Using matchup data, I have 12 sleepers that could help your fantasy football teams get those much-needed wins and propel you to the fantasy playoffs. Good luck and here we go….
Quarterbacks
Jacoby Brissett vs. JAX
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The Jags defense had a great performance against Justin Herbert last week, but overall they have allowed the fifth-most fantasy points per game (FPPG).
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They had given up more than 25 fantasy points in three straight games before Week 11, in which Matt Stafford started the party, but quarterbacks like Geno Smith and Davis Mills came through and cleaned up as well.
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Brissett has donned the fantasy mantle of Superman: since becoming a starter in Week 6, he is QB8 in total scoring and QB4 (!!!) in scoring per game, averaging 21.9 FPPG. I literally can’t believe I just typed that.
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Sam Darnold vs. TEN
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Three of the last four quarters the Titans have faced have scored more than 23 fantasy points.
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The Titans are particularly weak at outside corner. They allowed a 71.1% success rate to outside receivers, ranking dead last, while also giving up the fifth-most yards. This bodes well for Darnold who should force Jaxon Smith-Njigba to eat all game with reckless abandon.
Bryce Young vs. SF
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The Niners are dead last in sacks per game and quarterback pressure rate this season. Consistently clean pockets led to opposing quarterbacks torching this Niners defense.
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The aforementioned Brissett was the last of four straight quarterbacks to drop 20+ fantasy points against this defense (Stafford, Jaxson Dart, CJ Stroud).
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Young is coming off the best game of his NFL career: His 448 passing yards last week against Atlanta were by far a career high and he threw three touchdowns for only the second time in his career, tying a career high.
DEEP SLEEP: Shedeur Sanders vs. LV
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The pass defense has had its ups and downs, but overall the Raiders have forced the second-lowest QB pressure rate. As a pure pocket passer, this bodes well for Sanders.
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The stat line from Sanders’ first NFL action in Week 11 was atrocious (4 of 16 for 47 yards and a pick), but when you watch the film, he honestly wasn’t as bad as the counting stats suggest. He played well on the few snaps where the offensive line didn’t immediately collapse. The ball placement was good and he showed MUCH more power in his arm strength than Dillon Gabriel.
Running backs
Alvin Kamara vs. ATL
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Watch the injury report as Kamara nurses an ankle injury, but he participated on a limited basis in back-to-back practices to start the week.
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If he’s ready to go, he has a great game as the Falcons give up the fourth FPPG at the position. Six different running backs have scored more than 11 PPR points in Atlanta’s last five games. This includes a 49-point PPR game against Colts RB Jonathan Taylor and a 39-point game against 49ers RB Christian McCaffrey.
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The 4.1 yards after contact per carry allowed ranks second-worst in the NFL.
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Kamara is coming off one of his best rushing games this year when he ran for 83 yards against Carolina in Week 10.
Rhamondre Stevenson vs. CIN
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Everyone is obviously goo-goo, ga-ga against TreVeyon Henderson, but if Stevenson (toe) is healthy enough to play, he’s in a great position. The Bengals have given up the most FPPGs to opposing running backs this season, including the most touchdowns.
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RB’s 5.36 YPC allowed ranks third and he’s dead last in run rate.
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Even though Henderson has been explosive and impressive, I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see Stevenson in a 50-50 split.
Kenneth Gainwell vs. CHI
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Jaylen Warren suffers ankle injury; he posted a DNP and an LP to start the week of practice. Even if Warren plays, you think he’ll be somewhat compromised, meaning Gainwell should have a healthy share.
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The match is impeccable. The Steelers have the fifth-highest outside run rate and the Bears have had a lot of trouble containing outside runs. According to Next Gen Stats, the 6.01 YPC allowed on outside runs ranks second and Chicago is fifth in terms of explosive run rate allowed to the outside.
Wide receivers
Cédric Tillman against LV
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Kyu Blu Kelly has been BRUTAL as an outside corner, and as a result, the Raiders have allowed the fourth-most fantasy points per game to outside receivers, including the third-most receptions and yards.
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I pointed out earlier the lack of pressure generated by this defensive line, and with Sanders in there, his increased arm strength can help unlock Tillman’s route tree.
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According to Reception Perception, Tillman’s two most popular routes were digs and slants where he also posted strong success rates. This pairs well with Sanders. His reception perception graph shows that Shedeur also favors breaking routes.
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Not counting screens and checks, Sanders targeted players on incurable routes on 32.5% of his throws (just 18.2% on outbound routes).
Jalen Coker vs. SF
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Cokeheads are all the rage! The slot receivers did a serious job against the Niners. Greg Dortch, of all people, scored a touchdown and posted 18.6 PPR points last week and slot men like Wan’Dale Robinson (13.6 PPR) and Jaylin Noel (11.3 PPR) have also done pretty well in recent weeks.
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Overall, the Niners gave up the most FPPG to receivers lined up inside.
Michael Wilson vs. JAX
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With Marvin Harrison Jr. out for another week, let’s take a look back at the guy who caught 15 passes for 185 yards last week.
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The Jags have been criticized by outside receivers at various points this season and, overall, this secondary has allowed the third-largest FPPG to receive receivers lined up on the outside.
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The projected total of 48.5 for this matchup suggests the points could flow to both sides.
Rashid Shaheed vs. TEN
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JSN is in an exceptional situation, but the match is also excellent for Shaheed. The Titans’ 71.1 percent completion rate allowed to outside receivers ranks last in the NFL. They have given up the fifth most receptions, yards and fantasy points per game on the road.
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The Titans are also pretty prone to giving up big plays. The 10.1 yards per pass attempt to outside receivers ranks second, while the five touchdowns given up on deep passes are tied for third. For a deep threat like Shaheed, he could be one big play away from being quite profitable in fantasy this week.
Tight ends
Hunter Henry vs. CIN
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Triple H has the pedigree to be a true TE1 this week. This is probably every fantasy analyst’s favorite streaming TE, as the Bengals have been. terrible defend the position, giving up the most fantasy points per game.
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Eight different tight ends have scored double-digit PPR points against the Bengals in their last eight matchups.
