NFL Thursday Night Football Preview: Josh Allen tries to put Bills past Texans

Before the season, the Buffalo Bills and Houston Texans were the clear favorites to win their respective divisions. Things didn’t turn out that way.

The Texans are 5-5, in third place in the AFC South and three games behind the first-place Indianapolis Colts. The 7-3 Bills are a game and a half behind the New England Patriots in the AFC East.

The Bills have a better chance at winning a division title, but they can’t afford to drop many more games. The good news for Buffalo is that it won’t face Houston at full strength. Quarterback CJ Stroud will miss his second straight game with a concussion. Davis Mills will take his place. Last week, the Texans needed a last-second field goal to beat the Tennessee Titans, who have the NFL’s worst record at 1-9. Mills wasn’t too bad though, throwing for 274 yards and a touchdown. He will have to do his best for the Texans to win and maintain some hope of remaining in the playoff race.

The other quarterback just won a historic game. Reigning NFL MVP Josh Allen had six touchdowns last week, three passing and three receiving. Allen now has two of three games in NFL history with three passing touchdowns and three rushing touchdowns. Otto Graham owns the other, in 1954.

Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen (17) attempts to elude Houston Texans defensive end Danielle Hunter (55) during a game in Houston last season. (Photo by Leslie Plaza Johnson/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

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The bills have some flaws. There isn’t a lot of firepower in the passing game for Allen to work with. Defense ranks 22nd in DVOA and 19th in EPA (expected points added) per authorized game. A team that dreamed of the Super Bowl in late September now finds itself facing a much more difficult path. Thursday’s game is important for both teams, even if they haven’t lived up to expectations so far this season.

Who needs it most?

It’s important for both. For the Bills, a loss on Thursday puts them even further behind the Patriots in the AFC East and a very important home game to start the playoffs. But it’s hard to imagine the Bills will miss the playoffs and could enter as a wild-card team. The Texans, on the other hand, need to start collecting wins. They are now on the fringes of the playoff race, but a win against the Bills as an underdog would put them in the conversation. Houston needs this win for its playoff survival.

Key players: Texans DE Danielle Hunter and Will Anderson

The Texans probably have the best defense in the NFL. They lead the league in yards allowed and points allowed. They are among the league leaders in advanced metrics, including first in EPA allowed per play. The key on defense could be Hunter and Anderson, a pair of fantastic passers. They have 17 sacks between them. Josh Allen is a tough quarterback to sack; he only took 14 sacks last season. His elusiveness and strength are an asset. The game could hinge on whether Anderson and Hunter can take Allen down when they get the chance.

Betting Market Monitoring

This gap has evolved, with the banknote forecast line of -2.5, reopening at -3.5 on Sunday afternoon. Sharp action at -4 and -4.5 came in anticipation of Texans quarterback CJ Stroud being ruled out for a second straight game with a concussion – which is indeed what happened. The line now extends to Buffalo -6 and the crowd – unsurprisingly – is all over the Bills. Both teams need this game for their respective playoffs, but it’s a vital game for Buffalo if it wants to have any chance of catching the Patriots for the AFC East crown. — Ben Fawkes

Check out more of Ben’s work at the Yahoo Sports betting center.

The Bills have been mixed on the road this year – destroying the Jets and Panthers, but falling to the Falcons and Dolphins. Houston’s excellent defense presents a challenge, but the Texans obviously still have recourse to a backup quarterback. Here are three fantastic angles to consider Thursday night:

1. Is Woody Marks ready to go? Buffalo’s ground defense ranks 30th in DVOA and Sean Tucker was the last to exploit it. Marks has been inconsistent in recent games, but he’s put up double-digit carries in five straight weeks as he essentially takes over Houston’s backfield.

2. Who rides shotgun with Josh Allen? Even though the Texans are the stingiest defense when it comes to QB points allowedAllen’s rushing equity makes him an automatic starter anywhere. But the Bills like to rotate their receivers and no one is in the Top 30 in Fantasy rankings. Khalil Shakir is the preferred slot option, and Tyrell Shavers showed up last week (4-90-1).

3. Is Davis Mills better for Nico Collins? Houston’s top receiver is on a WR5 and WR4 streak over the past two weeks, in part because Mills loves targeting Collins off the bus (25 looks in two games). Collins has just one Top 15 finish with CJ Stroud this year. — Scott Pianoowski

See more of Scott’s work at Yahoo Sports Fantasy Center.