Almost all men’s college basketball has finished the regular season, and only conference tournaments await before March madness is fully underway.
Thirty-one automatic bids will be awarded over the next week via conference tournament winners. Another 37 at-large bids are up for grabs, although many teams are virtual locks for the NCAA Tournament Already.
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MANDATORY READING: March Madness Bubble Watch: Pressure builds in final week of regular season
Will there be bid stealers in 2026? Conference tournaments give bubble teams one last chance to bolster their resumes before sweating it out on Selection Sunday.
Here’s a look at the latest NCAA Tournament projections ahead of men’s college basketball conference tournament week:
Bubble Watch Tracker with March Madness Support
Based on matches through Saturday March 7
NCAA Tournament Locks
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ACC (6): Duke, Virginia, North Carolina, Louisville, Miami, Clemson
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Large 12 (6): Arizona, Iowa State, Houston, Kansas, Texas Tech, Brigham Young
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Big Ten (8): Michigan, Illinois, Purdue, Michigan State, Nebraska, Wisconsin, Iowa, UCLA
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SEC (7): Florida, Alabama, Vanderbilt, Tennessee, Arkansas, Kentucky, Georgia
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Great East (3): UConn, St. John’s, Villanova
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Other (3): Gonzaga, Sainte Marie, Saint Louis
Every team on the lock list has a 99.9 percent chance or better of reaching the NCAA Tournament, according to Torvik’s TourneyCast.
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Wisconsin moved into lockout territory after a strong February that saw the Badgers finish 4-3 with two top-10 wins over Illinois and Michigan State. Although Kentucky has lost four of its last six games, its ranked wins over Vanderbilt, Tennessee, Arkansas and St. John’s are enough for a bid.
Saint Mary’s will compete with Gonzaga for the WCC title, but beat the Bulldogs on Feb. 28 and is 27-4 this season. This CV alone is enough to lock in the tournament.
NCAA tournament likely
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SEC (3): Texas A&M, Texas, Missouri
By the end of the season, most teams are either NCAA tournament teams or bubble teams – hence the short list of teams considered “probable.” It would take a disaster for most, if not all, of these teams to fail to reach the men’s NCAA tournament in 2026. However, the risk of a collapse is always present.
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Each team listed as a probable program has a 70% or better chance of winning an at-large bid, by “TourneyCast.”
NCAA Tournament Bubble Teams
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ACC (4): Southern Methodist, Virginia Tech, California, Stanford, Southern California
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Big 12 (3): Cincinnati, Arizona State, West Virginia
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SEC (2): Auburn, Oklahoma
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Other (5): Miami (Ohio), San Diego State, Santa Clara, VCU, New Mexico
Miami (Ohio) still hasn’t lost this season, but will only feel comfortable heading into Selection Sunday if it wins the MAC tournament. The RedHawks rank 53rd in the standings NCAA Net Rankings and haven’t played any Quad 1 games, which will make it difficult to get an at-large bid if they lose the MAC tournament.
San Diego State, Santa Clara, VCU and New Mexico are in the same boat as non-Power conference teams. Santa Clara probably has the best chance of winning an at-large bid, although its chances of winning the COE are slim compared to Saint Mary’s and Gonzaga.
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Auburn has seen its odds plummet in recent weeks, losing eight of its last 10 games under first-year coach Steven Pearl. Since then, Oklahoma has seen its chances go from zero to slim as Auburn fell, with wins in five of its last seven games. The Sooners would have to make quite a run in the SEC Tournament to have an at-large chance.
The ACC tournament will also be interesting, as five teams fight for their lives on the bubble. Perhaps the teams that are most successful in the conference tournament will earn NCAA Tournament nods.
This article was originally published on USA TODAY: March Madness bracket tracking: Men’s NCAA Tournament locks, bubble teams
