Using matchup data, I have 13 sleepers that could help propel your fantasy football teams to the Fantasy Finals. Good luck and here we go….
Quarterbacks
JJ McCarthy vs. NYG
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The Giants have given up the second-most fantasy points at the quarterback position, with eight of the last nine throwing at least two touchdowns.
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McCarthy, after looking like a worse version of Zach Wilson, has since stabilized over his last two games, accounting for three touchdowns in consecutive games.
Aaron Rodgers vs. DET
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Safety Kerby Joseph has been out for Detroit since Week 7 and CB Terrion Arnold, who has struggled with injuries since Week 6, played Week 9 before leaving Week 10 mid-game. He returned briefly in Week 13 but was recently placed on IR with a shoulder injury.
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As a result, the Lions’ pass defense gradually deteriorated. Since Arnold’s injury in Week 10, the Lions have allowed the most passing yards, are tied for the third-most passing touchdowns allowed and overall have allowed the second-highest EPA per dropback, according to Next Gen Stats.
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Given that the Steelers pass defense is also one of the 10 worst in the NFL, it’s no surprise that this game has the highest projected point total all week at 52.
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Rodgers himself is coming off back-to-back touchdown games and is playing well.
Tyler Shough vs. NYJ
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The Jets have the third fewest sacks and have incredibly ZERO interceptions through 15 games. This bodes well for the rookie who is playing well.
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Over his last five games, while throwing to Chris Olave and a bunch of Rand-o’s, he completed an impressive 70% of his passes while averaging 236 yards per game with a 93.7 rating.
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Shough has scored at least two touchdowns in two of his last three games and what’s really intriguing is that he’s run the rock A LOT, averaging seven rushing attempts per game during that three-game stretch.
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Bryce Young against tuberculosis
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An “emergency break” game, Young has about as wide a range of outcomes as possible. That being said, the ceiling is pretty good against a Bucs defense that has allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to QBs.
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Six straight quarterbacks have scored 2+ touchdowns against Tampa Bay.
Running backs
Audric Estimé against NYJ
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With Devin Neal placed on IR and with Alvin Kamara with DNP Wednesday/Thursday, expect a 50-50 split between Estimé and Evan Hull.
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This is what I wrote about this backfield in my most recent snapshot share report, “Once Devin Neal injured his hamstring, Estimé and Evan Hull split the running backs, but notably, Estimé ran more routes (14 to 8) and had a solid receiving line (3/3/39). Hull did not record a target. Hull is the more interesting athlete with 4.47 speed as opposed to Estimé’s 4.58 in professional time (he ran a horrible 4.71 at the combine).
Kimani Vidal vs. DAL
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If you just saw the box score, you would have thought Omarion Hampton played the majority of the snaps, but in reality, Vidal won almost 65% of the snaps. I expect Hampton to see another slight increase in playing time this week, but even in a 50-50 split, Vidal can be productive against Dallas.
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The Cowboys allow the seventh-most fantasy points, the third-highest explosive rush rate and are the eighth-worst in yards per carry allowed to opposing backs (4.56).
Jawhar Jordan vs. LV
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Woody Marks (ankle) was DNP Wednesday and Thursday. Although Nick Chubb (ribs) has returned to practice, he hasn’t necessarily inspired a lot of confidence when he’s been on the field this season. Meanwhile, Jordan is coming off a tremendous game, throwing for 101 yards, the Texans’ first 100-yard rusher OF THE SEASON.
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The Raiders have given up at least 16.5 PPR points to running backs in five of the last six games they have played.
Emanuel Wilson vs. CHI
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Watch the practice reports, but Josh Jacobs has missed practice all week, his availability looks very shaky for Saturday’s game against the Bears.
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If Jacobs is out, Wilson is in a good position against a Chicago defense that allows 4.79 YPC to opposing backs, the sixth-worst mark in the NFL. They also rank in the bottom 10 in Explosive Run Rate and Run Rate.
Wide receivers
Jayden Reed vs. CHI
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Christian Watson appears to be playing, as does Dontayvion Wicks, which takes the edge off Reed’s ceiling, but there’s no doubt that Watson and Wicks are weathering their respective injuries. Watson, remember, had to be checked out at a local hospital last week after suffering a chest injury and it’s a semi-short week since the game is played on Saturday.
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The matchup is solid as the Bears allow the third-most fantasy points to receivers lining up inside. Last week, this defense gave up a big play to Browns slot WR Isaiah Bond, who finished with 10.9 PPR points. Just a few weeks ago, Reed posted a healthy 9.3 PPR points with a 4/4/31 line adding 22 rushing yards.
Quentin Johnston vs. DAL
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QJ missed last week with a groin injury, but it appears he’s close to returning. He completed two limited practices to start the week.
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If he takes his chance, he’s in a perfect position against a Cowboys defense that simply can’t stop outside receivers, ranking dead last in fantasy points allowed on the outside.
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And to add to the misery, top corner Daron Bland will likely need a second surgery on his foot.
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They have allowed the second-most passing yards while the 16 touchdowns allowed to outside receivers rank dead last.
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The leading outside receivers have scored double-digit PPR points against this unit in six of their last seven matchups, with only the JJ McCarthy-led Vikings failing to do so last week.
Adonai Mitchell vs. NO
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This seems like a weekly occurrence putting AD on this list, but he once again has a tantalizing matchup against the Saints, who have allowed the fourth-most touchdowns on the road. The 63% completion rate allowed to the outside ranks in the bottom eight.
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Mitchell is coming off a solid game, posting a 9/6/58/TD slash line, which was the second time in three games where he scored at least 17 PPR points.
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The volume cannot be ignored as he is averaging 8.0 targets per game over his last five games.
Jauan Jennings vs. IND
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49ers WR Ricky Pearsall and Colts CB Sauce Gardner missed practice Thursday to open the week. We obviously still have a ways to go as this is a Monday night game, but if Pearsall misses, and that seems really iffy for him, that opens up a huge target share for Jennings. We’ll see on Sauce but he hasn’t played since playing two snaps in Week 13.
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With Gardner’s absence, the Colts have allowed FIVE different outside receivers to record double-digit PPR points in just three games.
Tight ends
Darren Waller vs. CIN
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Waller just scored two touchdowns and you already know the story with Cincy; They are by far the worst defense against tight ends this year.
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The Bengals are dead last in yards, receptions and touchdowns allowed at this position group.
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The only reason Waller isn’t a perfect start is because the Dolphins are deploying rookie signal-caller Quinn Ewers, whose arm strength might be worse than Tua Tagovailoa’s. Fasten your seat belt.
