When did you realize that this weekend’s wild-card matches really, well…stinked? Was it when Justin Herbert threw his fourth interception? When Pittsburgh punted for the fourth consecutive time open the game? When Denver three and out again and again and again?
Thank heaven for Tampa Bay-Washington Divisional Doink which ended a streak of four consecutive ugly football games. Without it, we would have had a relentless weekend of terrible pro football…a stark contrast to the two instant classics of the College Football Playoffs that led into the NFL playoffs.
This opening round of the NFL playoffs—don’t call it “Super Wild Card Weekend” anymore, the NFL has quietly trashed that horrible branding—actually replicated the first round of the CFP in a bad way. In each of the first four games, three of which were certified blowouts, the home team dusted off the visitors without much trouble or drama. All four winners took the lead they never would have relinquished in the first half – sometimes early (Philadelphia, 101 seconds into the game) and sometimes late (Houston, 58 seconds before halftime). By the end of the four games, the announcers were already predicting the next round match well before the clock hit zero.
The simple truth about football, both at the college and professional level, is this: the gap between the elite teams and the rest of the world is vast and virtually unbridgeable. (And the Chargers’ ability to saw off each other remains unmatched.) Only the variance of single-game football allows unexpected results to occasionally arise; If the Bills played the Broncos in a best-of-seven game, Denver would have the chance to force a sixth game.
The six-game wild card round has variations, but it tends toward a familiar pattern. Since the playoffs expanded to six wild-card weekend games in 2020, the higher seed tends to win, and win by a larger and larger margin.
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In 2024, there will be a maximum of two one-possession games, if Minnesota and the Rams stay close on Monday night. The top seed has won four out of five so far.
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In 2023, only one of the first round games was within 14 points. (The Lions beat the Rams, 24-23.) The higher seed has won five of six.
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In 2022, there have actually been four one-possession games, including Jacksonville’s 27-0 rally. The higher seed has won four of six.
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In 2021, there have been two one-possession games, and the higher seed has won five of six.
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In 2020, when the playoffs started, there were three-on-one possession games. The higher seed has only won two out of six, but 2020 was a strange year that shouldn’t count for anything anyway.
What does all this mean for the upcoming playoffs? Well, in the same way that adding ice cubes to your beer won’t do much for flavor, adding more teams to the playoffs won’t do anything for the competitive balance of the playoffs. Because, let’s remember… you don’t add these teams to the top of the table.
Combine the inevitable expansion of the NFL playoffs to 16 teams with the inevitable expansion of the league to 18 games, and you can see where we’re headed — more playoff blowouts, more less-than-qualified teams in the playoffs.
The argument for extending the playoffs is obvious: more teams = more fans invested in the playoff race = more revenue. But remember how the “race” to the playoffs went this year: only three teams were still in contention in Week 18 that didn’t make the playoffs, and the Falcons, Dolphins, and Bengals haven’t exactly spent this season covering themselves in glory only to fail at the last second. The NFL has a lot of bad teams every year, and allowing two of them to slip into the playoffs will do nothing to improve the overall product.
There’s always a chance you’ll get a miraculous outcome like Washington-Tampa Bay. But it’s likely that in every wild weekend to come, the Texans’ annual Saturday afternoon fight will be the rule, rather than the unavoidable exception.
