Cincinnati Bengals
A slow start to the season is familiar territory for Cincinnati. In six seasons under Zac Taylor, the Bengals have started 0-2 five times. But losing their first three games is new, and the odds are stacked against them now. Only four of 162 teams that started 0-3 have made the playoffs since 1990. The expanded format helps tilt the odds slightly in Cincy’s favor, but not by much.
On the positive side, the Bengals looked imperfect in all three games this season, but they were just a few plays away from going 3-0. The negative side is that once again, they struggled to get their offense moving, and for the first time since Joe Burrow came to town, the defense hit rock bottom.
Through three weeks, the Bengals have the NFL’s 30th-ranked defense in EPA per play, a measure of end-to-end efficiency. And if that’s enough to make a team nervous, the numbers under the hood are even more disconcerting. Cincy had a pass-rush win rate of just 9.8 percent against Washington on Monday night. It’s not how often pass rushers have come close to hitting Jayden Daniels, it’s how often defenders beat individual blockers. In 10 years of recorded data, this is the worst pass-rush performance ever recorded.
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Burrow and the offense provide hope. After a Week 1 bust against the Patriots, the offense was good — Burrow threw five touchdowns and no interceptions. If that can hold up, then the Bengals should be able to sneak back into the wild-card race. They have a favorable schedule over the next four weeks with games against the Panthers, Giants, Browns and Ravens that could see them get closer to .500. But unless they can find some juice on the defensive line, they’ll be out of the playoff race by Thanksgiving.
Panic Level: 10/10
Travis Kelce
Travis Kelce has had a slow start. And there are many theories as to why. Is he too many podcasts? He’s worried about his movie career? He’s spending too much time with Tay? The most likely explanation is simple: he’s a 34-year-old tight end.
Playing tight end is brutal and grueling. When the decline comes, it comes quickly. And there were warning signs last year that the end was near. In 2023, he started slowly, caught fire in the middle of the schedule, then had another decline toward the end of the regular season. With the exception of a few big games against the Bills and Raiders, Kelce struggled in the Chiefs’ final nine regular-season games. But by the time the playoffs rolled around, he was back to his best.
This season could follow a similar trajectory. Although he’s getting older, Kelce is still capable of being one of the most dynamic weapons in the league. He still has an unwavering connection with Patrick Mahomes that can get KC’s offense out of tight spots. The days of him being a guaranteed first down may be over, but he’s still a big play waiting to be made.
As the Chiefs work on a new receiving corps and seek out a younger tight end in Noah Gray to ease Kelce’s burden, his numbers will drop — apologies to fantasy fans. But by the end of the season, Kelce will still be the one Mahomes relies on for the games he absolutely must play, and he still has plenty of potential to be a difference-maker.
Panic Level: 3/10
Dallas Cowboys
It has to be said that Dallas finds new and grotesque ways to entertain viewers every season. And as if this season’s setbacks weren’t enough, this season’s twist is a real head-scratcher: they’re allergic to stopping the race.
There’s nothing more demoralizing for a team than getting the ball over and over again. Over the past three weeks, the Cowboys have fielded the league’s worst run defense — and it’s not particularly close. They rank 32nd in EPA per play; they’ve given up more explosive runs than any other team in the league; they’ve missed more tackles than anyone else. And there may be no more damning statistic in the opening leg of the season than Dallas’ 6.18 average depth of tackles. That’s not a typo. The Cowboys are giving up tackles six meters even before a defender says hello to the ball carrier.
A lot goes into the race stop. But it can be summed up in three fundamentals: talent, technique and tenacity. The Cowboys are missing in all three — and that’s at all three levels of the defense. Rewatch their matchups against the Ravens or Saints and you’ll see the defensive line pushed back, the linebackers struggling and the safeties getting lost in the carnage unfolding in front of them. It’s disconcerting, sometimes amateurish. So far, adjustments to the scheme and personnel haven’t alleviated the problem.
“We have to be thorough,” defensive end Jourdan Lewis said Monday. “I mean, at the end of the day, it’s about stopping people. That’s exactly what it’s about.” The details are scarce, but the Cowboys simply lack players up front. Former first-round pick Mazi Smith has struggled to keep up with the NFL’s speed at defensive tackle, and they’ve rotated a rotation of grizzled veterans alongside him whose best days are long gone.
Of all the problems that have plagued the Cowboys’ poor start to the season, none is as destabilizing as their inability to stop the run. And finding a solution midseason will be a challenge.
Panic Level: 8/10
Jacksonville Jaguars
You know things have reached a critical point when a head coach is talking about overhauling his entire offense three weeks into the season. “There’s got to be changes, whether it’s game design, personnel, everything,” Doug Pederson said after Monday night’s 47-10 loss to the Bills.
Over the last 10 quarters, Jacksonville has scored just 23 points and converted just 18 percent of its third downs. But beyond the results, there’s a sense that Jacksonville’s offense has no identity, no organizing principle. They play like a student who botched a test the night before. Everything feels sloppy. Nothing flows. This is an offense devoid of ideas, paired with a quarterback, Trevor Lawrence, who continues to miss easy opportunities when they present themselves.
If blame is to be assigned, the Jaguars’ management should be largely to blame for an underdeveloped roster and a coaching staff that has left the offense unprepared. But Lawrence has his flaws, too. For all his physical talent, he continues to make ugly, almost inexplicable decisions. On any given week, he’s as likely to throw a mind-numbing turnover as he is to make the shot of the day. At some point, inconsistency isn’t an infuriating habit that keeps you from reaching your full potential. It’s who you are.
Given the current schedule, Pederson could be out of a job by the time the Jaguars return from London in October.
Panic Level: 9/10
Caleb Williams
After clinching the championship title in the offseason, the Bears’ start to the season has been disappointing. An offense that was supposed to be a firework has failed. Meanwhile, Chicago has been forced to watch Jayden Daniels sets fire to the secondary and Justin Fields guides the Steelers to a 3-0 record.
But there’s no need to panic. Caleb Williams may have arrived in Chicago with a lot of enthusiasm, finding himself in one of the best situations in a long time for a No. 1 overall quarterback. The Bears have surrounded their young QB with a flashy receiving corps. They’ve invested heavily in their offensive line. On the other side of the ball, they’ve got back the bulk of a defense that finished in the top five last season. But teething problems were to be expected.
The early returns have been scattered. Williams has made poor decisions. At times, the game has moved too quickly for him. His accuracy has been choppy and he has been eager to get away from the attack to try to create. But even amid the early misfires, there are flashes of the player Williams will hopefully become. So far, his offensive line has been a sieve, forcing him to give in to his free-agent habit. If that tightens up even slightly, Williams will be able to distribute the ball more effectively.
The optimism of early August may have faded, and the rest of the roster may be further away from the playoff race than expected. But when it comes to Williams, Chicago should take heed of the words of a former enemy.
Panic Level: 2/10
