Liam Coen discusses Kentucky’s upset win over Louisville
For more than a decade of Mark Stoops football in Kentucky, the Big Blue Nation expects quality defense from the Wildcats. Offense, well, that’s another story.
In eleven years, there have been six offseasons defined by turnover at the offensive coordinator position. It’s no coincidence that Kentucky had its best season in 41 years in Eddie Gran’s third year. The Cats developed an identity through continuity, but ultimately that style of play put a hard cap on the program.
To take Kentucky to new heights, Mark Stoops opted to change the Wildcats’ philosophy ahead of the 2021 season by hiring Liam Coen to implement a pro-style offense that marries Kentucky’s success in the running game with the running game. of passes. He attracted the future NFL starter Will Levis in Lexington and the Wildcats produced the Bluegrass’ best offensive season since Andre Woodson was under center.
The pro-style system worked immediately, but hit speed bumps as Coen bounced between Lexington and the NFL. Despite returning for the 2023 season, there were still several games — at South Carolina in particular — where it felt like the Cats would have won if they could have just scored more points.
This begs the question: Has Kentucky’s offense actually improved in 2023? Let’s take a closer look at the offensive production over the past three seasons.
Kentucky Offensive Efficiency Numbers: 2021-23
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | |
| Points per game | 32.3 | 20.4 | 28.6 |
| Yards per play | 6.47 | 5.2 | 6.06 |
| Yards per transport | 5.23 | 3.26 | 4.97 |
| Yards per pass | 8.0 | 7.8 | 7.0 |
| Played by game | 66.3 | 62.46 | 55.25 |
| Games over 20 meters | 62 | 47 | 59 |
| Third try | 50.7 | 34.1 | 38.1 |
| Red zone TD% | 72.2 | 53.2 | 67.5 |
| SP+ Ranking | 21 | 97 | 43 |
It’s clear that Kentucky was significantly better in almost every statistical category in 2022 and 2023. Under Rich Scangarello, Kentucky ranked last in the SEC in points per game, yards per play, yards per carry and red zone TD %. However, third-down efficiency was still poor, largely thanks to Kentucky’s inefficiency on first and second downs.
The offensive must operate more quickly
As illustrated above, there was one category in which Kentucky’s 2023 offense was worse than its predecessors: play-by-play. Part of the reason is beyond the control of Kentucky’s coaches. College football rules changed this offseason, which allowed the clock to run after the first tests. The data hasn’t been analyzed to determine how many fewer plays have been played across the sport, but it’s safe to say that the new rules have eliminated five or more plays per game for every college football team in America.
The rules don’t completely excuse the slow pace of play that has been criticized by the Big Blue Nation throughout the offseason. As the rules change, coaches must change too.
This is a subject that has already been addressed by Mark Stoops at the Joe Craft Football Training Facility. Don’t expect to see Kentucky regroup after every snap in 2024. That alone should get the Cats back on track with a more efficient operation between plays.
Where Kentucky’s offense fell apart in 2023
One important statistic I didn’t include in the chart: the success rate. What exactly is this advanced statistic? It measures efficiency in the context of down and distance to gain. A piece is considered successful if it meets the following parameters:
- He gains 50% of the yards needed to move the chains on first down
- He gains 70% of the yards needed to move the chains on second down
- He gains 100% of the yards needed to move the chains on third and fourth down.
In Liam Coen’s first season as offensive coordinator, the Wildcats’ success rate of 47.9% ranked them 11th in the nation. That number fell to 100th nationally under Rich Scangarello (38.3%) and was about the same this fall, finishing the regular season ranked 109th (39%).
Although it was only the second offense in the Mark Stoops era to finish the regular season in the Top 50 in the SP+ rankings, the Wildcats did it by being explosive, not efficient. Kentucky needs to be better on a concrete basis to get back to the high benchmark set by Coen and co. in 2021.
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