What does a 12-3 start and 3-1 record in the Big Ten mean for Indiana’s prospects in March?
Roughly halfway through the 2024-25 season, IU basketball is squarely on the NCAA Tournament bubble according to bracketology’s most recognizable name.
ESPN’s Joe Lunardi posted a updated support projection Tuesday morning, and he includes the Hoosiers in his first four teams in the 2025 NCAA Tournament. And that indeed reflects progress. Before their win at Penn State on Sunday, the Hoosiers were in just one of 48 brackets on bracketology aggregator Bracket Matrix.
While their record looks like that of a tournament team, what’s holding the Hoosiers back right now?
The NCAA Evaluation Tool (NET) is one of the resources available to the committee in the selection, ranking and bracketing process. The NET has two elements: the Team Value Index, which is based on game results and takes into account the result, match location and outcome. The other component is net efficiency (offensive efficiency minus defensive efficiency), which is adjusted to take into account the strength of the opponent and the location of the match.
In English, it’s not just about whether you win or lose, it’s about how you win or lose compared to what was projected.
In the current NET, Indiana is ranked No. 56, and as the NET components suggest, that ranking is primarily a result of how IU has performed relative to expectations in its games. Losing by 28 points to NET No. 39 Louisville on a neutral court is probably the most damaging aspect of Indiana’s resume. But single-digit wins over No. 199 Winthrop and No. 202 Chattanooga don’t help either.
Indiana’s road win at No. 48 Penn State was a step in the right direction and his best win on his resume to this point. It qualifies as a Quad-1 victory according to the NET formula.
Through the quadrant system, the quality of wins and losses is organized based on game location and opponent’s NET rating.
- Quadrant 1: Home 1-30, Neutral 1-50, Away 1-75
- Quadrant 2: Home 31-75, Neutral 51-100, Away 76-135
- Quadrant 3: Home 76-160, Neutral 101-200, Away 135-240
- Quadrant 4: Home 161-353, Neutral 201-353, Away 241-353
The number of wins in Quadrant 1 and losses in Quadrant 3/4 is very important when it comes to NCAA tournament selection and seeding. Currently, IU is 1-3 in Quad-1 games and 10-0 in Quads 3 and 4. They moved up nine spots – from No. 65 to No. 56 in the NET after last week’s wins over Rutgers and Penn State.
So things can change quite quickly. And there will be plenty of opportunities to score more Quad-1 wins.
Here’s how Indiana’s remaining 16 regular season games would be counted in the Quads if played today. The schedule includes 11 consecutive Quad-1 competitions beginning Saturday in Iowa:
- vs. USC – Quad-3
- in Iowa – Quad-1
- vs. Illinois – Quad-1
- at Ohio State – Quad-1
- to the northwest – Quad-1
- vs. Maryland – Quad-1
- at Purdue – Quad-1
- in Wisconsin – Quad-1
- vs. Michigan – Quad-1
- at Michigan State – Quad-1
- vs. UCLA – Quad-1
- vs. Purdue – Quad-1
- vs. Penn State – Quad-2
- in Washington – Quad-2
- in Oregon – Quad-1
- vs. Ohio State – Quad-2
The Big Ten isn’t elite at the top, but as evidenced by this challenge, the league has plenty of depth. In total, Lunardi projects 11 Big Ten teams will currently participate in the tournament.
For Indiana, it all just means opportunity at the moment. If they can start picking up wins in Quad-1 and stay around .500 in that category, a lot of what we’ve seen so far will be alleviated and they’ll move out of the bubble.
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