It can be easy to lean in and question even the simplest go/sit decisions, especially in the fantasy football playoffs. Can we trust the recent boom performance? Should we stick with the stars who got us into the playoffs and have disappointed as of late? Dalton Del Don is here to help us gauge the reliability of certain players during Fantasy’s biggest weeks.
Brian Robinson Jr., Washington Commanders
Robinson Jr. lost two fumbles in the first 17 minutes of last week’s game, when he had his worst fantasy performance of the season in the semifinals. Robinson Jr. hadn’t committed a single fumble all season before Sunday’s game, and he was facing an Eagles defense that came in, allowing lowest EPA/rush since week 9. Philadelphia hasn’t let a running back run for 100 yards this season, and the Eagles have given up the fewest adapted peak schedule Fantasy points to RBs over the previous five weeks. Additionally, Robinson Jr. has been sensitive to the game script all year, and the Commanders were trailing for most of the game.
Robinson Jr. now carries additional risk if he loses another fumble early in Week 17, but he should otherwise remain Washington’s workhorse. The Commanders are four-point favorites with a healthy implied team total (26.5 points), so Sunday night’s game is more favorable. Robinson Jr. had 5.1 YPC at home this season and sees good usage in the red zone. He can be trusted among the top 20 RBs this week.
Bucky Irving, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Irving had a good game last week, but Fantasy managers were frustrated that he didn’t play for most of the fourth quarter. Irving saw nothing in the last 10 minutes (15 games), ceding playing time to Rachaad White. Irving is shaky in pass protection, but White lost a fumble to end the game. Even though White remains the Bucs’ most reliable guard in pass protection, the game script should prove favorable to Irving in the Fantasy Championship.
Irving saw 17 of 25 RB opportunities through three quarters last week, and Tampa Bay is an eight-point favorite on Sunday. The Buccaneers have the highest implied team total (29.5 points) in the league this week against a Carolina defense allowing the most schedule-adjusted running fantasy points to RBs over the past five weeks. Irving is a budding star who ranks third in the NFL in missed tackles forced per attemptand he appears to have recovered from his back injury.
White remains a thorn, but Irving can be fully trusted as a top-10 Fantasy pick.
Garrett Wilson, New York Jets
Wilson has been the WR21 in fantasy points per game this season, which is considered a big disappointment considering his ADP. It took Davante Adams a few games to get healthy and acclimated to New York after the trade, but he has been the Jets’ clear WR1 over the past six weeks. Wilson is Fantasy’s WR41 and has a 22.5% target share since Week 10; Adams has a 32.5% target share over that span (fourth highest in the league). Wilson saw 11.0 targets per game without Adams on the field, but he saw 8.2 with him.
Wilson gets a fading Bills pass defense allowing wide receivers to score the fifth-most schedule-adjusted fantasy points over the past five weeks. Wilson is frustratedAnd the squeaky wheel may receive grease this week. But Aaron Rodgers continued to favor his buddy Adamsand New York’s implied team total is 17.5 points. Given his beta usage and struggling with a Jets offense that scored just nine points without ever throwing a punt last week, Wilson’s confidence level has fallen to the low-end WR2. And he would have become a candidate for the bench Shouldn’t Rodgers be able to go.
Jerry Jeudy, Cleveland Browns
Jeudy was Fantasy’s WR4 in Weeks 11-15, as only Ja’Marr Chase, Davante Adams, and Puka Nacua averaged more Fantasy points during that five-game span. But the QB switch from Jameis Winston to Dorian Thompson-Robinson ended that party as expected last week; DTR had zero net passing yards at halftime. The Browns produced only 67 catchable air yards; they averaged 171 with Winston starting.
Thompson-Robinson is 0 for 11 with three picks passes thrown more than 15 yards this season. He is a major problem for Cleveland’s pass catchersand DTR was named Browns starter again at week 17 if you are healthy. Winston was inactive last week due to a shoulder injury, and Bailey Zappe is the team’s QB3. Cleveland has an anemic implied total of 16.5 points this week.
If Winston is healthy and starting, Jeudy’s fantasy value can be resurrected. But in addition, he has his place on the benches during the week of the Fantasy championship.
