Road games are never easy in the Big 12 Conference, and Iowa State Basketball will put its 10-game winning streak on the line when it travels to Lubbock, Texas to take on the Texas Tech Red Raiders on Saturday afternoon.
THE Cyclones (13-1, 3-0 Big 12 Conference) have beaten every conference opponent thus far by a double-digit margin. They pulled away in the second half to defeat Utah, 82-59, in their previous outing Tuesday night.
Texas Tech (11-3, 2-1) has regained momentum since losing its Big 12 opener to UCF. The Red Raiders bounced back with back-to-back road wins over Utah and BYU. They finished strong against the Cougars for a 72-67 victory Tuesday night.
Saturday’s game is scheduled to tip off at 1 p.m. CT. It will also be available on ESPN.
Here are three things to watch out for:
Texas Tech’s JT Toppin, Darrion Williams are potential NBA draft prospects
There’s still plenty of basketball left, but the Red Raider tandem of junior Darrion Williams and sophomore JT Toppin have both appeared on various mock drafts.
They’re mostly projected to go somewhere in the second round, according to the 2025 NBA Mock Drafts from ESPN and Bleacher Report. However, recent mock releases from Fox Sports and CBS Sports suggest Toppin could move to the mid to late first round.
No matter where they land, there’s no doubt that this is a talented duo.
Toppin, a 6-foot-9, 225-pound forward, has made an immediate impact since transferring from New Mexico. He shined for the Lobos last season, but he has already proven that he is capable of playing and shining at a higher level.
He brings elite athleticism, speed and rebounding, coupled with a 7-foot-2 wingspan. He’s tough on both ends of the court, but he excels at finishing inside and grabbing rebounds. Toppin is averaging 17.2 points, 9.1 rebounds, 1.1 steals and 1.7 blocks per game while shooting 57.0% overall. He has the fourth-highest offensive rebound rate in the country, according to KenPom, so Iowa State’s frontcourt will have to work hard to keep him off the glass.
As for Williams, he is a versatile player who has become more of a power forward this season as he has demonstrated his passing ability. The 6-foot-6 junior is averaging 16.4 points, 5.7 rebounds, 5.2 assists and 1.4 steals per game.
He’s a strong perimeter defender who can score from almost anywhere on the court. It’s been a slow start from beyond the arc, where he’s shooting just 34.7 percent after posting a 45.8 percent rate from the three-point line last season, but he can still take and make three points. His play has been a welcome addition for the Red Raiders this year.
Texas Tech impresses statistically, thanks to analysis
The college basketball polls may not favor unranked Texas Tech with just six AP votes and one coach vote, but the Red Raiders are well reflected in the analytics.
Texas Tech is ranked No. 15 in the country by KenPom.
Diving into the analytics, the Red Raiders have one of the best offenses in the country. They are no slouch defensively either, ranking in the top 60 for defensive efficiency.
Texas Tech enters Saturday’s game ranked 7th in offensive efficiency. He has the second-highest field goal percentage in the country at 59.1%. He also ranks in the top 15 in offensive rebounding rate (37.7%), three-point shooting (39.4%) and shooting percentage inside the arc (59.1%). ). The Red Raiders also take good care of the ball, with a turnover rate of 15.2%, which ranks 44th in the country.
Although Toppin and Williams make an impressive pair, also keep an eye on Chance McMillian, Kevin Overton and Elijah Hawkins.
McMillian, a 6-3 senior, averages 15.6 points per game and is the nation’s most efficient perimeter shooter. He leads the country with a 50.0% long-distance success rate.
Hawkins is a 5-foot-11 point guard who is feisty on both ends of the court. Although he is primarily a facilitator with 5.6 assists per game, he dropped 22 points and shot 6 of 9 from beyond the arc in Texas Tech’s recent win over BYU.
Overton, a sophomore transfer from Drake, gives Texas Tech another scoring and rebounding option off the bench. He’s had an up-and-down year, but Overton has scored 17 or more points five times this year.
Iowa State basketball’s mettle will be tested as it seeks its first victory in Lubbock since 2019
Iowa State last won at United Supermarkets Arena, the home field of the Red Raiders, during the 2018-19 season.
TJ Otzelberger was still the head coach at South Dakota State and hadn’t even gone to UNLV yet.
Marial Shayok dropped 20 points while Michael Jacobson added a double-double of 14 points and 10 rebounds to help the Cyclones upset then-top 10 Texas Tech, 68-64, on January 16, 2019.
Since then, Iowa State has gone 0-4 on road trips to Texas Tech. The Cyclones lost those road games by an average margin of 15.5 points. Their last road trip to Lubbock on January 30, 2023, was the closest of the bunch, however, when they lost 80-77 in overtime.
Iowa State only played Texas Tech at home last season and won 82-74. Four of the players who participated in that game are back – Keshon Gilbert, Milan Momcilovic, Tamin Lipsey and Curtis Jones – and all scored in double figures and totaled 56 points.
Don’t let Texas Tech’s unrankedness fool you, this will be a tough game. KenPom and ESPN both project Iowa State to be the favorite, but only 51% favorite to win. Looking at the rest of the Cyclones’ schedule, only the road games at Kansas and Houston offer lower winning percentages for Iowa State, according to KenPom.
Eugene Rapay covers Iowa State athletics for the Des Moines Register. Contact Eugene at [email protected]. Follow him on Twitter at @erapay5.
This article was originally published on Des Moines Register: Iowa State Basketball vs. Texas Tech Game Preview: 3 Things to Watch
