During the final month of the men’s college basketball regular season, there were seemingly safe spots in the NCAA Large Pool Tournament available for pickup. However, most teams didn’t take them.
As a result, more than a handful of teams enter tournament week with work to do to make their way to the right side of the proverbial bubble. For some of these teams, the quest may already be over – better luck next year, Stanford.
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Here are five games to watch involving other bubble denizens in hopes of avoiding the same fate on the Wednesday schedule. All four power conferences are represented on this list, but we’ll start with a few more matchups in the ACC mentioned above.
North Carolina State vs. Pittsburgh
Time/TV: noon ET, ESPN2.
The Wolfpack have been an extremely inconsistent group, winning just once in their last seven outings. This win was a blowout against rival North Carolina, but some of the losses were downright unsightly. They’re probably still safe given the chaos that has reigned over the rest of the bubble in recent weeks, but a setback here against the Panthers, who are outside the top 100 in the NCAA NET rankings, would be more damaging than a result against Stanford would have been.
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SMU vs. Louisville
Time/TV: 2:30 p.m. ET, ESPN.
The Mustangs managed to avoid a loss to Syracuse in the first round of the ACC Tournament, and now they have an opportunity to strengthen their cause. The Cardinals are in much safer territory, thanks to a solid road win at Miami to conclude the regular season, but would still like to put together a strong showing heading into March Madness.
SMU guard Boopie Miller (2) dribbles the ball as Syracuse guard Naithan George (11) defends during the 2026 ACC Tournament game at the Spectrum Center in Charlotte, North Carolina.
Cincinnati vs. Central Florida
Time/TV: 3 p.m. ET, ESPNU.
The 8-9 pairing in the Big 12 second round isn’t a bubble-busting game per se. The Knights have a few more quality results on their resume and would likely still be underdogs, although they could move closer to the top four. The Bearcats spent much of the conference campaign trying to erase some poor results from November and early December. They won six of eight heading into the playoffs. A win wouldn’t guarantee them a spot, but it would keep them in the conversation.
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Auburn vs. Mississippi State
Time/TV: 3 p.m. ET, SECN.
Hardwood experts from almost every place in the country outside of Auburn, Ala., cite the Tigers, just a game above .500 entering the SEC Tournament, as Exhibit A in the case against NCAA expansion. Thanks to their volume, they’ve racked up plenty of Quad 1 wins, but the number in the loss column, especially if they were sub-.500 Bulldogs, would become too large to dismiss. Advancing isn’t enough for Steven Pearl’s team, but it gives them a chance to fight another day.
Indiana vs. Northwestern
Time/TV: 5:30 p.m. ET, BTN.
Exhibit B is Indiana, although most bracketologists have the Hoosiers on the outside looking in anyway. IU enters the Big Ten Tournament needing a deep run. Beating the Wildcats won’t shake things up in itself, but a loss would end any chance of adding quality wins.
This article was originally published on USA TODAY: NCAA Tournament Bubble Games Impact March Madness Court Wednesday
