In an article published yesterday, Jon Heyman of the New York Post weighed on what he thinks is the likelihood of certain superstars being traded this winter. Heyman has Pete Alonso of the New York Mets at just 5%, which is interesting considering Alonso just hired Scott Boras as his agent, meaning he could be ready to head to free agency next year. next winter, as many Boras customers do.
It’s easy for me to disagree, given that if Alonso isn’t extended, it makes more sense to move on, given the Mets’ lackluster farm and the value Alonso holds for his last year. However, Tyler Glasnow (70% chance) and Juan Soto (65% chance) are two other names worth discussing on this list.
Glasgow, for apparent reasons, will most likely be moved. Earning $25 million in the final year of his contract with the Tampa Bay Rays, the small-market Rays will likely move Glasnow in order to reduce payroll. However, I think the Cubs need to stay away here, as Glasnow’s injury issues aren’t even “concerning” but a giant red flag. You’re lucky to get over 120 innings with him.
The biggest revelation from Heyman’s article is that he thinks Juan Soto is most likely on the move. Is this the move where the Cubs need to go all-in? They have the farm and “have” the money to trade it and expand it. However, an extension is pure speculation. Like Alonso, the only concern is that he is a client of Boras, and I don’t foresee Soto signing an extension. Let’s not forget, this is the same guy who turned down $440 million from the Washington Nationals last year. With another good year in 2023, at age 26, the contract he receives through 2025 will most likely be a record for a position player.
Offensively, Soto has proven to be a generational talent. In 2023 he slashed .275/.410/.519, hit 35 HR, drove in 109, and this also marked his 5th season in which he recorded an OPS north of .900. He earned three All-Star nominations and three Silver Sluggers.
Defensively, where the Cubs might falter is that Soto’s defense in the outfield is mediocre at best; he recorded -9 putouts above average and -8 runs prevented this year. If the Cubs land him via trade, they are essentially trading for a DH only, given that he won’t often see time in the field with Ian Happ and Seiya Suzuki, both of whom are significantly better defensively. While his offensive capabilities are a true juggernaut, it’s hard to see Jed Hoyer recovering defensively given his recent emphasis on elite defense.
Still, the Cubs had 2024 on their radar, a year they believe they will be ready for serious competition. If the team wants to win in 2024, the last thing they should worry about is defending left field at regular intervals. If there’s a chance Soto could be traded, the Cubs need to do it and not look back, even if it’s only for 2024. Soto’s bat in the lineup is the piece they’re missing offensively, especially if Cody Bellinger doesn’t. returning to the Cubs in free agency.
