NFL Playoff Projection: Chiefs’ Colts will go a long way in shaping AFC bracket

Before the season, it wouldn’t have been strange to believe that a Week 12 game between the Indianapolis Colts and Kansas City Chiefs would feature one team vying for the AFC’s No. 1 seed, with the other simply hoping to sneak into the playoffs.

This is what the Colts are to the Chiefs, but with a twist.

The Colts are 8-2 and are one of the few contenders to finish with the best record in the AFC this season. Meanwhile, the most surprising story of the season might be that the Chiefs are 5-5, with a real possibility of missing the playoffs. It seemed unimaginable before the season, but a loss to the Colts on Sunday will push them even further back in the race.

The Chiefs’ biggest problem might be tiebreakers. They won’t have a tiebreaker against the Jaguars or Bills, and right now, they don’t have one against the Broncos or Chargers either (Kansas City still has games against Denver and Los Angeles). A 10-7 record for the Chiefs — which would require a 5-2 finish — might not be enough if the tiebreakers don’t go well. Every victory is crucial for them.

The Colts had a great season, but the Patriots and Broncos also had just two losses in the race for the No. 1 seed. And if Indianapolis loses, they could be just one game ahead of the Jaguars in the AFC South with two games remaining against Jacksonville. All eyes will be on the Chiefs, but this is also a crucial game for the Colts.

Here are the other Week 12 games that will have the biggest impact on the playoff picture:

Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Chicago Bears

It’s a meeting between the NFL’s most fragile division leaders. Both are in first place, but the Steelers have the Ravens charging hard from behind and Bears’ 7-3 start called into question due to negative point differential and their many close victories against bad teams. They also play in a strong NFC North and it won’t be easy to resist the Lions and Packers.

But one of these first-place teams will take a step closer to a division championship. Regardless of either team’s perception, each victory moves them closer to their rivals for a division championship.

Philadelphia Eagles vs. Dallas Cowboys

After the Cowboys improved to 4-5-1 with a win over the Raiders, there was inevitable talk of the Cowboys getting back into the playoff race. The problem is that they’re going to have to beat good teams to make the playoffs, and their win list this season consists of the Giants, Jets, Commanders, and Raiders. Dallas has yet to show the ability to beat a playoff-level team. But a win against the Eagles could make the idea of the Cowboys being a wild-card contender more realistic.

The Eagles are in position to secure the No. 1 seed, but that challenge has become more difficult with the injury to right tackle Lane Johnson, which will sideline him for 4-6 weeks. This is a big loss for the Eagles. The Eagles are still in good shape, but a loss on Sunday would be good news for the Rams, who are the only other team in the NFC with just two losses.

Carolina Panthers vs. San Francisco 49ers

The 49ers have their flaws, but they are 7-4 and their next three games are against the Panthers, against the Browns and against the Titans. They will be favored in all three games, and if they win all three, they will be 10-4 and in fantastic shape for a wild card spot.

The Panthers might have other plans. A San Francisco win would put them in a tie with San Francisco and also give them the head-to-head tiebreaker. It would also put a lot more pressure on the Buccaneers, who have a tough road game against the Rams this week. If the Panthers win and the Buccaneers lose, Carolina will move into first place in the NFC South. This Monday night game has clear playoff implications.