The perfect timing of the start of the holiday season, the turn of the new year, and the fast track to the All-Star break is one of my favorite parts of the NBA regular season. It’s a stretch that truly tests a team’s identity. The league knows who it is and it needs to find ways to produce consistently.
For rookies, this time of year you start to feel the impact of what they bring to their team every night. And you start to see what happens to their teams when they’re not able to achieve the same level of production. That wall of recruits also lurks around the corner, the schedule preparing to knock on your door on any given evening.
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As much as it’s about making adjustments to recruits, it’s about trusting the skills that got them into their role in the first place. Let’s take a look at how the top rookies performed at the start of the new year.
1. Cooper Flagg, Mavericks
Flagg leads the Mavericks in total points, rebounds, assists and steals, and he is the only rookie to rank in the top 3 in those same categories. His game continues to grow, but what stands out most is his continued confidence in his ability to attack night after night.
With every dribble or hesitation, Flagg shows a better idea of how to get to his spots. It’s not just the vision to read space defenses that gives him, it’s the confidence to set them up for either a pull or a drive. A dribble handoff can result in a catch, hold, quick look and attack while the defense is off-balance. The league has yet to catch up to the strength of his left drive, and he excels in high pick-and-rolls. There’s a reason the Mavs gave up the drive.
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2. Kon Knueppel, Hornets
As of this writing, only three NBA players have made 130 or more 3s so far. Donovan Mitchell (133), Stephen Curry (132) and Knueppel (130). Speaking of Curry, Knueppel already broke Curry’s rookie record for most games with 20+ points on 50/40/90 shooting splits (12).
Make no mistake, these 3 are not all of the catch-and-shoot variety. Knueppel understands how to create space for himself, will take advantage of a fake shot to step sideways, or can simply stop regardless of what the defense does. Add to that his constant drive to drive and it begins to make sense of how he keeps defenses off-balance – and why he put together such a strong rookie campaign.
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3. VJ Edgecombe, 76ers
Impact is not always appreciated when it comes to rookie campaigns. Despite the ups and downs, there is no doubt that Edgecombe has helped the Sixers this season. His production has been key as the team has dealt with injuries, and we’ve gotten to a point where the Sixers aren’t just dancing with a playoff spot, but are doing so because of what Edgecombe provides every night.
Philadelphia is 8-2 this season when Edgecombe scores 20 or more points and 7-1 when Edgecombe and Tyrese Maxey score 20 or more. His return as a shooter helped, but he also showed increased comfort and connection with Joel Embiid and Paul George as they returned to form. Keep an eye on Edgecombe’s growth in pick-and-rolls with Embiid and how the Sixers will use him as a screen for Maxey to open up even more space to attack.
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4. Cedric Coward, Grizzlies
Sometimes in life it’s about finding a way to contribute and be effective even when you’re not at your full best. 3-point shooting declined once again, going from 30.7% in November (23 out of 75) to 27.7% in December (13 out of 47). Would you believe me if I told you he shot 50.8% from the field, even with that 3-point shot? (Spoiler alert: he did.)
His adjustment was attacking in transition, finding space when spaced out on the perimeter, and driving the basketball in the half court. The result was shooting 70 percent from within eight feet (42 of 60). As much as you’d like to see the complete package, problem-solving and self-awareness generally help young players in the long run.
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5. Derik Queen, Pelicans
The passing of Queen, who leads all rookies with 153 assists, continues to set the stage for his strong campaign. He’s been a bright spot for the Pelicans as they navigate this season. But what always strikes me is Queen’s driving ability.
The Pelicans mixed in more reverse pick-and-rolls, having a guard screen for Queen when he brings the ball up. It’s not so much the speed you feel in his workouts, but the know-how: the ball handling to navigate tight spaces, the ability to take up space if there’s a gap, the nifty, nimble footwork that serves as a prelude to a shoulder to your chest or a spinning move to knock you off balance. Defensively, his first effort tends to be okay, but it’s the second effort that leaves a zone of opportunity.
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6. Dylan Harper, Spurs
Harper’s impulses remain a constant; according to NBA tracking data, he completed as many as 10.5 drives per game in the month of December while manning the Spurs’ three-guard offense. Manufacturing around Those drives are what took a hit as 40 of his 58 field goals in December came in the restricted area, while he shot 18 of 73 from all other areas.
The mentality, mindset and skills remain the same, so it could be about having to see the ball go through the basket. You want to avoid a world where defenses help you when you’re spaced out, challenging you to shoot and stay home while on the move.
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7. Jeremiah fears, pelicans
The hallmark of Fears’ rookie campaign was a (somewhat) surprising run of consistency, but a 21-game streak with 10-plus points turned into single-digit scoring in seven of his last 15 games. This is nothing new for a rookie as teams work to adjust, but it can look different visually when the score is what brings you to the dance.
The lack of fear hasn’t changed, but teams have been more willing to rely on size and length against him; mix unders and switches in pick-and-roll to disrupt his rhythm; show assistance in removing traffic lanes; and work to challenge. The fear shots were not there to calm things down. The upside to the confidence Fears plays with is that it’s safe to assume the microwave will heat up.
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8. Egor Dёmin, Nets
Dёmin has the second-most 3-pointers (72) by a rookie this season, and the most through 30 games in Nets franchise history. He’s shooting 41.1 percent from 3 over his last 15 games and has made three or more 3s in five of his last seven games. This added more confidence to his offensive attack. Teams will always look to pressure him and be physical, but there isn’t much hesitation in letting him fly when given space.
His assist volume hasn’t been high, but the placement and timing of his passing ability showed up on film. The work to improve as a weakside defender in the context of Brooklyn also stood out to me.
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9. Maxime Raynaud, Kings
In the month of December, Raynaud averaged 15.5 points (fourth best among rookies), made 80 field goals (tied for second) and averaged 9.3 rebounds per game (first among rookies) with three offensive rebounds per game (first among rookies).
He does a good job working around the dunker point, trying to sneak into open areas when defenders help him but, more importantly, putting him in a great position to attack the glass. He’s at his best in the pick-and-roll when he’s working to set up, make solid contact, and stay in the ball carrier’s vision for a pocket pass.
10. Caleb Love, TrailBlazers
Love’s shooting has improved during this stretch of basketball. The Blazers guard has knocked down two 3-pointers or more in nine straight games and three 3-pointers or more in six of his last nine games. But most important for Portland was his impact on both ends of the court.
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Love provides energy and effort, always ready to pressure the ball all over the court and ready to fly defensively. There’s also composure and composure in the way he works to change speeds with the ball in his hands. The Blazers are 9-4 when Love plays more than 25 minutes this season.
Honorable mentions: Ryan Kalkbrenner, Hornets; Tre Johnson, Wizards; Collin Murray-Boyles, Raptors ; Ryan Nembhard, Mavericks; Hugo Gonzalez, Celtics
