Earlier in the year, 6-foot-6 goalkeeper Nikola Topic was loaned to Serbian talent factory Mega Basket, which helped land Nikola Jokic, Nikola Jovic, Goga Bitadze, Vlatko Cancar, Ivica Zubac and Vasilije Micic in the Association – as well as several other players whose rights belong to NBA franchises. With Mega, Topic averaged 18.6 points, 6.2 assists and 3.7 rebounds per game in 13 Liga ABA games. This stint helped Topic win the ABA League’s top prospect award. However, Topic still felt he had more to prove, so he returned to KK Crvena Zvezda, where he was before going to Mega Basket, to make a name for himself in the Euroleague.
Topic’s decision was admirable, but he struggled to acclimate to this new situation. And a knee injury – which has since been tweaked – derailed his season. But Topic is still a top-five prospect in the 2024 NBA Draft, and he might possess the most upside of any on-ball initiator in this class.
When diving into what makes Topic special, you should really skip his time with Crvena Zvezda. This tape will tell the story of a player who lacks burst, especially in the matches played since his return in April. He noticeably lacks the first-step explosion he showed in the first half of the season. But that should come back as he gets further and further away from injuries, which will happen as the draft approaches. He will have time to rest and focus specifically on getting his body back into shape.
During his time with Mega, Topic proved that he was able to beat defenders on the dribble quite easily. That’s why it’s easy to ignore the second half of the 2023-24 season. Topic is a jerk mover, and the stop-and-start nature of his driving makes him a really difficult cover. He is able to advance quickly and pass his defender, which is why his hesitation moves are so dangerous. Of course, Serbian athletes are not the ones he will see in the NBA. But there will also be better spacing for him in the pros. So he should be able to continue to do a good job of holding his own with his man. Topic is also a big and strong guy, so he is also able to move defenders from their location when he attacks. And the beauty of it all is that Topic is a tremendous finisher to the basket.
Aside from being a great finisher, Topic is also a fantastic playmaker. His assist numbers with Mega back that up, and that’s something NBA teams should be very excited about. Topic is good at finding shooters on a live dribble, and he can make every pass in the book. The 18-year-old is particularly gifted in a pick-and-roll environment. Whether it’s throwing lobs, making pocket passes, or manipulating the defense and going in a different direction with the play, Topic is quite special as a pick-and-roll decision-maker. And his size adds to that, because he can see things that other ball handlers just can’t.
The swing skill for Topic will be the jump shot. People worry about his defense, and there’s a real possibility he’ll never be positive on that end of the floor. But at the very least, the size of the subject will have an impact on that end of the field. And the reality is that defense won’t matter much if Topic lives up to his offensive potential. This is why shooting is going to be crucial at the next level.
Right now, Topic really likes to get to his mid-range jumper. And even if he doesn’t hit as often as you’d like, his willingness to always take that shot is a good thing. Topic also allows all three to steal when defenses collapse on screens. With that in mind, he’s not a player who turns down shots. He just needs to be a little more consistent from deep, and he probably needs to increase his release a little. Topic is currently sporting a very weak release and he doesn’t get much arc on his shot. But these things are both fixable, especially for a player with good feel and backspin as a shooter.
This is not a player with a broken jumper. In fact, Topic shot 36.9% from three in 2022-23, and that number dropped to 30.6% thanks to increased volume this season. But Topic is running in the 80s from the line. When you combine that with his contact with floaters, there’s no reason not to buy him into becoming a good shooter. Shooting will also be a big focus for Topic this offseason, and that kind of goes hand in hand with him having the right knee. There will be a lot of empty weight rooms and gym sessions in Topic’s future. So don’t be surprised if the shot looks much better the next time you see it in a match.
If Topic becomes an average shooter, especially off the rebound, he can be the type of player a team builds an entire offense around. There are many differences in how the two play, but Topic could be worthy of the type of role Tyrese Haliburton plays with the Indiana Pacers. Topic doesn’t have the jumper right now, and the passing flair isn’t there either. But as long as he can make defenses pay for letting him shoot, the ball should be thrown to Topic in an offense heavy on high screens and pick-and-roll actions. And while players like Alexandre Sarr and Zaccharie Risacher are generating buzz as the likely first and second picks in the 2024 NBA Draft, it’s Topic who has the potential to drive front offices crazy in the future. His potential is absolutely massive and teams passing on him could end up taking it upon themselves.
