Nothing against the Philadelphia Eagles, who are having an impressive run. But the story of the NFC championship game — and probably the entire NFL season — is that of Jayden Daniels.
Daniels, the second pick in the NFL draft who had what is likely the best rookie season for a quarterback in league historywill try to do something that has never been done before. If the Washington Commanders win on Sunday, Daniels would become the first rookie quarterback to start in a Super Bowl. He had many notable moments during a historic rookie season, but writing that story would take a long time.
The Eagles have their own fantastic stories, starting with Saquon Barkley’s magical season that will go down as one of the best running back seasons in NFL history. But this weekend, the stage belongs to a rookie quarterback who is trying to pull off another upset and make history.
The match
No. 6 Washington Commanders (14-5) and No. 2 Philadelphia Eagles (16-3)
Lincoln Financial Field | Philadelphia
3 p.m. ET
How to Watch Commanders at Eagles
This match will be broadcast on Fox and Fox Deportes.
Betting Odds
The Eagles are 6-point favorites at BetMGM. The line opened at Eagles -5 and moved, showing some hesitation about commanders in the betting market. For a Week 11 game Thursday night in Philadelphia, the Eagles were 4.5-point favorites. When the teams met in Washington in Week 16, the Commanders were a 4-point underdog. The game total is 47.5.
X factor
One way or another, the commanders need to slow Saquon Barkley down. In the two regular season games, Barkley totaled 146 and 150 yards against them. Washington probably doesn’t hold Barkley within 100 yards. He has reached 100 yards in 11 of his last 13 games. The Commanders gave up the third-most rushing yards and fifth-most rushing yards in the NFL for the regular season. But they need to find a way to keep Barkley from taking over the game, and that probably starts with their linebackers. Bobby Wagner had another exceptional season. He ranked second among linebackers in run defense this season. at Pro Football Focus. Frankie Luvu was an expert in free agency. He had 10 tackles and two sacks in the first meeting with the Eagles. The Commanders’ top two linebackers are crucial to preventing the Eagles from running on them. Others, like safety Jeremy Chinn, will also need to step up. Barkley is going to gain a lot of yards. But Washington’s run defense needs to make sure he doesn’t waste it with multiple big plays. This is a big ask.
How Commanders Can Win
Every week it’s the same answer, and it’s Jayden Daniels. Although there is sometimes too much emphasis on quarterbacks, in the case of the Commanders, their success really rests on their star rookie. The Commanders aren’t completely devoid of talent, but their roster is clearly far worse than any other team in the NFL’s final four. But they have a special quarterback. Washington turned the tide five times in the Week 16 win over the Eagles (they clearly can’t do it again), but still won because Daniels threw five touchdowns. Since late September, the Eagles have allowed more than 23 points in one game, and those are the 36 they have allowed to Washington. The Commanders need to play the same efficient offensive football they have played most of the season, including converting some key fourth downs that Dan Quinn likes to make, and hope the defense can make enough plays to give Daniels a chance to win it in the end. This formula has produced many victories for Washington this season.
How the Eagles can win
The Eagles have totaled 186 passing yards in two playoff games. Last week’s snowstorm allowed Philadelphia to pick up just 65 passing yards, but their lack of a productive passing game still seems impossible for an elite team in this era. However, the Eagles have figured out how they want to play. Saquon Barkley will carry the offense while everyone else can catch up on their reading, and great defense will get them home. If Jalen Hurts’ knee injury that he suffered in the divisional round, bothers him at all, so we’ll see even more emphasis on Barkley, if that’s possible. Philadelphia’s approach worked. The Philadelphia defense’s only bad game since September was against the Commanders in Week 16, and while that’s a bit concerning for Sunday’s challenge against Jayden Daniels, let’s assume defensive coordinator Vic Fangio will make adjustments. Philadelphia went old school, running the ball and playing defense to advance to the NFC Championship Game. And that will be their program as long as they are alive in these playoffs.
Prediction
The Eagles have lost one game since late September. This happened against the Commanders in Week 16. This game was unusual for Philadelphia, with Jalen Hurts leaving in the first quarter due to a concussion. The Eagles will likely still win this game if DeVonta Smith doesn’t drop a third-down pass late in the fourth quarter. That allowed Jayden Daniels to make a game-winning drive and throw his fifth touchdown of the game with six seconds left to win it. The Commanders also led Philadelphia in the fourth quarter of a Week 11 game, but the Eagles pulled away. Washington can compete with Philadelphia because it is well coached and has a dangerous quarterback. Ask the Detroit Lions. The Eagles have the better team, with more talent on the roster and a 14-1 record since Week 4. In their three losses, they have allowed game-winning touchdowns with 34 seconds left (vs. Atlanta in Week 4). 2) and there were six seconds left in another. This level of dominance should eventually take over the NFC title game. But it won’t be easy. Philadelphia 24, Washington 21
