March Madness bubble watch one day before bracket unveiling

We are one day away from 2026 NCAA Tournament being revealedand there is still uncertainty regarding the bubble.

Conference tournament week is the last chance for teams to prove they belong in March Madness, and for the most part, teams haven’t taken advantage of those opportunities. But everything changed when Miami (Ohio) suffers its first defeat of the season it will therefore not be subject to an automatic auction. The bubble picture now has a new member, making the race for the final bracket spots much more complicated.

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Most teams are done and will have to wait for the bracket announcement, but a few are still playing and looking to strengthen their position – and possibly get automatic spots to make it an even wilder ride. Here’s a look at the March Madness bubble in the latest USA TODAY Sports Bracketology.

March Madness Auto Bidding: Who is in the NCAA tournament bracket?

Texas

• Quality wins: in Alabama, against Vanderbilt

• Bad losses: vs. Arizona State (neutral), Mississippi State, vs. Mississippi (neutral)

You never want to go into Selection Sunday on a losing streak, and Texas is learning just how uncomfortable that can make it. Losing the final two games of the regular season wasn’t the worst thing in the world, but falling to conference cellar dweller Mississippi in your first conference tournament game is. Texas has the best chance of making it out of the rest of the bubble, but that doesn’t mean it will avoid playing in the top four.

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Saint Clare

• Projected seed: No. 11 (top four)

• Quality wins: against Saint Mary’s (twice)

• Bad losses: vs. Loyola Chicago (neutral), vs. Arizona State (neutral)

The West Coast Conference looks like a three-bid league thanks to Santa Clara doing all it can without winning the tournament title. The Broncos needed to go into the championship game to feel confident and they did so with a second win against Saint Mary’s. Santa Clara had a chance to beat Gonzaga, but it was an impressive performance that put it in a comfortable position as most of the conference tournaments got underway.

VCU

• Projected seed: No. 11 (top four)

• Quality wins: vs. South Florida (neutral)

• Bad losses: at George Mason

A team with a chance to topple the bubble, VCU is still looking for an automatic bid by advancing to the Atlantic 10 semifinal. Given that the resume doesn’t feature any real strong wins, the Rams are far from done and will at least want to make the conference title game to put themselves in a less dangerous position. Many teams will be listening to this team.

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EMS

• Projected seed: No. 11 (top four)

• Quality wins: vs. North Carolina, vs. Louisville

• Bad losses: vs. LSU (neutral), Cal, Syracuse, Florida State

Perhaps no team has made it out of the tournament like SMU. After looking safe all season, the Mustangs finished the regular season on a pretty ugly four-game losing streak. SMU needed a few wins in the ACC Tournament to erase that bad taste, but it only beat Syracuse before a dismal finish resulted in a loss to Louisville. He not only has 13 losses, but also some tough losses, which makes a Selection Sunday much more stressful than anyone thought a few weeks ago.

Miami Ohio

• Projected seed: No. 11 (top four)

• Bad losses: against Massachusetts (neutral)

Everything changed when Miami (Ohio) lost its first game. Not only was it a loss, but it came in the first game of the MAC tournament against eighth-ranked Massachusetts, barely qualifying as a Quad 3 loss. The record speaks for itself but the resume leaves a lot to be desired, especially since the NET rankings dropped 10 spots after the loss. There are many arguments for why this team should or should not be there and they are all valid. The entire bubble depends on whether the RedHawks succeed or not.

New Mexico

• Projected seed: First four eliminated

• Quality wins: at Virginia Commonwealth, against Santa Clara

• Bad losses: in New Mexico State, against Colorado State

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If you want to have a second chance in life, you better not waste it. New Mexico got another chance thanks to the hesitation of some other teams, but it needed to make some real noise in the Mountain West tournament to really take advantage. Unfortunately, the Lobos were unable to capitalize, losing to San Diego State on a last-second heartbreaking shot in the semifinals. That makes the path to a bid difficult, and New Mexico will back Utah State in the title game so the Aztecs don’t steal a bid.

Oklahoma

• Projected seed: First four eliminated

• Quality wins: in Vanderbilt, Texas

• Bad losses: vs. Arizona State (neutral), Mississippi State, South Carolina

When the bubble teams struggled, Oklahoma took the lead by winning the final four of the regular season. It carried its momentum into the SEC tournament with two major victories to advance to the quarterfinals, where it fell to Arkansas. While it was a valiant effort, a win was definitely needed to get back on the bubble, so it’s shaping up to be a tough Sunday for the Sooners.

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• Projected seed: First four eliminated

• Quality wins: vs. St John’s (neutral), vs. Arkansas, Florida

• Bad losses: against Mississippi, in the state of Mississippi

The most confusing recording of the conversation. Auburn only beat Mississippi State in the SEC tournament, unable to get another signature victory to make its case. The Tigers have some nice wins, but 16 losses would be a maximum for an overall team and that’s hard to justify, regardless of the schedule. This will be the team everyone will be wondering about coming out of support.

Indiana

• Projected seed: First four eliminated

• Quality wins: vs. Purdue, at UCLA, vs. Wisconsin

• Bad losses: at Minnesota, at USC, against Northwestern (twice)

After finishing the season with a 1-5 record in the final six games, the Hoosiers needed a strong performance in the Big Ten Tournament to make their case. Instead, they were one and done, suffering another agonizing loss to Northwestern. This will extend the tournament drought to three years.

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This article was originally published on USA TODAY: Watch the March Madness bubble one day before tournament bracket set