Shock waves rippled through the baseball world Thursday night when star free agent Kyle Tucker signed with the Los Angeles Dodgers for a staggering four-year, $240 million contract.
The deal includes a $64 million signing bonus, opt-outs after the second and third seasons and $30 million in deferred money.
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Tucker now has the highest average annual average value of any player in major league history at $57.1 million, surpassing That of Juan Soto The $51 million mark was set last offseason.
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Besides the Dodgers, the Mets and Blue Jays were also both in pursuit of Tucker.
The Mets offered an equally massive four-year, $220 million contract with no deferred money and a whopping $75 million signing bonus. It was both a larger signing bonus and (obviously) less deferred money compared to the Dodgers’ winning bid.
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The exact parameters of the Blue Jays’ final offer to Tucker are unknown, but reports suggest they were more focused on a longer-term deal with less money per year. It’s clear that Tucker’s camp couldn’t turn down the AAV record he got with the opportunity to retest the free agent market in two years.
In the meantime, Tucker will partner with Shohei Ohtani, Bets on Mookie, Freddie FreemanAnd Will Smith in what is arguably the best lineup in baseball as the Dodgers seek their third straight World Series title.
What an embarrassment of riches. Tucker is now the eighth Dodger with a contract worth at least $100 million. The Phillies, Padres and Blue Jays come in second with six, while the Yankees and Giants have five each. Seven teams don’t have a single active player who crosses that threshold.
As funny as it sounds, Tucker will fill a huge hole in the Dodgers’ lineup.
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Although they scored the most runs per game in the National League last season, their outfield was not productive at the plate. Cumulatively, they had a .240 batting average, a .299 on-base percentage, and a .714 OPS. It was eerily similar to Lourdes Gurriel’s oblique line.
They also suffered from offensive problems during the postseason, scoring just 4.2 runs per game overall and 3.7 in the World Series. Even with a star lineup, their defense, their shots and ultimately Miguel Rojas saved them.
This will likely be less of an issue after Tucker is added. His .895 OPS over the last two seasons is sneakily exactly the same as Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and greater than That of Kyle Schwarberbut without the same fanfare.
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He has been one of the league’s most productive players since becoming a full-time player in 2021 with both 10th in fWAR and 10th in wRC+ over the last five years.
Few players make as good swing decisions as Tucker. He very rarely chases pitches out of the zone, comes up with good ones in the zone and has walked more than he has struck out over the last two years.
Clearly, he is one of the few best hitters in the game.
Still, two relatively random injuries that resulted in fractures — a foul ball to the shin in 2024 and a jammed right hand at second base last season — appeared to hurt Tucker’s value on the open market and his standing among certain fan groups.
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Additionally, he never achieved many of the key statistical criteria we look for when evaluating a star player.
Tucker never exceeded 30 home runs, a .300 batting average or five fWAR in a single season. On top of that, his bat speed is right in the middle of the pack and his batted ball data is pedestrian for someone who will make the most money in the sport this upcoming season.
Still, his production speaks for itself and those types of underlying concerns carry much less weight with signing a four-year deal compared to the 10 or 12 years many expected him to get at the start of this offseason.
Is this offer a bad value? Probably on a dollar per war basis. The Dodgers clearly don’t care and Tucker will likely be one of the most productive hitters in the game flanked by their All-Star roster. It also protects them against aging Freeman and Betts, who will no longer be elite players in the coming seasons. The rich really do get richer.
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Ranger Suarez to the Red Sox?
Now a little lost in the shuffle, starting pitcher Ranger Suarez signed a five-year, $130 million contract with the Red Sox on Wednesday afternoon.
This agreement was a surprise for several reasons.
First, the Red Sox hadn’t been linked to Suárez all offseason. Plus, it felt like no other team was either. Its market was completely silent to public knowledge until Boston entered it after failing Alex Bregman this weekend.
Next, the Red Sox weren’t exactly starved for rotation help. They exchanged for Sonny Gray earlier this offseason to support Garrett Hook at the top and Johan Oviedo a little later to bring depth to the back end.
