Louisville Cardinals (14-6, 4-4) vs. SMU Mustangs (15-5, 4-3)
Playing time: 2:00 p.m.
Location: KFC Yum Center: Louisville, Kentucky.
Television: ESPN
Advertisers: Kevin Brown (play-by-play) and Debbie Antonelli (analysis)
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Favorite: Louisville by 8.5
Series: Louisville leads 9-2
Last meeting: Louisville won 98-73 on January 21, 2025 in Dallas
History of the series:
Projected starting lineups:
Louisville
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G Mikel Brown Jr. (6-5, 190, Fr.)
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G Isaac McKneely (6-4, 195, Sr.)
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G Ryan Conwell (6-4, 215, Sr.)
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F J’Vonne Hadley (6-7, 210, Sr.)
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C Sananda Fru (6-11, 245, Jr.)
EMS
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G Boopie Miller (6-0, 175, Sr.)
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G BJ Edwards (6-3, 200, Sr.)
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G Jaron Pierre Jr. (6-5, 210, Sr.)
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F Corey Washington (6-6, 190, Sr.)
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C Samet Yigitoglu (7-2, 270, therefore.)
Injury reports:
Statistics:
SMU season to date:
Relevant videos:
About SMU:
Just as it has been on the court, the SMU men’s basketball team has had no trouble adjusting to life in its new ACC home. The Mustangs won 24 games overall last season and 14 against ACC opponents, on pace to become one of the first teams left out of the 2025 NCAA Tournament.
They appear to have taken a step forward in their second year under head coach Andy Enfield (via Florida Gulf Coast and USC), and head into Saturday’s game at Louisville safely in the realm of most NCAA Tournament bracket projections. The Mustangs are 15-5 overall and 4-3 in ACC play, with their losses to Duke, Clemson and Virginia all by respectable margins.
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As was the case a year ago, SMU’s team strength lies in its electric offense, particularly in the backcourt. The Mustangs lead the ACC in scoring (87.3 points per game), assists (17.8 points per game) and also rank in the top three in fast break points.
(12.9, 2nd ACC, 83rd NCAA), completion percentage (49.4%, 3rd ACC, 26th NCAA) and free throw percentage
(76.9%, 3rd ACC, 32nd NCAA).
The senior goalkeeper leads the way for the Enfield team for a second consecutive year. Boopie Miller (19.4 points per game/6.7 per game). Miller was third team All-ACC last season after averaging 13.2 points (26th ACC), 5.5 assists (4th ACC, 33rd NCAA), 2.9 rebounds and 1.6 steals (9th ACC) with a 2.50 assist-to-turnover ratio (2nd ACC, 41st NCAA).
Standing just 6’0, Miller is a dynamo with the ball in his hands. He is a threat to score anywhere on the court and is also one of the best distributors in the ACC. He ranks in the top 20 in the ACC in steals per game (1.8), but he’s prone to getting caught in plays (see Chucky’s performance against him last season). Miller is a competent but outside shooter (37.4 percent), but the strength of his game breaks down and scores inside the arc or gets to the free throw line, where he shoots nearly 90 percent.
Miller needed help in the backcourt last season, so once the year ended, Enfield went out and got the transfer from Jacksonville State. Jaron-Pierreone of the most coveted guards of the portal. Pierre was the nation’s fourth-leading scorer a year ago and has had no trouble adjusting to the ACC level. He enters the weekend coming off a 28-point performance against Florida State and ranked 8th in the league in scoring at 17.5 points per game.
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Pierre is the perfect combo guard to play alongside Miller. He’s a good three-point shooter (35.7%), but his real strength lies in using his athleticism to take his man off the dribble and finish strong at the rim. Pierre wasn’t asked to be the playmaker he was at JSU, but he is a competent enough passer to be respected. He is also an excellent rebounder for his size. Like Miller, he is a much better offensive player than defensively. He can (and I suspect will) be attacked when Louisville has the ball.
Upper Guard BJ Edwards (14.2 ppg/5.2 apg) is easily playing the best basketball of his college career in his third and final season in Dallas. A career “perfectly decent” outside shooter, Edwards has made 9 of 16 three-point attempts over SMU’s last five games. Although his offensive numbers are all up, the strength of his game has always been his defense. One of the favorites to win ACC Defensive Player of the Year, Edwards currently leads the league in interceptions with 2.6 per game.
Samet Yigitoglua 7’2 center from Türkiye, significantly increased his production in his sophomore season. He averages nearly a double-double with 10.5 points and 8.1 rebounds per game, and is an effective rim protector averaging 1.6 blocks per game. Yigitoglu isn’t overly skilled or mobile, but…he’s 7’2, 270 and is skilled enough to make the required plays around the rim on both ends of the court.
While SMU shoots the ball well from three (36.6%), they are very selective with their outside shots. Where they really succeed is scoring in transition and attacking the basket in the half court. Louisville has really struggled to defend without fouling this season, and if that trend continues Saturday, they’ll have a hard time holding the Mustangs to a respectable point total.
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To summarize, SMU is an extremely talented offensive team with extremely talented guards that has struggled to defend against quality opponents this season, especially on the perimeter. One thing I really want to see Louisville do is not let any offensive success cause them to soften up their defense. This is 100 percent a team that will take full advantage if the Cardinals enter one of their long shooting slumps.
Notable:
—Louisville has won 32 straight games playing as an AP-ranked team against an unranked AP team at the KFC Yum Center.
—SMU has lost 14 of its last 15 games against AP-ranked opponents.
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—Louisville is 4-0 all-time in home games against SMU.
—Pat Kelsey and Andy Enfield recorded their 100th victory this season. Kelsey hit the target in Louisville’s 77-62 win over Boston College on January 10. Enfield achieved the feat after beating Florida State last Saturday 24th.
—Louisville is 0-9 under head coach Pat Kelsey when trailing by 5 or more points at halftime.
—SMU has scored at least 100 points nine times under head coach Andy Enfield, including four this season (plus 96 2x, 97 2x, a 98 and a 99). The five 100-point games in 2024-25 were the most since the 1992-93 season (6 times).
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—Louisville reached the 100-point mark five times in a season for the first time since 1976-77. The record for most 100-plus point games in a season at U of L is six.
—SMU has won each of its last six games playing with a rest advantage. The Mustangs haven’t played since last Saturday when Louisville played Monday night at Duke.
—Louisville has lost four of its last five games at the KFC Yum Center following an away defeat.
—SMU is 2-3 in true road games so far this season, including a 1-2 mark in ACC play.
—Louisville is 41-0 under head coach Pat Kelsey as they lead with five minutes remaining. The Cardinals are also 0-13 under Kelsey while trailing with five minutes remaining.
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—Louisville is 14-0 over the last 11 seasons when holding opponents to no more than one three-point field goal.
—Louisville is 121-0 all-time when scoring 100 or more points in non-overtime games.
—Louisville has won 167 consecutive games while holding an opponent by fewer than 50 points.
Ken Pomeroy prediction: Louisville 86, SMU 79
