Believe it or not, Selection Sunday is less than a month away. The Michigan Wolverines are in great shape after a 91-80 drubbing of Purdue on Tuesday, and all signs point to the Wolverines receiving a 1 seed in Selection Sunday. However, everyone knows that being a 1 seed doesn’t guarantee you anything in the NCAA tournament.
With that in mind, we wanted to explore which teams the Wolverines do and don’t match up well among the top four seed lines. There’s no doubt that Michigan will be a prohibitive favorite in each of the first two rounds, but the Sweet Sixteen is where things start to get interesting. This will be a first guide to which teams Michigan fans should want to see in their area and which teams they shouldn’t want to see at all.
Advertisement
Michigan teams fit well with
Florida Alligators
The Gators have been in great form lately, winning six straight games and climbing to No. 6 in the KenPom rankings. SupportMatrix now has them as the 3rd seed with plenty of time to climb higher. Although they have enough size to rival Michigan with 6-foot-11 Alex Condon, 6-foot-10 Rueben Chinyelu and 6-foot-9 Thomas Haugh, the Gators are one of the worst three-point shooting teams in the country at 29.4 percent. Chinyelu doesn’t shoot threes, while Condon shoots a decent number but is only 13 percent on the season. A matchup with Florida would allow Aday Mara to stay on the floor for the majority of the game and clog the paint mercilessly.
Michigan State Spartans
I like being able to put the Spartans in this category, but we’ve already seen this play out once this season. Sixty percent of their starting five can’t shoot the three ball well with Jeremy Fears, Coen Carr and Carson Cooper. The key to beating Michigan is having big players who can shoot and stretch the floor; Michigan State is pretty much the opposite. The Spartan offense is designed to get to the edge at all costs. The Wolverine Defense is specifically designed to stop this.
Advertisement
Vanderbilt Commodores
BracketMatrix currently has the Commodores as the No. 2 seed among the 4 seeds, but they have benefited from a relatively weak schedule. Vanderbilt hasn’t beaten anyone in KenPom’s top 25 and simply doesn’t have the size to compete with Michigan. Jalen Washington (6-foot-10) is the only player in the rotation taller than 6-foot-7, meaning Mara will have at least a five-inch advantage over every opponent. Tyler Tanner and Duke Miles have been fun to watch, but this doesn’t look like a team that can take down the Wolverines.
Who Michigan Doesn’t Match Well With
Cyclones in the State of Iowa
The keys to beating Michigan, in my opinion, are shooting the lights out from three and speeding up the Wolverines to force turnovers. Check and verify this Iowa State team.
Advertisement
The Cyclones are shooting 39.8% from deep, good for fourth in the country and by far the highest of the major contenders. When it comes to turnovers, Iowa State has a defensive turnover percentage of 22 percent, ranking eighth in the nation, according to KenPom. While Iowa State is certainly beatable, this is a team Michigan would want to avoid.
Illinois battles the Illini
We’ll see how this plays out next week, as the Illini host Michigan in what could be a deciding game for the conference championship. However, this is not a team the Wolverines want to see. Illinois has the size to rival Michigan with 7-foot-2 Zvonimir Ivisic, 7-foot-1 Tomislav Ivisic and 6-foot-9 David Mirkovic – they lead the nation in average height. On top of that, seven of Illinois’ eight players in their rotation have made 25 or more three-pointers this season. Freshman Keaton Wagler is firing on all cylinders. With any luck, this is an Illinois team that could definitely win it all.
Houston Cougars
If you know anything about Kelvin Sampson, you know that his teams play energetic, furious defense at the point of attack. It’s no different this year, as the Cougars have the No. 7 defense on KenPom and are ninth in the nation in generating turnovers. Joseph Tugler, Kingston Flemings and Emanuel Sharp all rank highly in steals, and the team is first in the nation in turnover percentage. Finally, 6-foot-10 freshman Chris Cenac gives them a legitimate big man who can stretch Mara a bit — he shoots 35.8 percent from three. Although Houston is likely in a different region than Michigan, this is a team that would pose some problems.
