A simple look at a box score or a study of fantasy football categories doesn’t always tell the whole story of a player’s performance. Dalton Del Don attempts to identify misleading numbers that merit closer examination.
Yes… The numbers lie.
Marvin Harrison Jr.’s four touchdowns are a lie
Harrison Jr. ranks 59th in receptions and 38th in red zone targets, but he is tied for the second most touchdowns in the league. He has fewer receptions than Michael Wilson and has been incredibly dependent on touchdowns, with 35% of his fantasy scores come from TD. The rookie has erased any initial concerns about his speed, but his role has been shaky in an Arizona offense that has taken a step back this season. Harrison Jr. is one of only two receivers to have seen follow routes or disappear on more than 30% of their targets.
Harrison Jr.’s 42.2% share of air yards looks good, but it comes with a a 60% captureable target rate which ranks 74th in the league. He is among the league leaders in uncompleted air yards during recording the second most contested catches. Among pass catchers with at least 25 targets, Harrison Jr. ranks 39th in designed targets rate (5.9%). MHJ sees no layup targets and has yet to catch more than five balls in a game.
Harrison Jr. is averaging 8.4 fantasy points (0.5 PPR) when not facing the worst pass defense in the league (the Rams allow 9.0 YPA!), which would make him the WR46 of the year. Additionally, MHJ will likely be followed by Jaire Alexander (who returned to practice Wednesday) this week, and after that he won’t face a defense that currently ranks outside the top 10 in Fantasy scoring WR allowed through Week 13!
Kyler Murray is averaging just 194.4 passing yards this season, and Arizona’s offense has been a disaster outside of early drives; Murray had 10.0 YPA with a 6:0 TD:INT ratio (and his only rushing score) on attempts 1-10 this season, but that drops to a 5.3 YPA with a TD:INT ratio 1:2 after scripted games (11+ attempts).
Harrison Jr. will make plays, but early touchdowns (and a game against the Rams) masked a discouraging role in a disappointing offense. Trey McBride has yet to break out this year (more on him later), and Wilson is emerging. Harrison Jr. will establish himself as a top-20 fantasy receiver, but his expectations need to be lowered (he’s closer to Brian Thomas Jr. than a healthy Malik Nabers).
Garrett Wilson’s big game last week was a lie
Wilson easily had his best game of the season last week, racking up 13 catches for 101 yards and a score. But it took 23 targets, which is the fifth since the statistic began being tracked in 1992. Wilson’s route plan was absolutely horrible on Sundayand the Jets were facing a Vikings defense that came in, allowing by far the highest passing rate and most passing yards in the league. This was Wilson’s first weekly finish in the top 10 WR since his rookie season.
New York scored the same number of points over five matches like they did last season, when Zach Wilson had a better YPA than Aaron Rodgers currently has. Garrett Wilson’s average depth of target (8.1 yards) ranks 43rd in the league, and 70% of his targets went behind the line of scrimmage or within nine meters. He ranks first among targets this season with 56 but only 22 on they were captureable. His yards per target (5.2) are sixth worst in the league.
While it’s unclear how a head coaching change fixes the offense, at least Nate Hackett was removed from his caller duties. The chemistry between Rodgers and Wilson is also sure to improvebut Wilson could also soon compete for targets with Davante Adams.
Wilson gets some stingy pass defense from Buffalo this week, followed by phantom matchups with Joey Porter Jr. and Christian Gonzalez. Like Harrison Jr., Wilson has a disappointing role on an underperforming offense, so he’s unlikely to be worth his lofty ADP despite last week’s deceptive performance.
D’Andre Swift’s two touchdowns are a lie
The window to buy cheap in a trade closed after RB finished in the top three in each of the last two weeks, but Swift’s season-long fantasy production remains deceptive thanks to a stellar start slow and unlucky TD production. Swift was tackled at the one-yard line (and later didn’t score on that drive) three times last week when he also had a touchdown negated by an illegal shifting penalty. Swift made seven of 10 runs last week, but saw Roschon Johnson pilfer two short scores.
The use of Swift has been same for the last two weeksbut his production soared even with unlucky scoring. A very favorable schedule helped, but Swift looked good and more comfortable in a new Chicago offense. Most importantly, Caleb Williams has shown real growth.
Swift is turnover opportunities at the goal line with Johnsonbut Khalil Herbert was put on ice. Swift is the RB13 in expected fantasy pointsjust ahead of Derrick Henry and Jahmyr Gibbs. Additionally, the Bears have the second simplest projected RB schedule over the next five games.
Swift was also stopped at the one who has been the second most times in the league (six) last year, but his fortunes are expected to decline on the goal line. More touchdowns are to come, so Swift is considered a high buy in fantasy trades.
Trey McBride’s TE10 rank is a lie
McBride was knocked out of one game and missed another with a concussion. He has achieved a goal share of over 29% in three of four games this season and has the simplest remaining tight end schedule. He was considered open about three times more than Sam LaPorta. while traveling a similar number of routes. McBride dropped a potential touchdown in the end zone last week, and he leads all tight ends in first-read target rate (25.9%).
McBride has a better separation rate and a higher designed target rate (13.3% vs. 5.9%) than Marvin Harrison Jr., who runs a ton of go and fade routes. McBride will benefit from Harrison’s limited role on routes, and he led all tight ends in first downs per route run last season as a sophomore.
Travis Kelce without Rashee Rice and emerging Brock Bowers have arguments, but McBride is right there with them as Fantasy’s best tight end moving forward.