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They still have Bryan Bello as type number four, veterans Patrick Sandoval And Kutter Crawford on the mend and super charged recruits Payton Tolle And Connelly early champing at the bit to get their shots. Plus, former top prospect Kyle Harrison ready behind the scenes. Again, starting to throw was more of a vanity than a real need.
Finally, Suárez was a strange free agent to project. He has been very effective throughout his career with a 2.91 overall ERA as a starter and is known as one of the game’s best command craftsmen. He is also considered a postseason player with a 1.48 ERA in 42 2/3 innings in the postseason.
On the other hand, he doesn’t do many of the things teams value most on the open market.
His strikeout rate of 21.9% over his last four seasons as a full-time starter is slightly below league average. Additionally, he never pitched more than 160 innings in a regular season. Most concerning is that his average fastball velocity has dropped more than two miles per hour over the past two seasons. It went from over 93 mph to just over 91 mph.
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Certainly, speed is a little less important for a pitcher like Suárez than for others.
He has a deep five-pitch mix that forces hitters to make uncomfortable decisions as he works them around the edges with remarkable consistency. Suárez also relies much more on a sinker than a four-seam fastball and the former relies much less on velocity to be effective.
Still, he’s getting dangerously close to a breaking point where he could be in a lot more trouble throwing those fastballs.
Suárez was one of 24 pitchers whose average fastball velocity was at or below 92 mph last season. The list includes some solid names like him, Shota Imanaga And Jacob Lopezbut it was more full of guys like Jose Quintana, Clayton Kershaw corpse, and Tyler Anderson.
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Even finding an extra tick could do wonders for Suárez as he heads toward the back half of this deal. Find out that fastballs are much more effective (relatively) once a left-handed pitcher can stretch above 92 mph.
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This probably won’t affect Suárez much in the short term, where he’s still among the top 40 most valuable pitchers in the league. Some fear could set in, however, if that velocity continues to drop on a deal that makes him the 12th most expensive pitcher in the league per year right now.
▶ No more quick hits on hot pans
◆ Logic would tell us that the Blue Jays will once again turn their attention to Bo Bichette after failing Kyle Tucker. The Phillies appear to be winning this race, however, as Toronto is reportedly happy with its current crop of infielders.
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◆ In addition Juan Sotothe only outfielders on the Mets’ current 40-man roster are Tyrone Taylor, Jared YoungAnd Nick Morabito. Yeah. In a perfect world, none of these three will start on Opening Day and the Mets probably wouldn’t want Taylor to break camp with the club.
Cody Bellinger is still on the market and involved in a standoff with the Yankees across town. Will a bidding war begin? Or could the Mets turn their attention to the trade market for someone like Lars Nootbaar Or Louis Robert with whom they have both been connected.
◆ Perhaps the least talked about but moderately interesting MLB transaction in some time, the Angels, Rays and Reds agreed to a three-team trade that sent Josh Lowe to the angels and Gavin Lux to Tampa Bay.
This trade was announced literally two minutes after Tucker’s contract and got completely lost in the hype, but it was a fun trade of major league players nonetheless.
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In 2023, Lowe has hit 20 home runs, stolen 35 bases and had an .835 OPS in 135 games. Since then, he has played in 214 games over two seasons with just a .670 OPS over that span.
Regular soft tissue injuries have slowed him down considerably and the Angels are betting that better health luck could unlock what was once sky-high potential. I would feel a lot better about this risk if a team other than the Angels took it.
Lux has established himself as a completely unspectacular producer who will put up a high on-base percentage (.339 over the last three seasons) but without any semblance of playmaking power (five homers in 140 games last season). He could fight his way to the top spot in Tampa Bay, but ahead of Junior Caminero, Jonathan Aranda and Yandy Díaz.
◆ Cubs president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer said Matt Shaw could find playing time in the outfield this season after the addition of Alex Bregman. This reaffirms the fact that Shaw will be viewed as a super-utility man in Chicago and it is mildly interesting that they will likely try to get him to bat any way possible.
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