Scoring ability in the NBA is most often discussed by looking at who is among the league leaders in points per game.
The assumption that players who score the most must be top scorers makes sense on the surface, but this method of evaluation makes no distinction between efficient scorers and those who simply have a heavily used role. Looking at raw points per game is also an inappropriate way to compare scoring ability across eras.
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In other words, players who score a lot simply because they shoot a lot are not the most efficient scorers in the league.
Use the new FTN NBA Stats HubWe can identify underrated scorers and potential stars by looking at field goal percentage versus expectations.
Explain field goal percentage versus expectations
FGOE measures how much better or worse a player’s field goal percentage is compared to league expectations after adjusting for shot location, shot value, and quality of defensive competition during the field goal attempt.
In more understandable language, FGOE isolates pure shooting skill by taking into account more than just whether or not the ball went into the basket.
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Unlike field goal% or true shooting%, FGOE:
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Adjusts to shot difficulty
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Take free throws out of the equation
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Reports the quality of the defense during the shot attempt
A player who has a high FGOE makes a higher rate of similar types of shots than his peers.
Removing volume privilege
Not all high-volume scorers see their numbers inflated simply based on opportunity. Nikola Jokić (+12.6% FGOE), Kevin Durant (+8.9%) and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (+8.1%) are widely considered among the best scorers in the league, and for good reason. Their teams trust them to make many shots, in large part because of their skill in making them.
Yet they aren’t the only players who deserve to be held in high regard for their shooting ability.
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NBA Stats Hub has a filter feature that allows us to exclusively look at players in smaller roles, who are quietly delivering impressive results relative to their respective teams’ expectations.
Lower Shooting Volume (FGA) + High Field Goal Percentage Over Expectation (FGOE)
DeMar DeRozan, Sacramento Kings
During the 2021-22 campaign, DeMar DeRozan ranked seventh in the NBA in scoring, averaging 27.9 points per game. Since then, his per game rating has taken a big hit – up to 19.0 per game this season – but he continues to make the most of his opportunities.
DeRozan is averaging 6.7 fewer field goal attempts per game than in 2021-22, but he would likely still put up big numbers if he were on a team that allowed him to shoot more frequently.
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Among 73 players averaging 10-15 FGA per game this year, no one has a higher FGOE than DeRozan (+7.0%).
Kon Knueppel, Charlotte Hornets
Is it possible that Kon Knueppel will be part of the next class of NBA superstars? The fourth overall selection in last summer’s draft is having a superb rookie season for the Hornets, averaging 19.0 points. Even more impressive, he achieves this with just 13.6 field goal attempts per game.
Only seven players are averaging more points per game than Knueppel on fewer than 15 shot attempts this season. These seven players are established veterans who are well past their rookie contracts.
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Miles McBride, New York Knicks
Miles McBride is a fan favorite in the Big Apple, and for good reason. Since entering the league, McBride has seen his playing time increase with each subsequent season – until reaching a career-high 28.3 minutes per game this year.
He’s making the most of his opportunities for the Knicks, averaging 13.1 points while shooting 43.1 percent from beyond the arc. In fact, McBride has the highest FGOE of any New York player so far this season.
Bobby Portis, Milwaukee Bucks
Giannis Antetokounmpo isn’t the only high-quality player stuck on a bad Milwaukee team. Bobby Portis doesn’t have Antetokounmpo’s athleticism, but his shooting ability is on par with the best players in the league.
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Portis is shooting a career-best 47.4 percent from 3-point territory this season, averaging 13.1 points on just 10.6 field goal attempts per game. If the Bucks choose to be sellers before the league’s trade deadline, there will surely be a number of active suitors hoping to add Portis for their team’s playoff run.
Ivica Zubac, Los Angeles Clippers
Nikola Jokić isn’t the only big man in the NBA who makes tough shots look easy. Among centers averaging at least 10 field goal attempts per game this season, Ivica Zubac ranks second in FGOE.
In 37 games this year, Zubac is averaging 14.8 points on 60.5 percent shooting — his fifth straight season scoring in double figures while shooting north of 60 percent from the floor. Since 2000, Zubac is one of seven players to have had at least seasons meeting such criteria.
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Takeaways
As of the end of Tuesday’s game, there are 20 players in the NBA this season averaging at least 25 points per game. Ten years ago on this date, only five players averaged more than 25 points per game.
Suffice it to say, we can no longer simply look at points per game to determine who is a good scorer. We need metrics like FGOE to help us determine who is truly outperforming their peers.
