We’re now 15 games into the rookie season of Victor Wembayama, perhaps the most intriguing prospect since LeBron James in 2003-04.
This is enough of a sample size to start breaking down his strengths and weaknesses while analyzing all areas of Wembanyama’s game thus far.
It’s time to give some notes to the early season report card for the San Antonio Spurs’ prized rookie, who is off to an (expected) impressive start.
Wembanyama has plenty of guard skills in his 7’4″ frame. He is able to grab a rebound before taking a few long strides the length of the court and passing a defender on the other side.
The blessing of being able to handle the ball at his size is also a curse, as there is plenty of space between his hand and the ground for defenders to try to reach and push the ball away, especially compared to a 6 foot guard. .
Turnovers have definitely been an issue for Wembanyama early on, as his 3.6 per game ranks him 10th in the NBA this season. His turnovers have been almost perfectly split between bad passes and loose balls, as he sometimes gets a little too impatient trying to act as the primary facilitator. The Spurs’ lack of an elite point guard doesn’t help either.
Wembayama has a high IQ on both ends, which can lead to great hockey assists or cross-court passes where he glances at a corner shooter while keeping his back to the basket.
Finding the right balance between showing off his ball-handling skills and knowing when to step back and not overdo it will be key moving forward.
Wembanyama is a unique rebounder who uses an incredible 8-foot wingspan instead of his slim 209-pound frame to secure the majority of his boards. While it’s a complete opposite approach to some of the league’s best window cleaners like Nikola Jokić, Domantas Sabonis and Rudy Gobert, who use their massive frames to take down smaller opponents, the Wembanyama method has also been shown to be effective.
The 19-year-old ranks 17th overall in rebounds per game (9.1), with the majority of his work being done on the defensive glass (7.1 per game, 16th overall). Wembanyama’s go-go-gadget arms can extend and shoot balls that the vast majority of NBA players would miss.
His total rebound percentage (17.0%) ranks just 29th in the general classification in the NBA, although he is comparable to some of the league’s best players like Giannis Antetokounmpo (17.0 percent), Bam Adebayo (16.7 percent) and Julius Randle (15.9 percent).
Rebounding will never be one of Wembanyama’s best attributes unless he is able to develop additional muscle. Although he will eventually improve as he learns the shooting tendencies of players around the league, this will be one of Wembanyama’s main areas of growth over the first few years of his career.
Wembanyama will go on to win several Defensive Player of the Year awards during his career, with his elite rim protection the main reason why.
His 7’4″ frame and 8-foot wingspan were designed in a shot-blocking lab. Compared to other players of similar size (Boban Marjanović, Tacko Fall, Mark Eaton, etc.), Wembanyama is easily the best athlete in the group. He can move more fluidly and recover more quickly when knocked down.
Wembanyama is already third overall in blocks per game (2.6), behind Anthony Davis and Brook Lopez. He’s only been voted out once this season. His 7.9 percent block rate ranks fourth in NBA Also.
The variations in Wembanyama’s refusals have also been fascinating to watch. While he refuses many one-on-one challenges (even when his opponents attempt a hook shot), his nose for the ball and his timing lead to blocks that most defenders wouldn’t even attempt, like this one on Obi Toppin:
Of course, blocks alone do not measure the quality of interior defense.
Wembanyama limits his opponents to a meager 53.4 percent shooting rate at the edge this season, a better mark than players like Chet Holmgren (56.1 percent), Jaren Jackson Jr. (56.3 percent) and Giannis Antetokounmpo (63.0 percent).
Even when expanding an opponent’s shooting grid to 10 feet, players are shooting just 47.4 percent with Wembanyama as their main defender, a drop of 11.3 percent from their season averages.
Offenses will eventually need to be planned around Wembanyama’s elite paint protection, if they haven’t already.
Although Wembanyama is an elite rim protector, his perimeter defense is already quite good as well.
