Perspective: German workplaces and soccer fields strategize ‘stormy’ for Trump
Our discussion now focuses on education and vacations, as I ask my fellow soccer parents’ opinions regarding the US elections while discussing my upcoming article for CNN Opinion.
Observe 2024 from a distance
Each month in the run-up to the US election, a CNN Opinion writer, based in a separate location, investigates how people view America and why the election outcome affects them. Read about it here: “Taiwan’s View: I’d rather raise my child here than in America. »
Jörg, who has been associated with our team for a long time and whose son Miguel is our son’s coach, expresses his concern. Jörg, who works shifts for a local railroad company, enjoys watching late-night political talk shows that frequently discuss the concept of a second Donald Trump presidency.
“I’m very worried,” says Jörg. “Trump seems to be the leader of a cult. His followers follow him blindly. It’s scary.” If Trump is elected, he predicts that American troops will be withdrawn from Europe and aid to Ukraine will cease.
Eda, a teacher at a Berlin college who teaches politics, and Piero, an Italian urban researcher and professor living in Berlin for years, share Jörg’s concerns. Both are very attentive to American news, like Jörg.
Piero finds many aspects of this election confusing. He is shocked by the Biden-Trump rematch. “The Democrats failed to find a successor while they still had the chance,” he says.
Although this conversation on a soccer field provides insight into German views on the U.S. election, it is not a frequent topic of conversation outside the Berlin political bubble. With other looming concerns, such as the Gaza conflict, the ongoing Ukraine issue, difficulty finding a plumber due to labor shortages, and navigating post-inflationary financial challenges, American politics is a subject that preoccupies many minds.
I often find that people are watching the election unfold, comparing the situation to a distant storm that may or may not affect them.
American elections: a European threat?
The American elections have always been the subject of much discussion in Germany. But this year, the feeling of apprehension is heightened. Due to Russia’s massive invasion of Ukraine since February 2022, Europe’s dependence on the United States for its security is at the center of political discourse.
Germany and other European countries have increased their military investments, developed their defense industry and provided billions in military and financial aid to Ukraine. However, without American support, Ukraine’s, and therefore Europe’s, predicament would be disastrous. The United States is both a security savior and a potential peril. And this feeling is shared by many.
At a recent Trump rally, the former president bragged about telling a European leader to “encourage” Russia “to do whatever it wants” to any NATO member country who would not respect his “bills”. In other words, if they broke their spending promises to NATO.
Despite this reality, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz downplayed the importance of the US elections for Germany and Europe during a press conference in late April. He says he is “fairly confident” that NATO will remain unchanged “over the coming decades”.
His false composure is likely to assuage the concerns of ordinary citizens like my soccer moms and dads. The chancellor’s exaggerated nonchalance is also unlikely to accurately reflect his true thoughts.
When I raise the issue with German administration officials, they reveal a different mindset. They are actively preparing for both potential outcomes.
Preparing for a Trump-Induced Storm
It’s a Monday evening and I’m in the office of a senior government official, in a vast maze of identical corridors of a large government building in Berlin. He agrees to discuss Germany’s preparation for potential US election results without revealing his identity to discuss sensitive issues.
First, he said, attempts are being made to establish connections with individuals close to Trump, Republican senators, representatives and governors. In September last year, German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock embarked on an extensive tour, visiting destinations including Texas, where she spoke with Governor Greg Abbott. Many other German officials also travel to the United States, often to the southern and central regions of the country, to build relationships.
Second, he points out that the administration is working to raise awareness among the German business community that things could get tough, especially if Trump wins. People expect Trump to impose new tariffs on European goods and try to persuade European companies to cooperate more closely with the United States to control China. However, the official predicts it could get tougher, even under Biden. He also predicts an unstable Congress, regardless of the election outcome.
Third, Germany is inquiring about potential outcomes with its close European allies, such as Poland and France, regarding Trump’s re-election, the official said. “If Donald Trump is re-elected, we must try to remain united within the European Union, with Poland, France and Germany in the lead,” he says. If Europe maintains its unity, it may have a better chance of extracting concessions from Trump than currently expected. After all, the United States also depends on the European market.
Although this perspective is based on the assumption that Trump, if re-elected, will act rationally, the official wonders: “What if this assumption is false?” » What if Trump sought to withdraw the United States from NATO or created a “dormant NATO,” a NATO present only in name?
Even if Biden wins again or Trump proves more rational than expected, the United States’ reputation in Germany will already have been damaged due to the democratic backsliding of the past decade.
The “American dream” is changing
Back on the soccer field, Eda and I talk about sports. Eda, wearing a Dallas Mavericks jersey, expresses her enthusiasm for the NBA. She’s never been to the United States but plans to go if the Mavericks ever make the finals, too bad for them.
Eda and I, both born at the cusp of Generation X and Millennials, have a deep fascination with American culture. Despite the turbulence in U.S.-German political relations, we agree that America has always been a captivating concept throughout our lives.
We came to political awareness under the presidency of George H. Bush during the first Gulf War. Remember the excitement in 2008 when America elected Barack Obama, Germany’s first black president? People fondly remember his visit to Berlin, causing widespread traffic chaos as 200,000 people flocked to the Victory Column to witness him.
U.S.-German relations have never been limited to trade, military cooperation, or the nuclear umbrella. America’s soft power, cultural and political appeal have led generations of Germans to view America as a natural ally.
The European far right is watching America
Over the past decade, the perception of America among Germany’s younger generations has changed. For many, America has transformed into a sinister force that empowers anti-democratic movements.
One Friday afternoon, Schahina Gambir, a Green MP in the Bundestag, speaks with me by telephone about the impact of the elections on European security and society. Born in Kabul in 1991 and raised in rural northern Germany, Gambir specializes in foreign affairs and human rights issues.
Gambir says the US elections will surely affect Europe’s security. But it will also affect German society. “The debates in the United States are reverberating here, perhaps pushing Europe to the right,” she says, explaining that right-wing networks in Europe have links to right-wing networks in the United States. American conspiracy theories have spread in Germany, affecting for example the anti-vaccine movement.
As a young woman, Gambir remembers the Obama era. Yet many German teenagers and students today view the United States solely as a Trump-centered nation in a downward spiral. A new Trump presidency would not only jeopardize Germany’s security, but it would also perpetuate this vision of the United States for another four years.
The day after our discussion, our children triumphantly won their game. Eda and her son leave with a feeling of satisfaction. Later, Eda texts me: “The Dallas Mavericks lost.” She adds a crying emoji.
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Source: edition.cnn.com
