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Doug Kezirian, ESPN Sports Betting Insider
If the global betting market is any indication, then sports radio and every other pundit have overblown a polarizing NFL topic this week.
THE Indianapolis Colts shocked the football world by hiring Jeff Saturday as interim head coach, even though the former Colts center has no coaching experience at the college or professional level. This decision was lambasted and ridiculed across the board.
However, following the announcement, big punters have backed Indy, who visits the Las Vegas Raiders on Sunday. The Raiders are now favorites with 4.5 points, after opening the gap to 6.5. Las Vegas has many problems, including a worse record, but they at least have a veteran quarterback in Derek Carr as opposed to the Colts’ 24-year-old Sam Ehlinger.
“We will adjust (the line) if they announce that their only NFL-quality quarterback on their roster is named the starter,” BetMGM vice president of commerce Jason Scott told ESPN, referring to the veteran QB. Matt Ryan. “For all we know, Saturday might be the best head coach on the sidelines.”
That’s what makes this situation so compelling. We all recognize the complexities of the league and praise wizards like Bill Belichick and even younger offensive minds like Sean McVay, Kyle Shanahan and Mike McDaniel. However, the betting community has yet to react negatively to the arrival of a rookie head coach and a brand new player in Parks Frazier, who has never handled this responsibility in any capacity.
“With this team, it doesn’t matter. They already suck,” Ed Salmons, head of football betting at SuperBook, told ESPN. And while nothing is that simple or even binary, it might be unfair to automatically assume that an inexperienced coach will result in a dropout. Indy is 0-9 against the spread in the first half this season, which I would say is a clear indication of an unprepared team.
The Raiders have already tied an NFL record by blowing 17-point leads three times this season. But the positive side is that they have the talent to build those leads, while Indy has the chance to put together three scores in any game. Ehlinger is not expected to start in the NFL and ESPN’s Football Power Index has that margin at 13.1 points in favor of Vegas. So no matter who coaches, I put the points.
The numbers to know
Seattle Seahawks against. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-2.5, 45)
Sunday, 9:30 a.m. ET, Allianz Arena, Munich, Germany
As I indicated last week, the betting market still believes in Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, even though they have the worst coverage percentage in the NFL (2-6-1 ATS). In fact, Tampa is 0-6-1 ATS in their last seven games. Perhaps a change of scenery will end this series, as the Bucs face the Seattle Seahawks in Munich, Germany as 2.5-point favorites.
Once again, big money came to Tampa Bay, which briefly increased the point spread to three points. This prompted another respected bet, but this time on the Seahawks, bringing the line back to 2.5 points. As I noted, three is the most key number in NFL handicapping, which is why professional bettors are so stubborn about finding the right line. Since the extra point distance declined in 2015, 14% of games have been decided by exactly three points. The second most common margin of victory is seven points (9%).
I respect Tampa’s defense, but I don’t understand why they are favored. The offense is a mess, despite Brady’s late-game heroics last week. I have high regard for Seattle, and the coaching staff has positioned Geno Smith impressively and he has delivered. Give me the Seahawks. Frankly, the betting market can be wrong. If the Bucs lose, they will become only the second team in the Super Bowl era with a losing record in 10 games despite being favored in every game.
Line Movement of the Week
Minnesota Vikings has Buffalo Bills (-6.5, 44.5)
Sunday, 1:05 p.m. ET, Highmark Stadium, Orchard Park, New York
When an MVP betting favorite has uncertain status for a game, the betting market will definitely see this effect. The Buffalo Bills began the week as 8.5-point home favorites against the Minnesota Vikings. A respected bet came on the “dog”, which began to narrow the point gap. Around this time, news of Josh Allen’s right elbow injury surfaced. Oddsmakers began lowering the line further and one respected bettor even bet the Vikings +3.5 on Friday, which gave one bettor confidence that Allen wouldn’t play. After all, in these situations, smart money usually represents solid information.
However, the winds began to change Saturday, even though Allen only practiced once this week. The Bills did not activate third baseman Matt Barkley, meaning only two quarterbacks are active for the game. This suggests Allen will be available, with Case Keenum as backup. With the star QB officially listed as questionable, the point spread is back up to 6.5 points.
Sharp report
The Sages were heavily involved in the line movement surrounding the Vikings-Bills game. In addition, they have evolved the market into other games. As always, it is important to remind everyone that the numbers they enter are rarely yet available. Additionally, we sometimes see two-way professional money on a particular game.
However, based on my sources, here’s what I’ve heard about the most accurate bets for this NFL card: Texans +7 and +6.5, Browns +3.5, Colts +6.5, Rams – 3, Jaguars/Chiefs over 50.5, Cowboys/Packers. over 43 and 49ers -7.
