The Round of 16 continues this weekend at Homestead-Miami Speedway for the NASCAR Cup, Xfinity and Truck Series. Here’s a look at some key questions and other notes.
1. Will any of those below the cut line advance?
This is the largest deviation from the cut line in Cup playoff history after the first race of any round.
Denny Hamlin is 27 points from the final handoff point and he is the closest to those below the cut line. Tyler Reddick is 30 points below the cut line. Defending Cup champion Ryan Blaney is 47 points and Chase Elliott is 53 points out of the final transfer spot. There are two races left in the running.
Of those four, Homestead appears to be the best spot for Reddick, the regular-season champion. He finished in the top five in three of his four Cup starts there.
But he comes into this weekend on a terrible streak. Reddick has placed outside the top 10 in each of the last six playoff races. He finished 20th or worse in five of those six races, including last week’s 35th-place finish at Las Vegas after contact with Elliott triggered a crash and led Reddick to flip along the frontfield before driving his damaged car to his stand.
Martinsville remains after this weekend, Reddick finished no better than seventh at this track. There are two top 10 finishes in nine Cup starts. He has only qualified in the top 10 once. One difference this time is that Martinsville will have a tire change starting in the spring.
Hamlin also has his share of question marks heading into the final two races of this round.
Even though he has four top 10s in the last five playoff races, he has struggled to score stage points. He has scored one point in the last seven stages.
The task is simple, Hamlin said this week on his “Actions Detrimental” podcast.
“If you want to talk about the top three at each stage and the race the next two weeks, it’s me and Reddick,” Hamlin said. “No exceptions.
“If you don’t run top three in every stage, that’s four stages and the race, there’s no way to make up that kind of gap on (William) Byron, (Kyle) Larson or (Christopher) Bell .This also assumes that one of them is not having a good week and is not finishing well, so you also need help.
2. What about Chase Elliott and Ryan Blaney’s chances of progression?
Chase Elliott was blunt when speaking with reporters this week about his situation.
“We are in a must-win situation over the next two weeks,” he said.
Blaney also finds himself in a similar situation.
Elliott is the only driver remaining in the playoffs with a win this season. His victory came in Texas in April.
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The Cup playoffs continue at Homestead-Miami Speedway at 2:30 p.m. ET Sunday on NBC.
Elliott is in this spot after contact with Tyler Reddick last week in Las Vegas damaged both cars – and Blaney’s as he tried to avoid a spinning car and hitting the wall .
Although there are differences between Las Vegas and Homestead, Elliott feels confident heading into this weekend after his pre-crash performance in Las Vegas.
“We just have to continue to work in the direction that we were working in last weekend,” Elliott said. “I thought we had a good thing and I hope it translates to Homestead.
“It’s easy to stay motivated when you have a good rhythm and feel like you’re doing the right thing. I think that’s what was happening, so we’ll try to continue that momentum this weekend.
3. What about those above the cut line of the Cup?
The three drivers above the cut line entering this weekend are also the last three winners at Homestead.
Christopher Bell is 42 points above the cut line, Kyle Larson is 35 points above and William Byron is 27 points above.
Bell won last year at Homestead. Larson won in 2022. Byron won in 2021. These three drivers have combined to lead 61% of the laps taken in the last three races at Homestead and 71.5% of the laps taken in the last two races at the track.
Weekend Schedule, Broadcast Info at 2024 Homestead for Cup, Xfinity, Trucks
Homestead is the middle race of the round of 16 for each series.
Additionally, Bell ranks first in points scored among remaining playoff drivers in the playoffs with 265. Byron is next with 254. Larson ranks fourth with 217 points, one point behind Joey Logano.
Either way, nothing will be easy in this round, but the strength of these drivers makes it more difficult for those below the cut line to take a place in Championship 4.
4. A closer look at Championship 4 drivers in three series
After a run in the round of 16 in the Cup,
Together, these three drivers won a points race during the regular season of their respective series. Logano won the five-overtime Cup race at Nashville Superspeedway.
In the Xfinity Series, Allmendinger’s best regular season finish was third at Atlanta and Watkins Glen.
In the Truck Series, Enfinger’s best regular season finish was second at North Wilkesboro and Pocono.
In the playoffs, Logano has won twice, including last week’s Cup race in Las Vegas. Allmendinger finished second at the Charlotte Roval before winning last week in Las Vegas. Enfinger finished ninth at Kansas before his win at Talladega.
Logano, Allmendinger and Enfinger combined to win four of 15 playoff races (26.7%) in the three series combined.
It should also be noted that all three drivers are 34 years or older. Logano is the youngest of the trio at 34 years old. Enfinger is 39 years old. Allmendinger is 42 years old. Allmendinger is the oldest driver to win in the Xfinity Series since Mark Martin won a race in 2011 at age 52.
5. Numbers to know
5 — Different winners on 1.5-mile tracks this season: Kyle Larson (Las Vegas I, Kansas I), Christopher Bell (Coca-Cola 600), Ross Chastain (Kansas playoffs), Chase Elliott (Texas) and Joey Logano (Las Vegas playoffs).
13 — Cup races have ended in overtime this season, a series record. The last time a Homestead Cup race was extended was in 2016, when Jimmie Johnson won and captured his record seventh Cup championship.
20.6 — Tyler Reddick’s playoff average. His regular season average was 11.2.
70% — Among eventual champions won a run to the round of 16 in the playoff system.
367 — Laps led (of 783) Christopher Bell has led in the last three races on 1.5-mile tracks. In those three races, Bell finished second (Las Vegas in the playoffs), seventh (Kansas in the playoffs), and first (Coca-Cola 600).
