If you’re new to college hoops or just don’t consider yourself a fan of statistics, the NCAA quadrant system may be a foreign concept to you. However, it is one of the most frequently used criteria by talking heads on Selection Sunday. Today we’re going to take a look at how that system works and look at Michigan’s schedule to see how things might play out.
THE NCAA Assessment Tool (NET) is a ranking structure designed to reward teams for beating good opponents while heavily considering game location. It replaced the RPI prior to the 2018–19 season and has been used since.
Advertisement
Starting with the 2020-21 season, the NCAA implemented the quadrant system. This helps aggregate results to make it easier to interpret how teams are performing compared to the competition. Here is how the quadrants are distributed:
-
Quadrant 1: Home 1-30, Neutral 1-50, Away 1-75
-
Quadrant 2: Home 31-75, Neutral 51-100, Away 76-135
-
Quadrant 3: Home 76-160, Neutral 101-200, Away 135-240
-
Quadrant 4: Home 161-353, Neutral 201-353, Away 241-353
Like KenPom and AP Poll, the NET rankings currently place Michigan second in the nation. Other Big Ten teams of note include No. 6 Illinois, No. 8 Purdue, No. 10 Nebraska and No. 11 Michigan State.
With that in mind, Michigan is currently 20-1 overall this season. The Wolverines are 7-0 in Quad 1 games, with a home win over Nebraska (10), neutral site wins over San Diego State (45), Auburn (29) and Gonzaga (5) and road wins over TCU (54), Washington (48) and Michigan State (11). San Diego State is on the verge of falling into second quarter territory, but the rest should easily stay that way with the Quad 1 win.
The Wolverines are 8-1 in Quad 2 games. That includes home wins over Villanova (33), McNeese (61), USC (47), Indiana (32) and Ohio State (41), a neutral site win over Wake Forest (72) and road wins over Penn State (133) and Oregon (115). There’s a real possibility that the Villanova and Indiana wins end up being Quad 1 wins by the end of the season, but the Penn State win could move down to Quad 3. In fact, just yesterday Indiana’s win was a Quad 1 win, but the Hoosiers slipped out of the top 30 in the latest rankings update.
Advertisement
In Quad 3 and Quad 4 games, Michigan is 3-0 and 2-0, respectively, with La Salle (242) and Rutgers (169) being the only Quad 4 games Michigan has played all season.
With only 10 games left in the regular season, let’s see how tough Michigan’s path is. The Wolverines have two Quad 3 games remaining in home games against Penn State (133) and Minnesota (84). We should be rooting for Minnesota to change things up a bit so they can climb into Quad 2 territory. Somewhat surprisingly, Michigan only has one Quad 2 game on the schedule in a home game against UCLA (40).
The remainder of the schedule is a seven-game Quad 1 challenge. Only one of those games is set to fall to the Quad 2 level, as Michigan travels to Northwestern (69). The other six are solidly in the Quad 1 bucket:
-
vs. Duke (3) at a neutral site
If Michigan topped the rankings, Northwestern stayed in the top 75, Indiana climbed two or more spots and Villanova climbed three or more spots in the top 30, the Wolverines would be 16-0 in Quad 1 games.
Advertisement
Currently, there are only two teams in the country that are undefeated in Quad 1 play (minimum three games played): Arizona at 9-0 and Michigan at 7-0. Combining Quads 1 and 2, Michigan has the most wins in the country with 15. Although the NET currently has Michigan ranked lower than Arizona, the quadrant system will likely treat the Wolverines quite well in Selection Sunday.