Using his length to challenge anything that appears to be within a 10-foot radius, opponents simply look uncomfortable trying to shoot three-pointers when Wembanyama is the primary defender, often making a noticeable adjustment to their arc .
What separates Wembanyama from other bigs who can defend outside the paint is his range and recovery. Opponents who drop deep into their bags to create some separation on the perimeter for Wembanyama have to hurry to shoot, as he is incredibly quick to recover and contest a shot. If a player walks past the Spurs rookie, he knows he’ll be right behind him, waiting with his paw outstretched while trying to knock out a layup attempt from behind.
Opponents shoot 37.1 percent out of three against Wembanyama this season, a figure almost identical to their usual success rate of 36.9 percent. What doesn’t show up on the stat sheets is the number of times Wembanyama is replaced by a smaller attacking player on the outside, his mere presence forcing them to pass without even thinking about attempting a shot .
His only 7.6 contested shots per game ranks 41st overall in the NBA, this speaks more to the respect offenses already give Wembanyama instead of a lack of effort on his part.
Even though his footwork is pretty good for someone his size, Wembanyama is still will be a victim at some of the sneakiest guards in the league from time to time.
Wembanyama has expanded his shot selection so far, which is good for a rookie trying to find his best spots in the NBA.
Inside scoring is something most players of Wembanyama’s size would rely on, although his ability to shoot and handle the ball opened everything up. So far, one method has proven to be clearly more effective than the other.
When the 19-year-old stays close to the basket and extends his long arms toward the rim, his success rate is naturally quite high. Wembanyama does 75.0 percent of his shots in the restricted area, a number that surpasses even players like Joel Embiid, Zion Williamson and Anthony Davis.
He’s an easy lob target who would likely draw even more looks inside if the Spurs had a better point guard situation. No one passes/reaches Wembanyama for a high lob pass, which San Antonio should take advantage of more.
The problem with Wembanyama’s inside score is its scarcity. The prized recruit ranks only 62nd overall in field goal attempts in the restricted area (4.3 attempts per game), lower than players like Marvin Bagley III, Deni Avdija and Mo Wagner.
While Wembanyama doesn’t possess the physical strength to run back most of the league’s biggest centers, he can face the perimeter before outrunning an opponent and using his touch to finish around the rim.
His ability to score around the basket is THE weapon the Spurs offense should be built around.
This is the weakest part of Wembanyama’s game so far, although the building blocks are certainly there for this area to develop into another strength.
Wembanyama has struggled mightily with his accuracy virtually everywhere, since outside three feet. He shoots just 26.9 percent from three, 29.6 percent from 16 feet from the arc and 39.4 percent from 10-16 feet.
The mechanics are there for Wembanyama to become an above-average three-point shooter, and he’s actually been better when pulling depth (35.8 percent) than out of the socket (22.7 percent). This is a good sign that, once again, a top point guard would help his overall offensive production.
In terms of shooting, Wembanyama could get truly out of control if he knocks down his “contested” jumpers. His ability to elevate throughout the league has even appealed to Kevin Durant, himself an expert at high releases that few can actually do.
“Yo, when he stood up and shot the ball, I was like, ‘There’s no way I’m even close to that,'” Durant spoke about custody Wembanyama. “I’m just going to play hard and contest, man. You’re going to foul him or he’s just going to make the shot. His misses are all on him.”
For now, the defensive game plan should be to keep Wembaynama as far from the basket as possible. Although he will eventually become an effective three-level scorer, now is not the time.
Passing/Ball Handling: B
Bounce : B+
Internal defense: A+
Perimeter Defense: A-
Interior notation: A-
Perimeter notation: VS-
With only one real weakness in his game so far, Wembanyama has lived up to his sky-high expectations entering the league.
He is a player who, like Stephen Curry, Michael Jordan and Magic Johnson before him, will simply change the game forever with his style of play. We have never seen a player of his size demonstrate so much potential. two sides with true grip and rim protection capability similar to a DPOY candidate.
All the hype last year was well deserved. Wembanyama shows all the signs of being an all-time great.
