2024 season: Eliminated on September 27 4th in AL Central
Let’s take a look at the Minnesota Twins’ 2024 season, questions the team needs to address this winter, and early prospects for 2025.
Learn more: MLB 2024 offseason previews: What’s next for the White Sox, A’s, Cubs and more?
Things that went well
The Twins remained in the playoff race until the final weekend of the season thanks to a team effort. This was a club that posted a winning record despite the fact that no position player recorded an OPS of .800 in at least 110 games and no pitcher recorded an ERA below 3.50 over more than 100 rounds. On the contrary, several Twins made useful contributions.
No one on the Twins roster will finish the season with more than 25 home runs, 75 RBIs or 20 stolen bases, but Matt Wallner, Carlos Correa and Byron Buxton have been the top offensive contributors and should each finish with a game-high OPS. superior. 800 or low .900. Four other Twins – Jose Miranda, Trevor Larnach, Ryan Jeffers and Carlos Santana – would finish with an OPS in the mid-.700s while playing in more than 110 games.
Meanwhile, the pitching staff consisted of Pablo López, Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober, and Simeon Woods Richardson, all of whom recorded an ERA below 4.20 over at least 130 innings. Additionally, Griffin Jax has become the team’s most reliable reliever, producing impressive ratios while ranking second on the club in saves and leading the team in appearances and catches.
Things that went wrong
Minnesota stayed in the playoff race mainly because its disappointments were all relatively minor. Royce Lewis continued to struggle to stay healthy, as he was able to play in about half of the team’s games. The 25-year-old was a solid offensive player, but not as effective as he was in 58 games the year before (.921 OPS). Edouard Julien was a bigger disappointment. After producing an .839 OPS over 109 games in 2023, Julien struggled offensively to the point where he spent about two months of the summer in the minors.
Minnesota is far from the only team that had difficulty finding a fifth starterbut it was certainly an area of disappointment this year. Louie Varland and Chris Paddack both had disappointing seasons after opening 2024 in the rotation. Youngsters David Festa and Zebby Matthews tried their best to make an impact late in the season, but didn’t have much success. The lack of rotation depth was especially notable when the team was without Ryan throughout the section.
But overall, everything was going pretty well in Minnesota until the final weeks of the season. On September 5, the Twins were 74-62 with a 95.4% chance of qualifying for the playoffsaccording to FanGraphs. Then the Twins were swept in a pivotal series with the Royals, which started a stretch in which Minnesota went 6-14 from September 6-27. The Twins won only one of six series during this span and fell to 82-78 with their loss to the Orioles on September 27, which eliminated them from the playoffs. During this dismal stretch, Lewis, Miranda, Jeffers and Julien all posted an OPS below .500, and Lopez, Festa and Woods Richardson each recorded an ERA above 4.50 while making at least three starts.
Off-season plans
Most of the Twins’ roster remains under team control for 2025 and beyond, but the infield might be the least stable part of the team. Jeffers is locked in behind the plate, Correa will play shortstop and Lewis can handle the hot corner. Julien and former top prospect Brooks Lee are options to play second base, and Lee could also be an excellent utility man. First base is the only vacant spot, with Santana heading to free agency at age 38. Alex Kirilloff is a possible replacement, but he has faces injuries throughout his career and posted a modest .653 OPS in 57 games this year.
The outfield is anchored by Buxton in center and provides excellent options against right-handed pitchers in Wallner and Larnach. Manuel Margot fits well as a right-handed hitter who can start against lefties, but he is unlikely to pick up his $12 million option for 2025. The team will likely lose Max Kepler to free agency, but he’s not a good fit as another left-handed hitter alongside Wallner and Larnach. There are also some elite prospects in the field (more on that later).
The rotation is in good shape, as the Big Four of López, Ober, Ryan and Woods Richardson are all set to return. Festa, Matthews and Varland can compete for last place. The team’s key relievers – Jax, Jhoan Duran, Cole Sands and Jorge Alcala – will also return. The primary lefty on the relief corps, Caleb Thielbar, is headed to free agency and will need to be replaced.
Minnesota could use a superstar in the middle of its lineup, but those players are expensive and risky on the free agent market. For example, Pete Alonso would be a splashy signing at first base, but might not fit a blueprint for stable, lasting success. Still, the Twins added Correa to a massive $200 million free agent contract two years ago and might be ready to make another bold move.
Perspectives on the horizon
Minnesota’s farm system has seen a quantum leap this season and ranked second in baseball by August, according to MLB Pipeline.
Emmanuel Rodriguez might be the member of the group that best combines elite talent and MLB readiness. The 21-year-old moved up four minor league levels this year, finishing the campaign at Triple-A and showing incredible plate discipline along the way. He profiles as a true five-tool player who could join the Twins outfield in early 2025.
The organization has two other elite player prospects who could reach the majors in late 2025. Walker Jenkins, the fifth overall pick in the 2023 MLB Draftis 19 years old and has already reached Double-A. He is considered by some publications to be a top-five prospect in baseball and will eventually patrol Minnesota’s outfield alongside Rodriguez. Luke Keaschall is another Minnesota prospect who possesses an exciting blend of power, speed and on-base skills. He primarily played second base in college, but also gained experience at first base and center in the minors.
The ceilings aren’t as high for the Twins’ pitching prospects, but there are two starters in the minors who should contribute next season. Andrew Morris had a tremendous 2024 (2.37 ERA, 133:32 K:BB) in which he rose all the way to Triple-A. He is expected to debut with the Twins in early 2025. Marco Raya has a similarly high ceiling but has been less consistent this year and will likely spend the first half of 2025 working on his control in the minors.
Subscribe to Baseball-B-Cast Bar on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, YouTube Or wherever you listen.
Objectives for 2025
The Twins are certainly not a dynasty, but they have had a solid run of success, with four playoff appearances in the last eight seasons. Still, this year’s team’s inability to pick up key wins in September or comeback in October, especially after being well-positioned to do so, will be a topic of discussion throughout the offseason.
The organization could make minimal changes this winter and still have a good chance of winning the AL Central in 2025. But unless they make at least one notable move, the Twins will likely continue to lag behind the powerhouses of the American League. The front office will have to decide if being good is enough, instead of really trying to reach the World Series.
2024 MLB Postseason Tracker: Track the Postseason Picture
Fantastic focus
Fantasy managers will initially target Twins starting pitchers on draft day. Ryan, Ober and López will all be coveted as No. 2 starters in the mixed league, with Ryan and López having the potential to be considered fantasy aces by some managers. Assuming he stays in the closer role, Duran will also be a valuable player in the 2025 draft.
Minnesota’s best hitters are mid-round picks, including Correa, Wallner and Buxton. Lewis is the only position player on the Twins who could move into the early rounds, as managers dream of his potential to stay healthy and post game-changing numbers throughout a full season.
