Munetaka Murakami, Japan’s last great free agent, is headed to Chicago.
Yakult Swallows third baseman has reportedly agreed to a two-year, $34 million contract with the White Sox, according to Yuki Yamada of MLB.com And ESPN’s Jeff Passanin one of the biggest swings of the MLB offseason. At just 25 years old, Murakami possesses a level of youth and raw power rarely seen on the open market, but it also comes with major risks.
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Yahoo Sports ranked Murakami as the sixth best free agent this offseason.
The swallows posted Murakami on November 8opening a 45-day window in which he was free to negotiate with all 30 MLB teams. The Hirondelles will receive millions of dollars in exchange for their advertising fees.
Munetaka Murakami’s arrival in MLB was eagerly awaited
Murakami has been a name to know for years, starting with winning the Central League MVP in 2021 at age 21. This turned out to be just a warm-up act, as he put together one of the greatest seasons in NPB history in 2022.
During his age-22 season, Murakami broke the legendary Sadaharu Oh’s 58-year-old NPB record for most home runs by a Japanese player with 56 long balls while slashing .318/.458/.710. He also became the youngest Triple Crown winner in NPB history.
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After this season, Murakami signed a new contract with the Swallows which would have contained a clause requiring the team to post him after the 2025 season, the first offseason in which he would be eligible to sign a giant Yoshinobu Yamamoto-style contract (that’s what Roki Sasaki gave up when he came to MLB at age 23).
Murakami knew he wanted to go to MLB for a long time, and that feeling was clearly mutual heading into 2022. The World Baseball Classic was also very well timed to build hype, as American fans came to know him as the great Japanese bat to complete Japan’s elite rotation.
Since then, Murakami has remained productive, but isn’t close to replicating his 2022 season. He faced a few down years before returning in 2025 in an injury-limited season, hitting .286/.392/.659, with 24 home runs in 220 at-bats.
Munetaka Murakami Might Be MLB’s Riskiest Free Agent
Every major MLB contract carries some level of risk. This is how professional sports work: some deals work and some don’t. But it is very rare to see a delta of results as wide as Murakami’s in this price range.
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There is a conceivable world in which Murakami steps onto the field and immediately establishes himself as a third baseman with elite power and enough plate discipline to get on base regularly, at just 25 years old with plenty of prime ahead of him. This youth in particular is what has excited teams this offseason.
However, there is also a very possible world in which Murakami can’t handle third base, can’t catch up to MLB speed, and can’t hit MLB breaking balls. He’s not an MLB player.
These are all real concerns about Murakami, especially since his pious 2022 season. Here’s what Fangraphs has to say about his ability to put the bat on the ball:
His contact rate is increasing against fastballs 93 mph and above (just 63% since 2022) and, more recently, Murakami’s contact rates against secondary pitches have also dropped. In 2025, Murakami had just a 51% contact rate against all secondary pitch types combined, far lower than any consistent, impact hitter in the big leagues. Compare that to Murakami’s 2022-2023, when his contact rate was 62% – not great, but better than 2025 by a significant margin.
They later added that Murakami “is not a very rangy or very skilled defender, and his arm strength barely exceeds third place.” So a move to appears first in the cards, which would put even more pressure on his bat.
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It’s also not a list you’d call encouraging.
In short, Murakami made contact against Japanese pitchers at a rate that would be bad even if his numbers translated perfectly to MLB. He has struck out 28.6 percent of his plate appearances over the past three NPB seasons, which would rank ninth among qualified hitters this year. If he adds more whiffs — which seems likely when the majority of MLB pitchers are sitting at 93 mph or higher — we’re approaching late-stage Adam Dunn territory.
There are certainly MLB hitters who are carving out careers while hitting out a ton, and that’s the path Murakami will try to follow. All but one of the top five 2025 home run hitters posted a strikeout rate above 25%.
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He just has to crush the ball almost every time he touches it.
