cup is a seat at the table. In this case, the table is the playoffs, and despite all the subtractions of the last few seasons, the Bolts are still a playoff team. They may be a borderline playoff team, but there is a good chance they can find a way to make the playoffs (Hard Rock Bet has them at -230 to make the playoffs for you gambling enthusiasts).
As for being a favorite, let’s not kid ourselves. It will be a tall order to make it to the Eastern Conference Finals this year. The Atlantic Division will be tough this year. Florida, Toronto and Boston haven’t suffered crushing defeats (although the Bruins’ new goaltending duo could be a step backwards). Buffalo is knocking on the playoff door for the fourth straight season. Ottawa, Detroit and Montreal may not be ready for prime time yet, but they won’t be underdogs either. Reaching the 95-plus point barrier that seems to be the playoff cutoff will be tough for the Bolts.
Still, they have the offensive firepower to overcome some of the other issues they might face. Andrei Vasilevskiy is coming back from a full summer without back rehab, and Nikita Kucherov may be playing with some grit. Jake Guentzel brings a history of offensive production, and the swap of Mikhail Sergachev for Ryan McDonagh on the second pair should, in theory, bolster the defense.
Question #2
Will they be better defensively?
Well, they better be. That’s the million dollar question for the Lightning this season (along with the $500,000 question: Can they improve their 5-on-5 scoring?). They need to give up fewer goals this season. That’s it, it’s the title.
As the chart shows, the number of goals allowed has been steadily increasing, both overall and at 5-on-5, since the 2020-21 season (also known as the second year of the Stanley Cup). More than the offence, it’s the defence that has been most affected by the talent attrition that comes with success. Despite his best efforts, Julien BriseBois couldn’t seem to stem the flow of pucks heading towards the Lightning’s net.
The move to a more forechecking-oriented team last season didn’t seem to pay off, especially since that style of play isn’t exactly what their top forwards like to do. Aside from the Guentzel-for-Stamkos trade, there hasn’t been much change in the forward ranks. Tyler Motte is out and Zemgus Girgensons is back. Offensive player Anthony Duclair is also gone with the addition of an unknown in Cam Atkinson.
On defense, the upgrades come from Ryan McDonagh in place of Mikhail Sergachev and JJ Moser in place of the rotation of players they had on the third pair last season. Moser could help offset the loss of some of the offense generated by Sergachev while Mr. BriseBois and coach Cooper hope the reunion of McDonagh and Erik Cernak will give them the locking pair they have been missing since the Mack Truck was traded to Nashville.
Undermanned, the Lightning should still be one of the best teams in the league. They have a lot of forwards to replace and their top defensive pairings are still there, with McDonagh theoretically giving them an upgrade.
A full season of Andrei Vasilevskiy between the pipes shouldn’t hurt either. Jonas Johansson did a terrific job after being thrust into the starting role to start the season, but he’s no Vasy. Even Vasy wasn’t Vasy for parts of last season, but seemed to find his old groove as things went on. Now, with a full offseason behind him (and hopefully no gym-related injuries), he should reclaim his place among the league’s elite. The Bolts don’t need him to be the best, but if he has a top-10 season, they should see their goals-against numbers drop significantly.
If they can get back under 3.00 goals against per 60 games, they should have the offense to remain competitive in the Eastern Conference. Of the 12 teams that posted a goals against average under 3.00 last season, only the Buffalo Sabres failed to make the playoffs. A single number may be the most isolated, but three seems to be the magic number for success in the NHL.
Question #3
What will change in the power play?
The good news is that three of the four most important players on the league’s best power play are still with the team. Victor Hedman is still there moving the puck from side to side. Nikita Kucherov is still on the middle boards working his magic and Brayden Point is still in the slot taking dangerous shots at will.
While they flirted with Anthony Cirelli and Nick Paul in the low zone, the big hole in the top unit will be Steven Stamkos’ direct shot from the left circle. The threat of that shot has always scattered defenses, giving Point and Hedman space to operate in the middle while giving Kucherov passing options. Things will change without Stamkos pounding the puck from his desk.
Guentzel is the most likely replacement for Stamkos, but he’s not a one-timer. His role is more akin to Paul or Cirelli, deflecting pucks down low or blocking rebounds. The Bolts don’t really have a one-timer that Stamkos has, so whoever takes that spot will likely play a little closer to the blue line.
It wouldn’t be surprising to see the Bolts play more of a box-and-one style with two players on the blue line. Kucherov could fill that role, his wrist shot is deceptive enough that he can score from that distance and he can still serve Point and Guentzel down low.
There will be a lot of changes to the power play in training camp and the units could be changed several times in practice and pre-season games.
