Who will win the NASCAR race this weekend? As we do every week throughout the Cup Series season, we preview and project what we think will happen on the track. This involves looking at the odds set for each driver and offering an analysis of the picks we like for Sunday.
Let’s dive into the preliminary NASCAR odds for Circuit of the Americas this week. The chances are via DraftKings and determined ahead of Saturday’s Cup Series qualifying. Further down, we made four picks that we like based on the odds and our projections of the race outcome.
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Related: NASCAR Predictions for Circuit of the Americas
NASCAR odds this week: Circuit of the Americas
|
Driver |
Race winner |
Top 3 finish |
|---|---|---|
|
Shane van Gisbergen |
+120 |
-250 |
|
Connor Zilisch |
+350 |
+110 |
|
Christopher Bell |
+900 |
+265 |
|
William Byron |
+1000 |
+300 |
|
Tyler Reddick |
+1600 |
+450 |
|
Kyle Larson |
+1600 |
+450 |
|
Chase Briscoe |
+2000 |
+550 |
|
Chase Elliott |
+2200 |
+600 |
|
Chris Buescher |
+2500 |
+700 |
|
Ross Chastain |
+2800 |
+800 |
|
Kyle Busch |
+2800 |
+800 |
|
AJ Allmendinger |
+3000 |
+850 |
|
Ty Gibbs |
+3500 |
+1000 |
|
Michael McDowell |
+3500 |
+1000 |
|
Alex Bowman |
+4500 |
+1200 |
|
Ryan Blaney |
+4500 |
+1200 |
|
Joey Logano |
+6000 |
+1700 |
|
Denis Hamlin |
+6000 |
+1700 |
|
Daniel Suarez |
+6500 |
+1800 |
|
Austin Cindric |
+8000 |
+2200 |
|
Ryan Preece |
+9000 |
+2500 |
|
Carson Hocevar |
+10000 |
+2800 |
|
Bubba Wallace |
+10000 |
+2800 |
|
Noah Gragson |
+20000 |
+5500 |
|
Todd Gilliland |
+30000 |
+8000 |
|
John Hunter Nemechek |
+30000 |
+8000 |
|
Cole Custer |
+30000 |
+8000 |
|
Brad Keselowski |
+30000 |
+8000 |
|
Austin Dillon |
+30000 |
+8000 |
|
Zane Smith |
+30000 |
+8000 |
|
Jesse Love |
+40000 |
+11000 |
|
Erik Jones |
+40000 |
+11000 |
|
Ty Dillon |
+50000 |
+13000 |
|
Riley Herbst |
+50000 |
+13000 |
|
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. |
+50000 |
+13000 |
|
Josh Berry |
+50000 |
+13000 |
|
Cody Ware |
+50000 |
+13000 |
NASCAR Picks
Alex Bowman – Top 10 (+145)
It’s been a rough start to the season for Alex Bowman, but this seems like the perfect opportunity for him to bounce back. In the last three races at COTA, Bowman has finished no worse than ninth and he has two top-five finishes. The No. 48 is not a realistic option to win in Austin – 0 laps led in the last five races at COTA – but the fact that he finished in the top 10 every time he drove here with Hendrick bodes well for another great result.
Related: List of NASCAR Cup Series entries for Circuit of the Americas
Chris Buescher – Top 10 (+120)
Chris Buescher has been incredible on road courses since the 2022 season, averaging an 8.5 finishing position in his last 22 road and street course races. This figure is even higher (7.2) if you exclude the Chicago Street Race and Mexico. He also has three top-10 finishes in five career Cup Series races at COTA. We predict Buescher will have four consecutive top-10 finishes at COTA.
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Related: NASCAR weekend schedule for COTA
Tyler Reddick – Top 5 (+210)
Given his history at COTA, Tyler Reddick’s even-so-slim chances of recording a top-five finish seem like a gift. Since joining 23XI Racing, Reddick has never finished worse than fifth at this track and he also has the highest average starting position (2.0) in the entire Cup Series. We don’t think the No. 45 car will make it three wins in a row on Sunday, but we’re confident in picking it for a top-five finish.
Related: NASCAR drivers face the greatest pressure to perform at COTA
William Byron – Race winner (+1000)
Shane van Gisbergen (+120) is the favorite to win the first road race of the 2026 season and for good reason. However, we choose William Byron to emerge victorious given the odds listed (fourth highest). He is already a two-time winner at COTA and finished second last year, behind Christopher Bell, just before the hat-trick. Hendrick Motorsports didn’t win a race this year and the No. 24 car had some bad luck. We believe fortunes were reversed on Sunday, with Byron winning the DuraMAX Grand Prix.
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