Game of the Week – Buffalo Bills (9-4) vs. New England Patriots (11-2)
Serious debate could take place around this week’s high-profile match. The Rams, the current No. 1 seed in the NFC, host the Lions, who won first place in the conference last season. The AFC-leading Denver Broncos host the Green Bay Packers, who still have a chance to secure a first-round bye in the NFC. Either way, you won’t be disappointed. However, there is a third way: Buffalo versus New England. The emphasis is on the generosity that victory brings rather than the perils of defeat on Sunday. The Patriots can regain the AFC’s No. 1 seed while Buffalo can take a chance on snatching the AFC East title from New England. Oh, and two MVP candidates, Drake Maye and Josh Allen, run the show. This could be a classic.
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What the Bills must do to win: Take care of the football. In Week 5, the Patriots beat the Bills 23-20, or rather Buffalo handed their rivals a victory via three costly turnovers. Allen and company witnessed the devastating effect of turnovers only last week against the Bengals when Joe Burrow’s two interceptions completely turned the snow game on its head, allowing the Bills to pull back. If the Bills cut down on mistakes to increase their chances of getting into the red zone, they can exploit one of New England’s weaknesses. Patriots opponents score a touchdown on 73.1% of red zone trips, the highest rate in the NFL this season.
If Allen can make drives go the distance, then his ability to demolish New England with his arm or running power surely increases those chances of scoring even more. What should allow Buffalo to really settle into moving the ball with precision is the way their defense has started to play thanks to Christian Benford. The cornerback is the first player in franchise history to score a defensive touchdown in successive games while also recording a sack and recovering a fumble in its last pair of victories. If that doesn’t inspire confidence, nothing will.
What the Patriots must do to win: Dedicate resources to containing Buffalo’s running game. New England ranks third against the run (89.5 yards per game). When they beat the Bills earlier this season, James Cook could only manage 49 yards on 15 carries, his third-lowest total of 2025, and the Pats finished with 118 yards, their fourth-lowest rushing mark as a team.
If the Patriots slow Cook down, it will force Allen to produce more against the Patriots’ stout pass defense. The stats haven’t been pretty, but New England’s dominance on long drives in most games means opponents have thrown it here, there and everywhere. These frequent moments of desperation — the Patriots played pass defense on 60.8 percent of their plays, fifth-most in the NFL — lead to skewed production. The Patriots pass the defense better than the eye test in more consistent playing conditions. They’ll be confident handling Buffalo’s weak receiving team if they get enough looks with Cook out of the equation.
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On the Rise (Somehow) – Indianapolis Colts
After losing starting quarterback Daniel Jones for the season to a torn Achilles, the Colts should be toast. They probably still are: Their remaining schedule includes four teams currently in the playoffs: the Seahawks, 49ers, Jaguars and Texans. There’s also the small matter of the man who could start in Jones’ place on Sunday: Philip Rivers, 44-year-old grandfather and high school coach, whom the Colts have pulled out of retirement to fill the void. Rivers, if he plays, will almost certainly fail, but the Colts could do with a comfort story after the pain of losing Jones. Even if the feel-good story only lasts a single moment, with Rivers handing it off to Jonathan Taylor for a touchdown, the veteran will have put the pieces together for a brief moment.
Fall – Detroit Lions
This season the Lions have the bad habit of following a victory with a defeat. The yo-yo routine needs to stop for the team to have a chance at making the playoffs – they’re sitting on the bubble at 8-5. Only the Lions haven’t had a winning streak since losing 4-1 after beating the Bengals, and a trip to Los Angeles to face the Rams rings alarm bells. LA destroyed Arizona 45-17 last week. Dan Campbell’s threadbare defense, which just added key safety Brian Branch to its 10-man injured list, could make it easy for the Rams to score again at will. The highlight for the Lions is that the teams with a one-game lead in the wild-card race, Chicago and San Francisco, face Cleveland and Tennessee. A defeat puts Detroit in a difficult situation. However, a glimmer of hope remains in a Week 18 matchup with the Bears. Praying for one loss to catch them in time rather than two would seem much more feasible.
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Race for the No. 1 pick
Three horses lead the race for the top pick in next year’s draft: the New York Giants, Las Vegas Raiders and Tennessee Titans. The backcourt players share a record of 2-11 with five others right behind at 3-10. The form indicates that the Giants and Raiders are the most likely to face each other, as they share seven-game losing streaks, but this is not a battle fought with logic or conventional wisdom. It’s a Salvador Dalí-inspired fever dream in which wild, random victories by teams on life support emerge in the toughest of times…with the Browns one step ahead. Yes, Tennessee is still the heavy favorite to pick first again despite winning last week. The San Francisco machine will crush them on Sunday as the 49ers pursue the Rams and Seahawks. The Raiders should stay on their shoulder after a meeting with the Eagles (but who knows these days) while the Giants could make the commanders’ job easier and jump into the group of teams with three wins.
If the season ended today…
AFC: 1) Denver 11-2; 2) New England 11-2; 3) Jacksonville 9-4; 4) Pittsburgh 7-6; 5) LA 9-4 Chargers; 6) Buffalo 9-4; 7) Houston 8-5. Bubble: Indianapolis 8-5
NFC: 1) LA Rams 10-3; 2) Baie Verte 9-3-1; 3) Philadelphia 8-5; 4) Carolina 7-6; 5) Seattle 10-3; 6) San Francisco 9-4; 7) Chicago 9-4. Bubble: Detroit 8-5
