After week 4, I took the time to register on the 2024 NFL draft class and how they perform for fantasy football managers. Now, with another month in the books, it’s time to revisit this topic. Here’s a look at several rookies who had a memorable four weeks – for better or worse.
Biggest Surprise: QB Bo Nix, Denver Broncos
There may not have been a rookie QB whose value to fantasy football drew more skepticism than Bo Nix this offseason. Did we miss the signs of a budding fantasy star? Maybe. Through the first half of the Fantasy season, Nix ranks as the overall QB9 of the year, scoring 19 or more Fantasy points in four of his last six outings.
Although he still has some improvement to make as a passer, he has come a long way in the last four weeks; take a look at some of his success metrics from weeks 1-4 versus weeks 5-8 per PFF:
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4.8 APJ ➡️ 7.1
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NFL passer rating 62.5 ➡️ 102.7
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7.8 aDOT ➡️ 9.3
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Accurate throw rate of 55.8% ➡️ 67.0%
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1 TD, 4 INT ➡️ 7 TD, 1 INT
These improvements in the passing game, coupled with his rushing potential (32.4 rushing yards per game, 4 total touchdowns) have earned him three top 10s over the past four weeks despite the Broncos’ unimpressive receiving corps at his disposal — a fact most would have scoffed at before the season.
Slowly rising: WR Keon Coleman, Buffalo Bills
It feels like the excitement died down a bit after the Bills opted to trade for Amari Cooper, but don’t let his arrival overlook the week-to-week improvements for rookie Keon Coleman .
Although he continues to struggle to create space against opposing defenders – a problem for him coming out of Florida State – averaging just 2.2 yards of separation, which ranks him fifth of WRs with 25+ targets, he’s been pretty effective with his opportunities this year. He had a passer rating of 131.5 when targeted (sixth highest), 11.6 yards per target (eighth) and 9.0 yards after the catch per reception (second highest).
Coleman has been a dominant outside threat who has quietly scored seven goals in each of the last two outings. There is a real possibility that Cooper’s arrival could contribute to Coleman’s development as a consistent peripheral threat with a propensity to do damage. breathtaking captures.
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Biggest Disappointment: WR Xavier Worthy, Kansas City Chiefs
The Kansas City Chiefs opted to select speedy WR Xavier Worthy in the first round in an effort to provide weapons for MVP Patrick Mahomes, and it quickly looked like that investment was going to pay off; he had two touchdowns from scrimmage (68 total yards) in his first career game. However, despite numerous opportunities to carve out an immediate role in the offense and a versatile skill set due to season-ending injuries to teammates Hollywood Brown and Rashee Rice, Worthy still has not demonstrated a constant presence.
Worthy is more than just a fast merchant; he can win on speed, sure, but he can also generate separation with his ability as a route runner, including the ability to play both out of the slot and lining up wide. He’s also more than competent when deployed as a runner in the backfield. Still, the addition of DeAndre Hopkins isn’t ideal for potentially increased target share, having had four or fewer targets in half of his games this year, and his 22.9% deep target rate doesn’t does little to limit its volatility, given that these are low probability targets.
Through eight weeks of the season, Worthy is on a 17-game pace for a 46-571-7 receiving line.
Biggest question mark: RB Jonathon Brooks, Carolina Panthers
A number of Fantasy Football managers took shots at Brooks once news broke that he could be set for a relatively quick return this season from a torn ACL. First, reports indicated that the Carolina Panthers were hoping to get him back around Week 3…then they placed him on the PUP list, making him eligible to return in Week 5. SOThey designated him to return to practice in mid-October, but have not yet added him to their active roster, although he could be ready to debut in Week 9.
In short, it’s been a roller coaster. And for what? We don’t really know yet.
There’s no doubt that Brooks was the top running back prospect in this draft class with a particularly well-rounded skill set for a one-year, full-time starter at the position; he can run, he can catch passes, he excels in pass protection. However, the Panthers are clearly taking a long-term approach with their young back in what is already a lost season, and it doesn’t appear they are in a rush to give him an RB1 workload. After all, they have the luxury of not doing so, with the way Chuba Hubbard has stepped up this year.
It increasingly feels like Brooks is either a league-winning asset or a roster nemesis the rest of the season, and maybe there’s not much room in between both.
League Winner: TE Brock Bowers, Las Vegas Raiders
I highlighted Brock Bowers as the winner at an unwinnable position in my last rookie report, and it continues to ring true. This time, I upped the ante with my description, officially ready to call him a league winner for fantasy football managers, barring injury. Bowers currently occupies the TE2 position in semi-PPR scoring formats despite having just one touchdown on the year, ranking sixth in the NFL with 64 targets so far this season while leading the league in receptions (52) and ranking 11th in receiving yards.
Yeah. You read everything correctly.
Bowers produces like a wide receiver despite playing as a tight end – one of the most volatile positions in fantasy football. If you were lucky enough (AKA, smart) to recruit Bowers with his preseason ADP of 111.8, congratulations: you’ve won the TE job.
Secret stash for later: RB Jaylen Wright, Miami Dolphins (7% on roster)
The Miami Dolphins have been in the background without Tua Tagovailoa under center, but now that he’s back, it’s on for the rest of the offense. That includes rookie RB Jaylen Wright…although he doesn’t yet have an immediate path to a significant role.
While there is no doubt that teammate De’Von Achane is the RB1 in this offense, RB2 Raheem Mostert is 32 years old and has already dealt with some injuries this year. If he misses more time (or loses work due to inefficiency, averaging a career-low 3.5 YPC), Wright could be in a great position to maintain some value weekly flexibility with upside potential.
Among RBs with 30+ carries this season, Wright ranks in the top seven in yards per carry (5.3), rushing rating (89.0), yards after contact per attempt (3.61) and in elusive grade (120.4) by PFF. He offers an elite combination of size and athleticism (5-foot-10, 210 pounds running a 4.38 40-yard dash) that could make him a very attractive reserve if given the opportunity.
