We’re about a quarter of the way through the NBA regular season and it’s time to take a look back at the rookies. This is where things get interesting from an evaluation perspective. If the start of the season is surrounded by hope and optimism, this part of the program brings a measure of reality.
Adjustment, opportunity and context will rule the day among young players, but now we can see how the league has adapted to the rookies and how the rookies react to how the league has adapted to them.
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Scouting reports have been updated. What should they do to these recruits every night? Is the game slowing down for them? Do opponents treat them differently? Let’s take a look at the top 10 rookies.
1. Kon Knueppel, Hornets
Consistent, high-level production isn’t always the mark of a rookie campaign, but that’s exactly what sets Knueppel’s debut apart. Knueppel is the first player in NBA history to make 50 3-pointers in his first 15 career games, and the first Hornets rookie to score 20 points in at least 10 of his first 20 career games. The shot making speaks for itself, but he leverages those skills to open up drives.
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On dribble or pick-and-roll handoffs, a quick glance at the rim keeps defenders off-balance. His confidence continues to grow as he looks to make contact when he turns the corner. Whether on or off the ball, he strives to come off screens in order to open up space to attack. It was fun watching Knueppel battle as a screener, setting up flat angles to slide into space with defenses working to spin and take it away.
2. Cooper Flagg, Mavericks
Growth is the name of the game for Flagg, who has overcome some of the early season struggles and turned things around for the better. The 18-year-old, fourth in the NBA in clutch scoring (52 points on 13-of-27 shooting), has found increased comfort and confidence over the past month.
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In November, 26.1% of Flagg’s field goal attempts came in the restricted area (where he shot 75.4%). He works to get his head down and reach for his spots, and shows improved patience in waiting on screens and setting up his defender. And if the defense interrupts him on those drives, he works to turn, punch and finish. Dallas has him attacking more mismatches as the season progresses. The more he relies on these workouts, the more he can showcase his passing ability. This aggression will improve how Dallas can use Flagg in different ways offensively.
3. Cedric Coward, Grizzlies
The blistering 3-point shooting that Coward displayed to start the season has slowed (30.7 percent from 3 in November), but the confidence and impact have remained high. Coward has worked his way into the starting lineup and his versatility on and off the ball has contributed to the team’s growth.
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The nature of Memphis’ offensive flow gave Coward more opportunities to attack in pick-and-rolls or handoffs. Although he can reach his mid-range spot, I’m intrigued to see his mindset in practice. He has the size and length, but it feels like he could be even more physical when he gets deeper into the paint. His passing ability in practice has stood out, however, as he finds a way to make late passes when engaging the defense in space.
4. VJ Edgecombe, 76ers
Edgecombe’s score went down. It could be that more teams are working to take his shot away. It could be the returns of Paul George and Jared McCain. This could be his own return from injury. Or maybe it’s just the fact that his 3-point shot doesn’t fall at the same time. Either way, everything should even out, and it’s clear he remains a key piece for this Sixers team.
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A positive point is that he is always ready to let it fly from the depths. He just needs to remember that it was the mix of shots and drives that led to the hot start (10.6 drives per game in October, 6.4 drives per game in November).
5. Derik Queen, Pelicans
Since James Borrego took over as interim coach, the Pelicans have been more than willing to play Queen, who has demonstrated his unique versatility during this time. Allowing him to operate at the top of the key highlights his true strength: passing. If you haven’t seen Queen’s passing, he will quickly rise in your “that nice guy” ranking. And when defenses are working to eliminate cutters, he’s also not afraid to attack 1-on-1 and drive.
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Although it seems like you can pressure him on the perimeter, he is physical, understands angles and can take the corner. He also has good footwork, with the ability to turn and finish if you cut him. An area of opportunity presents itself on the defensive end, where he needs to do his job early. This will push him to make multiple efforts and avoid mistakes.
6. Jeremiah fears, pelicans
When it comes to rookies, Fears has the longest point streak with 10+ points (19 games). He can also unofficially lead all the rookies by confronting anyone (looking at you Luka Doncic and Jimmy Butler). The blazing speed with which Fears operates on the court speaks for itself, but you can see how the Pelicans have embraced him. Fears used quick throws or made field goal takeouts as an opportunity to attack before defenses were set up. And his tremendous momentum in the half-court works to manipulate defenders.
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What impressed me the most was his consistent physique. He lunges at defenders in the paint. And to add to the “Zero Miedo” bucket, Fears switching to Julius Randle and outright keeping Anthony Edwards last week was fun.
7. Dylan Harper, Spurs
Harper’s return to the lineup comes with a minutes restriction to facilitate it, but it also comes with opportunities as the Spurs await the return of Victor Wembanyama. My favorite rookie fun fact is that the Spurs are 9-1 this season when Harper plays 15 minutes or more (gotta use him while I can).
Harper’s confidence and composure continue to shine through. If defenses give him space, he is determined to take what he is given. As a patient driver and shifty ball handler, he gets to his spot without needing to outright use speed. He also rejects pick-and-rolls to keep defenses off balance, employing a constant pace to survey the court. Defenders don’t know if he’s looking to take the turn or preparing to shoot from mid-range. I’m intrigued to see how the middle game develops and how he handles more teams looking to put pressure on him.
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8. Ryan Kalkbrenner, Hornets
As of this writing, Kalkbrenner is the only player in the NBA to have four or more blocks and four or more steals in a single game. His defense continues to stand out, as he showcases a mix of communication and rim protection on a nightly basis.
Kalkbrenner also found his way as a screener, making sure to make contact and drive to the rim. Even though he’s not the fastest roller, he knows how to put himself in position to get lobs or passes around the dunker spot. If he can continue to improve on both ends, the Hornets can’t help but be happy with their young core.
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9. Ace Bailey, Jazz
Since entering the starting lineup, Bailey is shooting 52.6% from the field, 40.3% from 3 and showing the scoring ability that many believed he would have this season. The movement of the Jazz offense allows Bailey to score in a more structured way. Wide claws give him easy access to his jump shot.
Instead of the dribbling many imagine, there is a mix of passing and cutting actions to get it down. Others’ drive-and-kicks also open up cleaner 3-point looks. The more he can be involved in these types of quick actions, the better Utah and Bailey’s overall growth will be.
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10. Ryan Nembhard, Mavericks
Nembhard is the first undrafted rookie in NBA history to score 25 points and make 10 or more assists without a turnover. He is the first undrafted rookie with consecutive games of 15+ points and 10 assists. And his presence helped steady the Mavericks’ ship.
The rookie point guard consistently gets the ball where it needs to be, lets the play come to him and doesn’t force plays. He probes the defense while changing speeds, but his vision of the floor is what opens things up. If you show help, the ball goes to the open man.
Don’t let the play fool you, either. The goal-scoring mindset is there, and he found a comfortable shot against abandoned defenses early on. If you don’t believe me, check out the film putting him side by side with Andrew Nembhard Buckets. It’s strange and you won’t be able to ignore it.
