Even though I realize I’ve been writing about perspectives for over a quarter of a century, there are still so many aspects that remain fresh, fun, and fascinating.
And then, every once in a while, a perspective presents itself and you’re both baffled and blown away. Reds shortstop Elly De La Cruz It’s that kind of perspective.
He is a switch-hitting shortstop whose size is similar to Oneil Cruzbut with even more athleticism, a stronger arm and just as much power.
You already know what a high-end arm he has with top-end power and speed. And he’s one of the players who can handle shortstop at 6-foot-5, thanks to elite body control. He also draws praise for his magnetic leadership skills.
But he’s also long been a hope with a fatal flaw. He hits too much, compiling multiple seasons with a strikeout rate above 30%, which is usually the kiss of death for prospects.
De La Cruz struck out in 31% of his plate appearances last year. The list of current MLB regulars who have struck out 30% or more of AP in a full MiLB season is very small. There is Jazz Chisholm, Joey Gallo, Jose Siri, MJ Melendez and a very long list of minor leaguers who have passed away. Over the course of his career, De La Cruz has struck out in 29% of all professional appearances, which is also a high rate.
Usually, players with De La Cruz’s strikeout rates get a very tough lesson from the minor leagues.
Gallo made it to the majors despite a 35% strikeout rate thanks to absurd power. He broke home run records in the minors. But he was also a .254 hitter for his MiLB career. His struggles to average were evident in the minors. Chisholm’s 30% strikeout rate in the minors accounts for his .256 batting average in the minors. In both cases, they walked enough to alleviate many of their batting average issues.
De La Cruz had no such problems. He is a career .299 MiLB hitter, and he is hitting .301 since arriving stateside to start the 2021 season. He hit .304 between High-A and Double-A while striking out 31% of the time. time.
De La Cruz performed everywhere he touched in the minors. Since arriving stateside and making his post-Covid MiLB debut in 2021, De La Cruz is hitting .301/.360/.580. His counting numbers for 550 plate appearances are even stronger. De La Cruz averages 36 doubles, 14 triples, 30 home runs and 42 steals in 53 attempts for 550 plate appearances.
And that’s where De La Cruz’s aggressiveness, strikeout rates, and walk rates become harder to reconcile.
It’s hard to say De La Cruz has learned the lesson that excessive aggression can trip him up, because so far no minor league level has been able to prove to him that that’s the case. De La Cruz is one of those rare players who may just be too athletic and too good to be truly tested until he reaches the big leagues.
But what has been fascinating to watch this year is that De La Cruz is showing signs that he has repaired the last remaining hole in his game, even if he has not yet been forced to do so by a period of difficulties.
And that’s another way that following up with prospects never gets old, because you’re trying to resolve questions and connect dots toward answers that are never entirely obvious at the time.
De La Cruz was held out for several weeks with a hamstring injury and did not make his Triple-A debut until April 20. In those first five games, De La Cruz was 2-for-22 with one walk and 11 strikeouts.
Since then, De La Cruz has been making contact and scoring goals at the best rates of his young professional career. Here is a 14-day rolling average of his strikeout rates and walk rates since arriving in the United States. Shading marks each time he is promoted to a new level.
See that cliff dive on the blue line? That’s De La Cruz’s strikeout rate falling to the lowest levels of his young career over the past month. Likewise, the skyrocketing red line is his walk rate which easily climbs to the best rates of his professional career.
This is why writing about prospects is difficult. This could well be a great step for De La Cruz without being a real talent move. Or it could be a sign that De La Cruz has gotten to the point where he’s sorting out the last remaining item on his to-do list to become an MLB star.
Several previous studies have shown that walk rates and strikeout rates are among the fastest statistics to stabilize, meaning that smaller samples give a more accurate indicator of true talent than batting average, home run rates, or many other statistics. After just 100 plate appearances, a hitter’s walk rate and strikeout rate have already begun to stabilize, while a hitter’s slugging percentage or on-base percentage would require many more appearances at the plate before we can be sure that this is the hitter’s true talent level.
With that in mind, here’s a look at the 28-day moving averages for De La Cruz. Over a normal 28-game stretch, De La Cruz averages between 120 and 130 plate appearances. This is roughly how it behaves month to month and should smooth out some of the noise that comes with a 14-day average.
De La Cruz’s massive improvements in his walk rate remain pretty clear here, and the trend line is very encouraging. His withdrawal rate improvement is still there, but is not as clear as it was on a 14-day moving average.
And this is where we look towards a foggy future. On a more granular level, De La Cruz’s chase rate this year (33%) is basically the same as last year at Double-A Chattanooga (32%). His swing-and-miss rate increased from 31% to 33%. But his overall swing rate dropped from 49% in Chattanooga to 42%. And it made a huge difference. Last year at Double-A, he was behind the count 40% of the time, ahead of the count 34% of the time and even 26% of the time. This year, he is late in the count 30% of the time, early 43% and even 27% of the time. By reversing how often he is late and how often he is early, De La Cruz keeps pitchers on the defensive, drawing more walks and striking out less.
But there is another factor that complicates the situation. Triple-A uses automated ball striking (ABS) where, during Tuesday-Thursday games, all pitches are called by the computer. From Friday to Sunday, umpires call balls and strikes, but batters, pitchers and catchers can challenge any pitch, with each team allowed three unsuccessful challenges.
And you could say that most of the improvements De La Cruz has made come from the ABS system.
Tuesday-Wednesday-Thursday (ABS)
69 PA, 12 BB (17.4%)
69 AP, 18 Ks (26.1%)
Friday-Saturday-Sunday (challenge system)
75 AP, 8 BB (10.6%)
75 AP, 24 K (32%)
Is this a sign that one of baseball’s top prospects is mastering plate discipline? We can’t say for sure, no matter how hard we try to understand it. But if he is, it increases his chances of becoming a big league star.
