The Baseball Hall of Fame has been a big topic over the past month and this has been the offseason of Shohei Ohtaniso why not combine the two materials?
We often discuss whether an active player is “already a Hall of Famer.” It’s a good sports talk topic on the radio or in a bar for people who just like to talk about sports. This is a topic that won’t be decided for years, so – at least in the present – it’s one of those questions with no wrong answer. Last week I ranked the 10 Closest Active Players to a Hall of Fame Resume. Again, it’s good radio and bar fodder, so why not continue with Ohtani?
Is Shohei Ohtani already a Hall of Famer? If not, what does he need to do for the rest of his career to become a Hall of Famer?
My first thought here is that he’s not yet worthy of induction, but he probably will be once he’s eligible.
On that last point, to appear on the BBWAA ballot (where players start), Ohtani must have logged 10 seasons in Major League Baseball. He is currently only six years old. Given his 10-year contract with the Dodgers it hasn’t started, he’ll almost surely easily exceed the required 10 years, but he still has four seasons left. On that front, that means the answer “is he already a Hall of Famer” is a resounding no.
However, the foundation Ohtani has laid is that of a Hall of Famer, even for a 29-year-old who needs at least four more seasons. I also don’t think it would be a bad thing if people started giving him a “future Hall of Fame” label. Here’s why.
MVP
Ohtani won two MVPs. He is one of only 30 players in history to have wielded this equipment on multiple occasions. Almost all of them are Hall of Famers. Those who are not currently are Ohtani, Roger Maris, Dale Murphy, Juan Gonzalez, Miguel Cabrera, Bryce HarperA rod, Albert Pujols, Mike Trout and Barry Bonds. Among them, Cabrera, Pujols and Trout are headed to Cooperstown five years after retirement and I’d bet Harper will be too. A-Rod and Bonds are PED-related outliers.
Simply, the list of players who have won multiple MVPs and who have not been admitted to the Hall of Fame absent extreme circumstances is small.
If Ohtani wins another MVP, more than three MVPs means Hall of Fame, unless you pulled an A-Rod/Bonds. In addition to this duo, the players will win three MVPs: Jimmie Foxx, Joe DiMaggio, Stan Musial, Roy Campanella, Yogi Berra, Mickey Mantle, Mike Schmidt, Pujols and Trout.
8.5+ seasons of WAR
Ohtani has posted at least 8.5 in WAR (baseball-reference.com version) in each of the last three seasons. That’s a huge number. There aren’t many players in history who have done it three times in their career, let alone three consecutive seasons.
The only pitchers to do it in the live-ball era are Lefty Grove (six times), Roger Clemens (five), Randy Johnson (four), Pedro Martinez, Greg Maddux, Bob Gibson and Bob Feller. Twenty-three position players have had at least three seasons 8.5+ WAR. Much like the list of pitchers, all are either Hall of Famers (19 of them), tied PEDs (Bonds and A-Rod) or have not yet been placed on the ballot (Pujols, Trout).
I realize Ohtani’s silhouette is combined with WAR’s pitching and hitting, but that’s part of what would become his Hall of Fame record.
The Fame Factor/The Eye Test
Career war and awards aside, it will be harder to judge Ohtani’s numbers against other Hall of Famers than anyone we’ve ever seen, with the possible exception of Babe Ruth – and even then, Ruth essentially overlapped as a full-time pitcher and hitter for just two seasons. Ohtani has already outplayed him in both directions.
By itself, Ohtani should have a huge leg up on other players who look similar simply because of the difficulty throwing and hitting at a high level. As much attention he receives for this from the media and MLB fan base, you should talk to some players. They are extremely impressed with his work. Walking around All-Star media day, they all talk about him like he’s a rock star and they can’t even understand how he’s doing it.
CC Sabathia told me last April that Ohtani was the best player of all time.
“I don’t think so and that’s why I give him so much praise,” Sabathia said when I asked if fans could understand how difficult it is to be a two-way player. “People like to compare him to Babe Ruth, but there wasn’t a lot of overlap and I don’t think the players were as good as they are today.”
He also noted the routine of MLB starting pitchers these days.
“That’s what’s so amazing,” Sabathia said. “Everything I did to prepare myself to pitch every five days, I couldn’t imagine doing it and still being one of the best hitters on the team – producing that way. It’s amazing what ‘he can do it.’
This really blows all statistical comparisons away for me.
It’s also easy to lose track of such things when diving into the numbers, but I always make sure to discuss the “feel” test. When you watched/watched a player, did you feel like you were watching greatness?
I used the word emphatic earlier and, boy, the answer to what we’ve seen from Ohtani these last three seasons is a resounding yes. He absolutely feels like a Hall of Famer.
Similar statistics
As a hitter, Ohtani is a career .274/.366/.556 hitter, which is good for a 148 OPS+. On a price basis, this is a Hall of Fame quality track. He has 681 hits, 129 doubles, 171 home runs, 437 RBIs, 428 runs and 86 steals. For its age, the count stats would probably be a little behind what we’d want for a compiler, but there’s so much time left and, uh, he’s also a damn pitcher.
Baseball-reference.com has a handy tool that shows the most similar players statistically and up to age 28, Ohtani’s top 10 most similar hitters include Hall of Famer David Ortiz and Fred McGriff. Big hitters like Tony Clark, Ryan Howard, Pete AlonsoMo Vaughn, Matt Olson and Cecil Fielder are also there.
On the pitching side, he is 38-19 with a 3.01 ERA, 1.08 WHIP and 608 strikeouts in 481 2/3 innings. Through the age of 28, his list of top 10 most statistically similar pitchers includes quality arms like Yu DarvishTim Belcher, Alex Cobb And Jacob of Grom.
And again we have to combine them. Just think if David Ortiz threw like Tim Belcher or Matt Olson also threw like Alex Cobb? I guess we don’t need to think too much, since Ohtani shows it. We can’t take this for granted going forward, so keep these examples in mind.
What more needs to be done?
Let’s say Ohtani hits like anything even remotely close to how he hit the last three seasons the next few years, then picks up where he left off on the mound starting in 2025 after surgery. at the elbow. I’d say it’s really enough for him to have 10 years under his belt. The numbers probably don’t matter much in reality. He’s already had three MVP-caliber two-way seasons. Just stack a few more and it’s already home.
What could derail it? Things we don’t want to think about that would keep him from playing for a full 10 years or a disastrous performance that just doesn’t seem realistic to contemplate. We’ve seen dips in numbers cost players like Andruw Jones, but Jones never won an MVP award and only finished in the top seven in voting once. He was a star, maybe even a superstar, but he wasn’t close to what Ohtani is today. That is to say, the kind of drop required in Ohtani’s numbers for him to reach 10 years of service and not be a Hall of Famer is beside the point.
Shohei Ohtani will be a Hall of Famer. I am very confident of it. It’s just a matter of biding your time.
