There are two phases of college basketball non-conference schedules for most Mountain West schools. The first phase is to stack wins against teams you should beat. And the second phase includes participating in Multi-Team Events (MTE) against top competition where, hopefully, the meat of your non-league CV will be built. Most MW schools will transition from phase one to phase two of this non-league schedule starting today.
Thanksgiving week is usually when teams play MTEs, and that’s the case this week with Boise State at the Maui Invitational; San Diego State and UNLV at the Player Era Festival; Colorado State in Battle of Atlantis 4; and Nevada, Grand Canyon, Fresno State and San Jose State in the Acrisure Series. This week alone, MW schools will play at least eight games against Power 4 schools, a number that will increase depending on how the MTE brackets play out. So far, MW schools have only faced four Power 4 opponents, going 1-3 (New Mexico beat Mississippi State and lost to Nebraska in its MTE last week while San Jose State lost to Utah and Michigan State in a single-game series).
Overall, it feels like MW had a poor start to the season with teams across the league going a combined 45-21, which seems OK until you realize MW just finished the “teams you should beat” phase of non-league play. Instead, MW suffered 16 losses against teams ranked above 100 in KenPom. It’s not great. As the second phase of the non-conference schedule begins today, here’s how each MW team has progressed in this initial KenPom rankings to their current mark.
Mountain West KenPom Movement
San Diego State – 30th to 42nd (down 12)
Utah State — 42nd to 27th (up 15)
Boise State – 53rd to 60th (down seven)
Colorado State – 79th to 76th (up three)
Grand Canyon – 70th to 100th (down 30)
New Mexico – 97th to 96th (plus one)
UNLV – 107th to 98th (plus nine)
Nevada – 92nd to 110th (down 18)
Wyoming – 155th to 134th (up 19)
San Jose State – 160th to 154th (up six)
Fresno State — 190th to 174th (up 16)
Air Force – 257th to 298th (down 41)
That’s a total drop of 39 spots, although 41 of those came from the Air Force. If you throw out the Falcons’ numbers, the MW actually improved cumulatively by two points. Now, the KenPom numbers incorporate some information from last year into the equation, which decreases as this year’s results are compiled. This might help the MW numbers. Additionally, Boise State’s loss to Division II Hawaii Pacific is not taken into account since they are a lower tier school. MW’s poor early start didn’t doom the league. This poses a problem, however.
MW entered the season with a top eight finish that had at least semi-realistic aspirations of earning an at-large berth in the NCAA tournament. These eight schools cumulatively lost 39 spots on KenPom, with Grand Canyon (down 30), Nevada (down 18) and San Diego State (down 12) being the biggest culprits. Boise State is also down by seven points, and that’s not counting the bad loss to Hawaii Pacific. This is where there is a problem. The upper two-thirds of the MW struggled. You generally need a top-60 KenPom score to earn an at-large berth in the NCAA tournament, and the MW currently has three such teams in Utah State (27th), San Diego State (42nd) and Boise State (60th), with the Broncos also having that unincorporated loss at Hawaii Pacific.
After placing at least four teams in each of the last four NCAA tournaments, the MW has an uphill battle to do so again this season in the final year of the MW as we know it before next year’s Pac-12 split. Best case scenario, three deals is a more likely cap, but much of that will be determined with this week’s MTEs. These matches always go a long way in determining the parameters of a league. They are even more important this season due to some bad losses early in the season in the MW.
Columnist Chris Murray provides insight into Northern Nevada sports. Contact him at [email protected] or follow him on Twitter @ByChrisMurray.
